Wittenberg

Xheneral/General => Wittenberg => Topic started by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 14, 2023, 06:37:27 PM

Title: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 14, 2023, 06:37:27 PM
The mighty Kwisatz-Haderach of Elections, @Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB , does not want people chatting on the official thread. So here is a thread to discuss the election as it starts to unfold tomorrow morning.

Elections are always so special, and often get really weird in our funny little country. Small parties turn out to have surprising reach, or coalitions morph dramatically with the change of a few votes.

Another one is upon us! Zooks!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 15, 2023, 06:59:13 AM
Well as of now, I've emailed the ballots, fixed the glitch that gave the wrong thread for voting on the emailed ballots, fixed the Fiova candidates glitch, and sent two political party campaign messages. You would think this being my 4th election as SoS I would remember that provincial candidates are hard-wired and only MPF can input them!

Ah well, it wouldn't be a Talossan General Election without at least one problem to fix! Fiovans who vote on the database will see the correct candidates, and I will resend the Fiova ballots in a few minutes.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 15, 2023, 07:04:08 AM
Ok I re-emailed (is that a word?) the ballots to all Fiovans who haven't already voted!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 15, 2023, 07:17:28 AM
It's a hard and complicated job, and you're stuck using a tool that's no longer quite suitable -- everyone understands, don't worry!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 15, 2023, 07:30:14 AM
I got the two mailers, but my ballot went to spam, interestingly enough.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 15, 2023, 11:00:57 AM
18 votes cast so far (14.06%). Not a bad turnout for the first 7 hours of the election. I was awake at 1:30 AM this morning fretting over all the stuff so I started the election super early this morning!!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 15, 2023, 11:02:34 AM
Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 15, 2023, 07:30:14 AMI got the two mailers, but my ballot went to spam, interestingly enough.

It seems that emails from sos@talossa.ca sometimes end up in spam, but emails I send directly from Outlook don't. Everyone should always check their spam folders just in case!

Also, @Breneir Tzaracomprada can we post regular updates on social media for those non-Witt users who may be blissfully unaware that an election is underway?
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 15, 2023, 11:13:44 AM
Quote from: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 15, 2023, 11:02:34 AMAlso, @Breneir Tzaracomprada can we post regular updates on social media for those non-Witt users who may be blissfully unaware that an election is underway?

That's smart and a good idea.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 15, 2023, 02:22:50 PM
Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 15, 2023, 11:13:44 AM
Quote from: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 15, 2023, 11:02:34 AMAlso, @Breneir Tzaracomprada can we post regular updates on social media for those non-Witt users who may be blissfully unaware that an election is underway?

That's smart and a good idea.

I've been known to have a good idea every now and then!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: mximo on September 15, 2023, 08:04:32 PM
The job I don't want SoS.

Good job.

Mximo
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Glüc da Dhi S.H. on September 16, 2023, 12:42:26 AM
Ah yes, the election. Exciting stuff!
We have the strongest field in years imho. Hopefully we'll get a record high turnout too. That would be 13 voters I think, so definitely doable if some new people vote as well.

Is Gimme Shelter gonna win again? Is Bohemian Rhapsody returning to it's former glory. Maybe people are done with the incumbents and cause an upset by electing Enjoy the Silence instead? So many options...

I need some time to listen to all the candidates (https://wittenberg.talossa.com/index.php?topic=2559.msg22752#msg22752) before voting by sending a private message to @Ian Plätschisch.







Oh... That election.
Eh, best vote there too
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 25, 2023, 09:08:20 AM
47% turnout so far.  Not bad, but hopefully we can get nearer to last election's huge 72.5% turnout.  The baseline has usually hovered around 50 to 60%.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 25, 2023, 10:43:00 AM
I'll be sending out ballots to non-voters for a third and final time in the next day or two.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 26, 2023, 09:35:22 AM
A spike up to 57% turnout now -- 10% higher, which is a huge increase in just a day!  We're right about at the median for turnout, with five more days to go.  Assuming votes trickle in still, turnout is looking pretty good but not great.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 26, 2023, 09:56:11 AM
The upticks seem to come directly after I re-send ballots. I may do it for a fourth time just prior to the close of the election, though I normally only send it out three times.

Sadly, there could be up to 6 citizens who lose their citizenship if they don't vote. I'll be double checking if those six citizens responded to the census, which will save them so fingers crossed.

We also have 56 citizens that have not yet voted, which is a number I dislike!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 26, 2023, 10:26:27 AM
It might be interesting to keep track of stuff like that. Like when do spikes in voting come, who votes more likely than not, and so on. A project for a future day!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 30, 2023, 08:45:22 AM
Turnout is now up to 65.1%!  I plugged that number into the Infotecă (https://talossa.com/infoteca/) data, and it's looking very respectable!

(https://i.imgur.com/ACAAogL.png)

Average turnout is around 60%, so that's a very nice number.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: þerxh Sant-Enogat on September 30, 2023, 09:09:22 AM
The X (ex-Twitter) account "Chancery of the Kingdom of Talossa", subtitled "conducts elections", has been only active between 2018 and 2019, and refers to talossa.ca
Is there a way to transfer/reactivate administration ? or delete ?
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 30, 2023, 09:33:42 AM
This is kind of my business, because it is illegal to have a site or social media account that appears to be official but is not actually controlled by the government. But I am 100% sure it's just an oversight. Thank you for letting us know!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 30, 2023, 10:11:04 AM
I've never heard of this account so I won't be of any use.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 30, 2023, 10:46:47 AM
Fortunately the Twitter account was linked to the official email account for the Chancery and I was able to reset the password. It is now under the control of the Chancery.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 30, 2023, 10:48:37 AM
Quote from: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 30, 2023, 10:46:47 AMFortunately the Twitter account was linked to the official email account for the Chancery and I was able to reset the password. It is now under the control of the Chancery.
Excellent! Fast work!

