Wittenberg

In the last election the Free Democrats argued that the "Infoteca" project would be of marginal value since whatever numbers it came up with would be (a) essentially irrelevant to the real health of Talossa, and (b) too easy to "cheat" with for political benefit. And the TNC have just proven we were right about the second part, at least, to wit:

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 12, 2023, 09:22:25 AMUnder the Talossan National Congress, when your government tells you that immigration has positively erupted, you don't need to wonder if that's true, or spend an hour doing research to try to figure it out.  You can just look at the public data (https://talossa.com/infoteca/) and see the good news!

(https://i.imgur.com/xpxwuZM.png) (https://talossa.com/infoteca/)

Note that these are Immigration Applications, not actual new citizens. As the Free Democrats pointed out in a Terpelaziun (https://wittenberg.talossa.com/index.php?topic=2557.0). It's just too easy to speak miéida da toro.

Nonetheless, please answer the poll!

Quote from: Miestră Schivă, UrN on September 14, 2023, 04:49:08 PMNote that these are Immigration Applications, not actual new citizens. As the Free Democrats pointed out in a Terpelaziun (https://wittenberg.talossa.com/index.php?topic=2557.0). It's just too easy to speak miéida da toro.

Infotecă (https://talossa.com/infoteca/) doesn't just have one graph or set of numbers, don't worry!  There's a matching visualization for "actual new citizens," too!


And the data on this one actually goes further back, all the way to the start of 2019.

Hey, would you look at that... the immigration rate for the past six months is tied for the highest rate in history, and that's from a standing start with a dead website for two weeks before we cleaned it all up!

So don't worry... there's way more than just one set of numbers.  And I would be profoundly delighted to discuss any or all of them!  Maybe we should even compare data from different time periods.

Don't trust any politician who tries to tell you that any one number is the whole picture. But also don't trust any politician who tries to tell you that you'll see better when you're blind to all of them!

For a while I had both sets of immigration numbers on the same chart, but I changed it to two charts because the scale was so different that it was hard to read naturalizations. Especially since throughout this very long stretch of time there were almost zero immigrants. A really really long time actually. One immigrant during all of 2021!

Auto-generated trendlines with no context are my least favorite part of data viz

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on September 14, 2023, 05:23:13 PMAuto-generated trendlines with no context are my least favorite part of data viz

There was a lot of concern that maintaining this data would be really time-consuming or difficult. When we set this up, we were very sensitive to that and deliberately designed it so that the system only takes one or two minutes to update each month. That means that the charts are generated automatically, too.

But it also means that there is a full set of spreadsheet tables filled with data, just waiting for enterprising journalists and analysts to work with. I would love to see much better visualizations than these crude ones! You are kind of a wizard that stuff, as I recall. Maybe you want to take a crack at that sometime and relaunch your publication?

It's not so much that I think you should spend a lot of time on them, it's that low effort ones can be misleading (even if it's unintentional) and it's often better to not include them at all.

For example, I see you chose an exponential trend line for the number of applications. Do you have a justification for that, other than that it looks nice? Linear models are more parsimonious, and so are preferred in the absence of strong evidence for other models. I also know that linear trend lines  are the default in Excel, so this was a conscious choice to depict exponential growth even though you are pretty much admitting you didn't spend any time thinking about it.

Of course, the reason this is important is that anyone who looks at the chart will get an impression that immigration will probably continue to "grow exponentially" even if that's not an appropriate conclusion based on the data.

IMFAO it would be better to show a moving average here instead of a trend line but now we are really going down the rabbit hole. I would be willing to set that up if you give me the keys.

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on September 14, 2023, 05:40:09 PMIMFAO it would be better to show a moving average here instead of a trend line but now we are really going down the rabbit hole. I would be willing to set that up if you give me the keys.

We should definitely make that happen, since it sounds like you are going to be able to put a great spin on how we see this data. I had a really hard time setting up a moving average, since I thought I wasn't doing it right... The 3-month moving average seemed visually completely identical to a linear trend.

