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Mick!

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https://wittenberg.talossa.com/index.php?topic=2390.0

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on April 23, 2023, 08:55:05 PMHopefully also fun to watch. 

Yes, definitely! I enjoyed the dynamic between you two. Looking forward to the next episode.

Sure. Anyone can use this if they want.

Last time I also wrote this on the 52nd cosa election:


"We should also consider that sometimes the relevance of events will become clearer in a historical context. These election results are still very young. Will the upwards trajectory of the left continue? Is this only a temporary setback for the MRPT? Is it a new equilibrium where the three parties keep each other in balance? Or is a new party about to disturb the three party system? Whatever happens, it might cause us to re-evaluate what we think about the current political situation. Let's see what the future brings us."

A lot has happened since then. Looking back this election was the calm before the storm. Bizarrely the MRPT would never participate in an election again.

#53:

Elections to the 52nd Cosa - July 2018

Some shifts did happen during the most recent election. The RUMP dropped to the third place for the first time. Talossa also saw the disappearance after one term of the HAT party and the rebranding of the Republicans as the Trump-inspired Make Talossa Great Again. Meanwhile the gap between the MRPT and the resurgent FreeDems became much closer. After two elections where the MRPT was the largest by far we are now back in a situation where the three parties are nicely balanced. This is not entirely unprecedented. For the MRPT it is a movement in the direction but not quite all the way towards its strength before the 50th Cosa, for the Freedems it is their second best result and for the RUMP it is actually a slight increase compared to the previous election. Fears about very low turnout turned out to be unfounded. Neither did the results change the balance of power. For the third time in a row any combination of two of the three major parties could form a coalition. This means the sitting centre left MRPT-FreeDem coalition kept its majority and was able to continue, this time with a new seneschal, Ian Plätschisch. The size of the majority of the coalition did not significantly change, nor did the order of parties in it. A few more votes for the FreeDems and the story would have been very different though.


Turnout: 126 (+4)

Seats (EM200):

Moderate Radical Party (MRPT): 69 (-14)
Free Democrats of Talossan (FreeDems): 63 (+15)
Recruits for Upholding the Monarchy and its Principles (RUMP): 61 (+3)
Make Talossa Great Again (MTGA): 7 (new/+3*)

*depending on whether you see it as a continuation of the Republican party

#54:

Elections to the 27th Cosa - April 2000

Not a very different situation from the one described for the 28th Cosa, and no major change from the election before. King Ben made a big fuss about the RCT losing votes to the Liberals, who got their best result yet, but in the end the effects were really marginal, mostly because the PC kept its majority. Also, the RCT did not lose a single seat, due to an unlucky dieroll one election earlier. The gains for the TLP came mostly from parties that were not in power, but wasn't nearly enough to break the stalemate and permanently unite the opposition under one banner. Even if the PC had lost its majority, which it didn't, it seemed more likely that the RCT, or the ZPT, who according to Ár Päts were upset with the other two opposition parties for blocking the nomination of Ieremiac'h Ventrutx as opposition leader would have formed a coalition with them rather than a three way coalition without the PC. Only one seat changed party.

Turnout: 50 (+3)

Vote percentage (db) / Seats (20, AP/wiki):

Progressive Conservative Party (PC): 56.0% (+4.9) / 11 (nc)
Talossan Liberal Party (TLP): 20.0% (+5.1) / 4 (+1)
Defenders of the Land of Talossa (ZPT): 14.0% (-5.2) / 3 (-1)
Rally of the Citizens of Talossa (RCT): 10.0% (-4.9) / 2 (nc)

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on February 12, 2023, 07:36:12 AMIf you succeed in this amazing goal, I personally guarantee that we will find you some sort of prize or recognition worthy of the accomplishment. And I will pledge to help too! Excelsior!

Well I don't really need a prize, but if you want to help I could send you a pm with a couple elections that need a summary similar to the ones I posted within the next month or so. Just let me know...

