FreeDems - 87
B - 33
LCC - 25
NPW - 23
TNC - 15
KLuP - 7
DIEN - 6
PT - 4
No exact science here, just trying to estimate the size of each party's draw.
The big story here I guess is my prediction of a dramatic decline for the LCC. This is really only because, when I founded the party just before the last election, there was literally no Monarchist competition, so it was the only game in town. Now there is the Balance Party for very conservative voters, Dien for very conservative voters who don't like the Balance Party's messaging, and the TNC for Monarchists who want to accept the compromise bill wholeheartedly.
I am pleased with the LCC's decision to carve out a unique position for itself (see its new 50 word statement), but it is only natural that it will not be able to get nearly as many votes as before. Obviously I hope it does better than what I am predicting.
The Balance Party's fortunes are heavily dependent on their ability to turn out the old RUMP base. That could really go either way. It went pretty poorly for the ZPT two elections ago, who won a meager 25 seats, even when the only other non-ceremonial Monarchist party at the time was AMP. However, that is partially because the family of the founder of that party did not vote. On the other hand, the LCC got a respectable 73 seats, which was in part due to ex-RUMP support.
I don't predict a lot of success for Dien, because I suspect that most conservative Monarchists are not really in Dien's "circle." Maybe I'm wrong but I don't see a big constituency for Dien's wholehearted support for the King outside of the camp who think the Balance Party's memes about hamster wheels are a slam dunk, or who are otherwise culturally attached to the old RUMP.
FYI this is not a rip on Dien; we should hang out the next time I'm in Savannah.
Recall that the PNP (Peculiar Nationalist Party, supported a ceremonial Monarchy) leader folded the party and joined the Free Democrats before the 55th Cosa. It appears about half of the party's support followed him there and the other half went to the NPW:
54th Cosa:
FREEDEM - 84
PNP - 25
NPW - 15
55th Cosa:
FREEDEM - 99
NPW - 28
So the NPW got 14% of the Cosa seats in the 55th, which is shockingly similar to the proportion of people who put the NPW's preferred option (a King/President duarchy) as their first choice in the referendum earlier this year:
10/72 = 13.89%
The NPW may have benefitted last time from a shortage of third parties (and there is no shortage of those this time), but there is strong evidence that their appeal has some staying power
My gut tells me that TNC support would mostly come from marginal FreeDem supporters (who might be getting bored of voting for the same party over and over and who now have another option to get the compromise proposal through), but the last time the TNC ran (way back in 2016) it mostly took support from the ModRads. Now, I'm not sure how relevant that is, but if it continues to be true it could be trouble for the LCC, which has now positioned itself as the most moderate party not wholeheartedly supporting the Compromise.
The FreeDem machinery and base are obviously in a class of their own compared to the other parties, and I can't remember the last time predicting the winner was so boring. However, I think there are just too many other parties for them to be able to improve on their 99 seats.
Finally, I predicted the jokester parties would do about as well as they usually do.
Maybe all of this is wrong, who knows.
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on May 06, 2021, 12:48:53 PM
The FreeDem machinery and base are obviously in a class of their own compared to the other parties
Why, thank you - though our "machinery" is nothing but "Miestră reading the list of people who haven't voted yet and haranguing them"
Your figures would mean 129 for 55RZ21, 39 against, and 32 undetermined, which is technically defined as "a goddamn mess". (Worth noting that the KLüP politely refused to join our joint statement.)
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on May 06, 2021, 12:22:23 PMFYI this is not a rip on Dien; we should hang out the next time I'm in Savannah.
Absolutely, except that I'm giving up my lease at the end of June. My job has taken me back to Bryson City, NC, so unless you're coming down to GA one weekend between now and June, I'll have to take you around Bryson. The upside is we have good craft beer.
FD: 80
B - 34
LCC - 40
NPW - 15
TNC - 12
KLuP - 8
DIEN - 7
PT - 4
No snubs, just predicting, I'm optimistic.... Is that a crime? xD
With numbers like that, the LCC might have to consider forming a government
Quote from: Miestră Schivă, UrN on May 06, 2021, 06:25:30 PM
With numbers like that, the LCC might have to consider forming a government
If I understand the numbers so would the free Dems?