I'm not sure anyone expects you to also administer some social media stuff in addition to your current duties, by the way. Just because it exists doesn't mean it's useful or your job to do. This is just my personal opinion, but I think you should feel free to leave it dormant.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Glüc da Dhi S.H. on September 30, 2023, 10:52:28 AM
Quote from: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 30, 2023, 10:11:04 AMI've never heard of this account so I won't be of any use.
I thought I sent you the password at the time? There should be a facebook account as well.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 30, 2023, 11:18:44 AM
Quote from: Glüc da Dhi S.H. on September 30, 2023, 10:52:28 AM
Quote from: Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB on September 30, 2023, 10:11:04 AMI've never heard of this account so I won't be of any use.
I thought I sent you the password at the time? There should be a facebook account as well.

That's entirely possible and I could have just forgotten.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on October 01, 2023, 07:23:33 AM
Last day!!!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on October 01, 2023, 02:50:15 PM
72.09% turnout -- one more voter and we will top the last election's turnout of 72.50%!  Very surprising!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Glüc da Dhi S.H. on October 01, 2023, 02:53:04 PM
In 40 minutes the TMT 20 reveal will start on discord. An excellent opportunity for discussing election night as well, like in the old days on Chatzy. I hear there might be an exit poll. Come join us everyone!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on October 01, 2023, 04:16:30 PM
Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on October 01, 2023, 02:50:15 PM72.09% turnout -- one more voter and we will top the last election's turnout of 72.50%!  Very surprising!
We did it!  94 voters bumps us up to 72.87%!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Ian Plätschisch on October 01, 2023, 05:53:29 PM
I'm currently working on an exit poll and will be hanging out in the Discord voice chat if anyone wants to have an election night watch party
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Ian Plätschisch on October 01, 2023, 06:17:33 PM
VERY SCIENTIFIC PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL

Talossan National Congress: 100
Free Democrats of Talossa: 88
Dien: 12

This may not be as big of a blowout as people think.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Ian Plätschisch on October 01, 2023, 06:21:28 PM
The Senate race in Maricopa is too close to call but I would give the slightest edge to S:reu T. Davinescu
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on October 01, 2023, 06:33:02 PM
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on October 01, 2023, 06:17:33 PMVERY SCIENTIFIC PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL

Talossan National Congress: 100
Free Democrats of Talossa: 88
Dien: 12

This may not be as big of a blowout as people think.
Wow.  I'd better temper my expectations!  What's your methodology?  Randomly select people and ask them who they voted for?
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Ian Plätschisch on October 01, 2023, 06:46:34 PM
Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on October 01, 2023, 06:33:02 PMWow.  I'd better temper my expectations!  What's your methodology?  Randomly select people and ask them who they voted for?
My methods are proprietary
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on October 01, 2023, 07:31:25 PM
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on October 01, 2023, 06:17:33 PMVERY SCIENTIFIC PRELIMINARY EXIT POLL

Talossan National Congress: 100
Free Democrats of Talossa: 88
Dien: 12

This may not be as big of a blowout as people think.
Woooowww!  This was almost exactly correct!
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Miestră Schivă, UrN on October 01, 2023, 07:56:56 PM
I deleted a previous reaction post because almost everything in it was wrong. :D

The only thing I can say at this point is that a Free Democrat preference tipped the balance in favor of the new Senator from Florencia, so maybe this bodes well for a new era of cooperation...
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Miestră Schivă, UrN on October 01, 2023, 08:17:39 PM
... all right, one more reaction.

The TNC were very confident going into this election because of high turnout. This appears to have been on the assumption that new voters were going to block-vote for the TNC like they did last time. I noted in the first week of the election, however, that new voters were slow to turn out, and on that basis I made the second FreeDems campaign email a pitch to them. I don't think it had huge success; in absolute terms, the FreeDem vote is pretty much the same as the "combined monarchy-skeptical" vote from last time (minus 1, being a certain ex-CpI ragemonster :D). But the crucial thing is that the TNC vote dropped in absolute terms, from 46 to 41. So maybe it was the FreeDems pitch; maybe re-electing a government is just not as exciting as overthrowing a nine-term government.

The other crucial thing was that every single member of the Free Democrats voted, better than we did last time. Without that, we would not be in the position we are now, where no party has the numbers on its own to go to the King and ask for their Seneschal candidate to be appointed. There will be some kind of deal, or there will be a Cosa vote. Exciting times. Third-best ever result for the FreeDems (in seats, rather than absolute votes).
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Miestră Schivă, UrN on October 05, 2023, 02:56:38 AM
The triumphant return of My Graphs

59cosa-1.png

59cosa-2.png

59cosa-3.png
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: mximo on October 06, 2023, 12:20:46 AM
Nice I have my color and name in the graph ;)))

Mximo
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: Miestră Schivă, UrN on October 06, 2023, 03:40:07 PM
Quote from: mximo on October 06, 2023, 12:20:46 AMNice I have my color and name in the graph ;)))

Every party/independent candidate who stood in 2 or more elections has their own colour/line, no matter if they may have changed party names a dozen or more times.
Title: Re: 59th Election Discussion
Post by: mximo on October 06, 2023, 10:21:44 PM
Some have a lot of pocket votes
Me i have a lot of party names ;)))

Mximo