Actually, now that I think about it, there isn't any real reason to wait. Let's get it improved and better right now! That's the whole point of the system. @Breneir Tzaracomprada , can we appoint him as a deputy for the purposes of accessing this data and improving visualizations and the like? If that's okay with you, Ian, for to have that for the next month or two (or longer!) Or wait, maybe some other office... Let me get back to you very soon and let's figure out how to make this happen! This is exactly what I was hoping would result! Very excited that a data guru is tempted by our juicy columns of numbers.

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 14, 2023, 05:57:43 PM

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on September 14, 2023, 05:40:09 PMIMFAO it would be better to show a moving average here instead of a trend line but now we are really going down the rabbit hole. I would be willing to set that up if you give me the keys.

Actually, now that I think about it, there isn't any real reason to wait. Let's get it improved and better right now! That's the whole point of the system. @Breneir Tzaracomprada , can we appoint him as a deputy for the purposes of accessing this data and improving visualizations and the like? If that's okay with you, Ian, for to have that for the next month or two (or longer!) Or wait, maybe some other office... Let me get back to you very soon and let's figure out how to make this happen! This is exactly what I was hoping would result! Very excited that a data guru is tempted by our juicy columns of numbers.

Of course, so appointed for @Ian Plätschisch. Nice to see Infoteca is a public resource with bipartisan investment.

Quote from: Breneir Tzaracomprada on September 14, 2023, 06:37:38 PM

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 14, 2023, 05:57:43 PM

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on September 14, 2023, 05:40:09 PMIMFAO it would be better to show a moving average here instead of a trend line but now we are really going down the rabbit hole. I would be willing to set that up if you give me the keys.

Actually, now that I think about it, there isn't any real reason to wait. Let's get it improved and better right now! That's the whole point of the system. @Breneir Tzaracomprada , can we appoint him as a deputy for the purposes of accessing this data and improving visualizations and the like? If that's okay with you, Ian, for to have that for the next month or two (or longer!) Or wait, maybe some other office... Let me get back to you very soon and let's figure out how to make this happen! This is exactly what I was hoping would result! Very excited that a data guru is tempted by our juicy columns of numbers.

Of course, so appointed for @Ian Plätschisch. Nice to see Infoteca is a public resource with bipartisan investment.

Wait I got excited, he may not want to join the government itself or something. I sent him a PM. I do really want to make this happen though.

I got ahead of myself imagining like a 12 axis hyperchart.

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on September 14, 2023, 05:35:36 PMOf course, the reason this is important is that anyone who looks at the chart will get an impression that immigration will probably continue to "grow exponentially" even if that's not an appropriate conclusion based on the data.

(https://frinkiac.com/meme/S08E11/287252.jpg?b64lines=SUYgVEhFU0UKIFRSRU5EUyBDT05USU5VRS4uLg==)

The TNC election mailout just proves my point about how easy it is to prevaricate with these bogus statistics. Immigration *applications* are much increased, that's true - which may or may not say something about MinSTUFF's social media outreach. But actual *immigrants* are not nearly so much - which says a lot about the attractiveness of actual Talossan life under the TNC, once people stop and have a look for five minutes.

Again, as mentioned just a few posts ago in this very thread, the immigration rate over the past 6 months is tied for the highest immigration rate in our history.

As a citizen for over 25 years now, I have seen Talossa grow and change from one migratory wave to another. Talossa is a community. Many people silently promote Talossa without asking for a medal or public prestige.
Some citizens will also make efforts and then have challenges or difficulties in their lives before returning. Others simply enjoy being a free citizen of Talossa. It is unhealthy to make participation statistics.

Talossa's power of attraction and influence in the global arena can be significantly enhanced by prioritizing the quality of its spokespersons. While quantity may provide a temporary boost, it is the expertise, credibility, and effective communication of our representatives that will leave a lasting impression on the world. By investing in individuals who embody the values and ideals of Talossa, we can build a stronger future for our nation.

Mximo Carbonèl

Quote from: mximo on September 15, 2023, 07:49:20 PMIt is unhealthy to make participation statistics.

Yeah, there's definitely way more to our civic life then just a handful of numbers. Anyone who tries to sell you on the idea that this map is identical to the territory is trying to con you.

The way people interact with each other, the tenor of our discussions, the number of interesting things to do... These are all really important as well.