I suppose unless and until someone else joins the list at https://talossa.net/members/xpb/activity/439/ I would estimate the number of Balançeu / Balance at a total of 1.
Quote from: Munditenens Tresplet on May 06, 2021, 03:04:59 PM
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on May 06, 2021, 12:22:23 PMFYI this is not a rip on Dien; we should hang out the next time I'm in Savannah.
Absolutely, except that I'm giving up my lease at the end of June. My job has taken me back to Bryson City, NC, so unless you're coming down to GA one weekend between now and June, I'll have to take you around Bryson. The upside is we have good craft beer.
I am actually coming to Savannah later this month, although I don't know how much time I'll have.
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on May 08, 2021, 09:43:32 PM
Quote from: Munditenens Tresplet on May 06, 2021, 03:04:59 PM
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on May 06, 2021, 12:22:23 PMFYI this is not a rip on Dien; we should hang out the next time I'm in Savannah.
Absolutely, except that I'm giving up my lease at the end of June. My job has taken me back to Bryson City, NC, so unless you're coming down to GA one weekend between now and June, I'll have to take you around Bryson. The upside is we have good craft beer.
I am actually coming to Savannah later this month, although I don't know how much time I'll have.
On a weekend, if so, which weekend? We can hit Leopold's (https://www.leopoldsicecream.com/) again if you get the time for it.
Anyone else want to hazard a prediction?
Quote from: Munditenens Tresplet on May 08, 2021, 10:03:29 PM
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on May 08, 2021, 09:43:32 PM
Quote from: Munditenens Tresplet on May 06, 2021, 03:04:59 PM
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on May 06, 2021, 12:22:23 PMFYI this is not a rip on Dien; we should hang out the next time I'm in Savannah.
Absolutely, except that I'm giving up my lease at the end of June. My job has taken me back to Bryson City, NC, so unless you're coming down to GA one weekend between now and June, I'll have to take you around Bryson. The upside is we have good craft beer.
I am actually coming to Savannah later this month, although I don't know how much time I'll have.
On a weekend, if so, which weekend? We can hit Leopold's (https://www.leopoldsicecream.com/) again if you get the time for it.
Unfortunately not on a weekend; I think it will be next Thursday.
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on May 18, 2021, 04:54:29 PM
Quote from: Munditenens Tresplet on May 08, 2021, 10:03:29 PM
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on May 08, 2021, 09:43:32 PM
Quote from: Munditenens Tresplet on May 06, 2021, 03:04:59 PM
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on May 06, 2021, 12:22:23 PMFYI this is not a rip on Dien; we should hang out the next time I'm in Savannah.
Absolutely, except that I'm giving up my lease at the end of June. My job has taken me back to Bryson City, NC, so unless you're coming down to GA one weekend between now and June, I'll have to take you around Bryson. The upside is we have good craft beer.
I am actually coming to Savannah later this month, although I don't know how much time I'll have.
On a weekend, if so, which weekend? We can hit Leopold's (https://www.leopoldsicecream.com/) again if you get the time for it.
Unfortunately not on a weekend; I think it will be next Thursday.
Ah, dang, we'll have to try getting up again another time then.
The good news is, my boss' boss was upset I left work for my grandma's funeral, so I quit my job in NC and will be back in Savannah indefinitely starting in June.
With two guesses, there's still some time to try your luck with predictions and be guaranteed to make the top three election predictors of this cycle!
RESULTS:
1. Me: 183
2. Txosue: 177
Not one for the record books but I'll take it.
It would have been totally humiliating for me to have participated; I was picking a Balançéu absolute majority :D
Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on May 06, 2021, 12:06:09 PM
FreeDems - 87
B - 33
LCC - 25
NPW - 23
TNC - 15
KLuP - 7
DIEN - 6
PT - 4
Ián got the top 3 parties almost perfect. The big misses were overestimating the Peculiarist turnout (from what I could tell, that party's cadre is pretty exhausted) and underestimating Dien's attractiveness to people who wanted the monarchical status quo but didn't want the "neo-RUMP" overtones of Balançéu.