#55:

Elections to the 28th Cosa - December 2000

Tensions were high in Talossa throughout the late nineties and early two-thousands. Talossa was increasing becoming populated with cybercits, who had little tolerance for Bens behaviour. Turnout peaked during the elections to the 28th Cosa. From here on Talossa would start a downward trajectory that lasted for at least 7 more cosa terms. Talossa was struggling with its attitude towards micronations, especially after the departure of citizens to form penguinea three years earlier. The King himself was going through some personal troubles as well, the fallout from which also spilled over into Talossa. Looking at the electoral results though, you'd think Talossa was as stable as ever. Mic'haglh Loquatsch was in the middle of his streak as longest consecutive Seneschal and electorally the Kingdom appeared to be in a stalemate, with the PC hanging on to a majority for many terms in a row and the opposition being split between three parties with different attitudes towards the King, the PC and the micronational community. These parties had kept each other in balance for three terms now and this election wasn't much different. One election before the King had, in very strong terms lamented the loss of seats from the RCT, which he did not appear to see as much of a threat to the more strident liberal TLP, which provided more serious opposition. The TLP was also blamed by the King and others for having been too sympathetic towards the penguineans and towards other nations described in Ár Päts as bug-nations. Even in that election hardly anything actually changed. Maybe Talossans who were around when this all happened can tell us more about the exact difference between the parties, because it's not very clear to me, especially the position of the ZPT. Anyway, during the demcember 2000 election for the third time in a row nothing really changed. The PC kept its majority. The RCT won a few seat back from the Liberals and a new minor protest party appeared, the late registration of which was somewhat controversial, but none of that really mattered. Only two seats changed party. All the internal turmoil did not (yet) have an effect on the election results.

Turnout: 51 (+1)

Vote percentage (db) / Seats (20, AP)
Progressive Conservative Party (PC): 52.9% (-3.3) / 11 (nc)
Rally of the Citizens of Talossa (RCT): 15.7% (+5.7) / 3 (+1)
Talossan Liberal Party (TLP): 15.7% (-4.3) / 3 (-1)
Defenders of the Land of Talossa (ZPT): 11.8% (-2.2) / 2 (-1)
(TLFN)*: 3.9% (new) / 1 (new)

* Couldn't find the name while writing this. I think I saw it somewhere before though.

#56:

Elections to the 51st Cosa - October 2017

Sometimes the surprise is how hardly anything happens. After a series of pretty volatile elections, participants in the GE predictions thread all predicted maybe not the end of the MRPT plurality, but at least some movement. Most of those predictions included big gains for the revitalised FreeDems. As for the MRPT it was favourite to win, but surely not by the same big margin as last time which only happened because all parties had faded into inactivity during the preceding term. When the winner of the prediction was revealed though he was quite surprised. He hadn't even been trying. Unlike the others he just copied last years results with the exception of removing two seats from a write-in party (IEVAAP) that didn't exist anymore. Well, sticking with last years results turned out to be the way to go, because the changes that did happen were barely noticeable. The FreeDems did manage to gain a little bit while the RUMP did lose somewhat, but the MRPT even managed to gain as well. The most interesting results were the loss for the Republicans, which was essentially reversion to the mean after a relatively strong performance and the formation of a new monarchist party, HAT, which beat the Republicans but not necessarily by one of the more impressive results for a new party in recent years (see LibCon, TSP, TNC). It always seemed likely that the centre-left coalition of MRPT and FreeDems would continue, as there had been relative peace and the coalition was happy with itself. The results only increased the likelyhood of that happening. Certainly it seemed obvious that Seneschal Lüc da Schir would be able to remain in office. A continuation of the MRPT-FreeDem coalition led by da Schir is exactly what happened. Nothing changed in the balance of power in the Kingdom, especially not in the Cosa.

Turnout: 122 (+5)

Seats (EM200):

MRPT 83 (+4)
FreeDem: 48 (+1)
RUMP: 58 (-4)
HAT: 7 (new)
REP: 4 (-5)

(db/wiki)

#57:

Elections to the 3rd Cosa - March 1986

I'm not sure if this is correct, but my interpretation of the early years of Talossan democracy is that people didn't take it as seriously as they do now. Wild ideas are floated and quickly put aside, people and parties made various major shifts seemingly without too much damage to personal relations. The more disappointing is it how boring the numbers for the March 1986 elections are in comparison. This was all preceded by Danihel Laurieir demanding that Ben become a dictator (which might have actually greatly limited his power over other Talossans) and apparently starting some kind of guerilla movement. None of that matters. His DDP got two votes before and gets two votes again electorally. Not much change either for the far-right TNP which apparently went from 3 to 2, but with reduced turnout. It is not clear if the party of the PM, Frédéric Coriü participated.* This doesn't matter as it was already only an essentially superfluous junior party in a large coalition of "centrist" parties, headed by the King's PC, which remained the largest party without gaining a majority. The first and least convincing of various Talossan liberal parties is apparently supported by the King as a sort of decoy party basically supporting the status quo. The Black Hand is part of the coalition as well. Regardless of what happens to FUN the other parties are all still the same, get roughly the same result (only TNP and PC lose some votes). According to Ár Päts the coalition even manages to continue without the Liberals but still lead by Coriü. None of the future changes in Talossa have anything to do with this election result. The PC may not be as dominant as it would become yet but Ben comfortably holds the reigns in Talossa.