When collecting and analyzing data, quantitative research deals with numbers and statistics, while qualitative research deals with words and meanings. Both are important for gaining different kinds of knowledge.

In effect, polling is a component of qualitative research, as would be shown in the results of elections to be linked to the statements and actions of the individuals and organizations involved in that given election.

What should be avoided is this:

Quote from: Breneir Tzaracomprada on September 14, 2023, 06:37:38 PM

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 14, 2023, 05:57:43 PM

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on September 14, 2023, 05:40:09 PMIMFAO it would be better to show a moving average here instead of a trend line but now we are really going down the rabbit hole. I would be willing to set that up if you give me the keys.

Actually, now that I think about it, there isn't any real reason to wait. Let's get it improved and better right now! That's the whole point of the system. @Breneir Tzaracomprada , can we appoint him as a deputy for the purposes of accessing this data and improving visualizations and the like? If that's okay with you, Ian, for to have that for the next month or two (or longer!) Or wait, maybe some other office... Let me get back to you very soon and let's figure out how to make this happen! This is exactly what I was hoping would result! Very excited that a data guru is tempted by our juicy columns of numbers.

Of course, so appointed for @Ian Plätschisch. Nice to see Infoteca is a public resource with bipartisan investment.

Okay, we're working on figuring out the language for a new permanent secretary position right now. Not something to do a lot of regular work, by just something to allow him to edit and improve how we visualize our data. I already took his advice already and switched the trend lines over to linear.

Since it's election season and one candidate has previously served, I thought it might also be fun to make a version of the chart that includes terms of office. But it won't automatically update, so I won't put it on the spreadsheet itself, and said will just post it here.

I have pretty much abandoned the idea of automating the data gathering process. It would take me probably an hour at the barest minimum to get the code together, test it, and set it up. And since it takes about 1 minute total per month to update, automating the process couldn't conceivably be worth it in time and effort.

Nice to see that, so far, in the poll 75% of respondents have used Infoteca.

Yeah. I'm not sure that means much though. It wasn't really an effort to find out what people think in good faith, and that's true even if it backfired. I would suspect that the vast majority of our citizens have never even heard of the service still, except for those who pay moderate to close attention to the national conversation. It would be good to actually get some real sense of what people think about stuff like this... Years ago, @Glüc da Dhi S.H. conducted the first and only scientific poll of our country. I think it would be worthwhile to commission him to do it again and get real data on how many people are aware of services like the wiki, the database, features of our website, the college of arms, etc. I wish I had actually thought of this when we were hashing out the party platform in our private board.

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 16, 2023, 11:41:38 AM

Quote from: Breneir Tzaracomprada on September 14, 2023, 06:37:38 PM

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 14, 2023, 05:57:43 PM

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on September 14, 2023, 05:40:09 PMIMFAO it would be better to show a moving average here instead of a trend line but now we are really going down the rabbit hole. I would be willing to set that up if you give me the keys.

Actually, now that I think about it, there isn't any real reason to wait. Let's get it improved and better right now! That's the whole point of the system. @Breneir Tzaracomprada , can we appoint him as a deputy for the purposes of accessing this data and improving visualizations and the like? If that's okay with you, Ian, for to have that for the next month or two (or longer!) Or wait, maybe some other office... Let me get back to you very soon and let's figure out how to make this happen! This is exactly what I was hoping would result! Very excited that a data guru is tempted by our juicy columns of numbers.

Of course, so appointed for @Ian Plätschisch. Nice to see Infoteca is a public resource with bipartisan investment.

Okay, we're working on figuring out the language for a new permanent secretary position right now. Not something to do a lot of regular work, by just something to allow him to edit and improve how we visualize our data. I already took his advice already and switched the trend lines over to linear.

Since it's election season and one candidate has previously served, I thought it might also be fun to make a version of the chart that includes terms of office. But it won't automatically update, so I won't put it on the spreadsheet itself, and said will just post it here.

I have pretty much abandoned the idea of automating the data gathering process. It would take me probably an hour at the barest minimum to get the code together, test it, and set it up. And since it takes about 1 minute total per month to update, automating the process couldn't conceivably be worth it in time and effort.