Turnout: 11(db)* (-4)*

Votes / percentage:
Progressive Conservative Party (PC): 4 (-2) / 36.4%(db)* (-3.6)
Democratic Dandipractic Party (DDP): 2 / 18.2%(db)* (+4.9)
Liberal Party (PL): 2 / 18.2%(db)* (+4.9)
Talossan Nationalist Party (TNP): 2 (-1) / 18.2% (db)* (-1.8)
Black Hand Party (BH): 1 / 9.1% (db)* (+2.4)
Front Uni pour la Nation: -- (-1) / -- (db)* (-6.7)


* Ár Päts gives different percentages. For one it suggests the results lead to a PC/FUN/BH coalition getting 53.8 of seats. This could mean 13 rather than 11 voters with either BH or FUN getting two more votes than listed in the database (giving a total of 7 votes for the coalition, 7/13 = 53.8). It also mentions a percentage of only 25.1 of the votes for the PC and 14.1 for the DDP. Both those numbers are impossible for any realistic size of the electorate. My guess would be that two FUN votes (including Coriü's) somehow went missing in the database.

Honestly I'm already regretting this. I don't really have the time to write all new bits about every elections and the chance Ill finish it this time is very small. We'll see...

If anyone wants to help by diving into the history of a selected number of elections and writing a small summary let me know.

For starters I'm just gonna copy paste some stuff I wrote last time, beginning with number...

#58

Elections to the 20th Cosa - August 1995.

One election before Ben was apparently unjustifiably worried about the possibility of a leftist victory for the Vacillation Party. After that convincingly failed to happen, it even more convincingly failed to happen this time. Even after voting their own PM, John McGarry out of office, the PC, now lead by Geoffrey Toumayan, comfortably kept it's majority with no competent opposition to challenge them, because the VP didn't even manage to get on the ballot. According to Ár Päts the few votes cast for the VP were actually illegal for some vague reason relating to their voters not voting fast enough or something, but they were counted anyway with the help of an intervention by the CpI. Two prominent opposition politician didn't manage to vote. The PC was still in charge, business continued as usual. Looking back, it seems unlikely that anyone would care about this particular election. Whatever.

Turnout 17 (+2, db)*

Progressive Conservative Party (PC): 164 seats (+44, AP)**
Vacillation Party (VP) : 36 seats (-4, AP)**

* AP lists turnout as 11, but gives the same seats

** According to the db the previous result was PC 160 and VP nonexistent which would mean PC (+4) and VP (+36/new) instead

YoU wOn'T bElIeVe ThE nUmBeR 1!  ::)

Anyway, as mentioned before, I started doing this a couple years ago and then didn't get very far. Im gonna try again and see how far we get this year.

Over the next months I will be ranking all Talossan elections (not counting 1981 and 1983) from meaningless to era-defining political shifts. Just because I can (maybe).
It's gonna be entirely subjective.
It will not be entirely accurate. I don't know all that much about anything before I became a citizen. I will base myself mostly on Ár Päts and the database for that, but both are not always entirely accurate. The various pieces of data also sometimes contradict each other. The perspective put forth by Ár Päts is very one-dimensional and should probably not be trusted as a historical source and I only did a quick reading of everything. Feel free to correct me if I've got it wrong. Feel also free to argue about the ranking.
I'm not considering Senate results in this, mostly there is a lot of data missing about earlier senate elections and it's very difficult to interpret these results without fully understanding the ideological position of the candidates. I'm just looking at the Cosa elections.

It's not necessarily a ranking of how suprising the results were. Results can be surprisingly boring or be a completely expected landslide. There's also no fixed rule about causality. An big change election might itself change the course of Talossan history or simply reflect major changes that happened earlier.

Obviously I'm a bit biased towards elections I've experienced myself, but I'll try to at least somewhat spread out the results over the different eras. (Of course some periods are simply more interesting electorally than others.)

Anyway, predictions, alternative rankings etc are very welcome.

Oh, and here is a poll to get a sense of what might the consensus view of what may have been the biggest political revolutions: https://wittenberg.talossa.com/index.php?topic=2155.0