@Baron Alexandreu Davinescu @Ian Plätschisch
Please let me know when you have finalized language for the new Perm Sec position.

Quote from: Breneir Tzaracomprada on September 17, 2023, 07:52:00 PM

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 16, 2023, 11:41:38 AM

Quote from: Breneir Tzaracomprada on September 14, 2023, 06:37:38 PM

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 14, 2023, 05:57:43 PM

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on September 14, 2023, 05:40:09 PMIMFAO it would be better to show a moving average here instead of a trend line but now we are really going down the rabbit hole. I would be willing to set that up if you give me the keys.

Actually, now that I think about it, there isn't any real reason to wait. Let's get it improved and better right now! That's the whole point of the system. @Breneir Tzaracomprada , can we appoint him as a deputy for the purposes of accessing this data and improving visualizations and the like? If that's okay with you, Ian, for to have that for the next month or two (or longer!) Or wait, maybe some other office... Let me get back to you very soon and let's figure out how to make this happen! This is exactly what I was hoping would result! Very excited that a data guru is tempted by our juicy columns of numbers.

Of course, so appointed for @Ian Plätschisch. Nice to see Infoteca is a public resource with bipartisan investment.

Okay, we're working on figuring out the language for a new permanent secretary position right now. Not something to do a lot of regular work, by just something to allow him to edit and improve how we visualize our data. I already took his advice already and switched the trend lines over to linear.

Since it's election season and one candidate has previously served, I thought it might also be fun to make a version of the chart that includes terms of office. But it won't automatically update, so I won't put it on the spreadsheet itself, and said will just post it here.

I have pretty much abandoned the idea of automating the data gathering process. It would take me probably an hour at the barest minimum to get the code together, test it, and set it up. And since it takes about 1 minute total per month to update, automating the process couldn't conceivably be worth it in time and effort.

@Baron Alexandreu Davinescu @Ian Plätschisch
Please let me know when you have finalized language for the new Perm Sec position.

Ian has decided, not unjustifiably, that he thought it made more sense after the election before moving forward. C'est la vie.

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 17, 2023, 09:52:14 PM

Quote from: Breneir Tzaracomprada on September 17, 2023, 07:52:00 PM

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 16, 2023, 11:41:38 AM

Quote from: Breneir Tzaracomprada on September 14, 2023, 06:37:38 PM

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on September 14, 2023, 05:57:43 PM

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on September 14, 2023, 05:40:09 PMIMFAO it would be better to show a moving average here instead of a trend line but now we are really going down the rabbit hole. I would be willing to set that up if you give me the keys.

Actually, now that I think about it, there isn't any real reason to wait. Let's get it improved and better right now! That's the whole point of the system. @Breneir Tzaracomprada , can we appoint him as a deputy for the purposes of accessing this data and improving visualizations and the like? If that's okay with you, Ian, for to have that for the next month or two (or longer!) Or wait, maybe some other office... Let me get back to you very soon and let's figure out how to make this happen! This is exactly what I was hoping would result! Very excited that a data guru is tempted by our juicy columns of numbers.

Of course, so appointed for @Ian Plätschisch. Nice to see Infoteca is a public resource with bipartisan investment.

Okay, we're working on figuring out the language for a new permanent secretary position right now. Not something to do a lot of regular work, by just something to allow him to edit and improve how we visualize our data. I already took his advice already and switched the trend lines over to linear.

Since it's election season and one candidate has previously served, I thought it might also be fun to make a version of the chart that includes terms of office. But it won't automatically update, so I won't put it on the spreadsheet itself, and said will just post it here.

I have pretty much abandoned the idea of automating the data gathering process. It would take me probably an hour at the barest minimum to get the code together, test it, and set it up. And since it takes about 1 minute total per month to update, automating the process couldn't conceivably be worth it in time and effort.

@Baron Alexandreu Davinescu @Ian Plätschisch
Please let me know when you have finalized language for the new Perm Sec position.

Ian has decided, not unjustifiably, that he thought it made more sense after the election before moving forward. C'est la vie.

Yeah, understandable. Hopefully just a few weeks wait then...