Quote from: Mic'haglh Autófil on March 26, 2022, 06:08:41 PM

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on March 26, 2022, 06:05:46 PM

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on March 26, 2022, 05:40:36 PM
I'm not a math guy, but I guess I don't understand why one number doesn't win. That's what I would have assumed - you buy one or more tickets for a dollar each, and if you buy the winning number, you get whatever the pot is for that drawing. Or split it if someone else picks the same number. Pretty low stakes, very simple. Although maybe a dollar wouldn't be enough of a pot if only a handful of people enter, so it might make sense to start off with pricier tickets.

But you guys are engineers and math people, so there are probably good reasons that I don't understand.

I endorse this design. The only mark against it is that it's a bit boring. In that case you could reduce the number of options from 59 while keeping multiple "balls"

Pretty much the other option, if 59 isn't as important. The key is to balance between winners coming up too frequently and winners coming up not frequently enough.

Right...maybe we figure out how frequently we want a winner first, then design the game accordingly

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on March 26, 2022, 05:40:36 PM
I'm not a math guy, but I guess I don't understand why one number doesn't win. That's what I would have assumed - you buy one or more tickets for a dollar each, and if you buy the winning number, you get whatever the pot is for that drawing. Or split it if someone else picks the same number. Pretty low stakes, very simple. Although maybe a dollar wouldn't be enough of a pot if only a handful of people enter, so it might make sense to start off with pricier tickets.

But you guys are engineers and math people, so there are probably good reasons that I don't understand.

I endorse this design. The only mark against it is that it's a bit boring. In that case you could reduce the number of options from 59 while keeping multiple "balls"

Quote from: Mic'haglh Autófil on March 25, 2022, 12:38:21 PM
Assuming my math is right, if we used three numbers, that time period drops to about 8.25 years. If we only used two, it would drop to about 18 weeks. No?

I got about seven years for three numbers, but about the same for two numbers.

Remember that both depend on 100 unique entries eligible on each draw.

Glad to have you!

It's great to see new citizens taking initiative!

With that made clear, I have some concern about how the mathematics of this lottery are going to shake out.

The number of unique combinations of four numbers between 1-59 (assuming the order doesn't matter, which my understanding of the rules) is the sum of:

Cases in which all four numbers are distinct (ex: 1 2 3 4): 59 choose 4 = 455,126
Cases in which one number appears twice (ex. 1 2 3 3): (59 choose 3) * 3 = 97,527
Cases in which one number appears thrice (ex. 1 2 2 2): (59 choose 2) * 2 = 3,422
Cases in which one number repeats four times (ex. 1 1 1 1): 59 (pretty obvious)
Cases in which two numbers appear twice (ex. 1 1 2 2): 59 choose 2 = 1,711

For a total of 557,845 possibilities. Since each line can only contain one of these possibilities, each line has only a 1/557,845 = .000001793 chance of winning on a particular draw.

The pricing of the tickets clearly encourages people to buy five lines on each ticket, so assuming each ticket has five unique lines, the chance of a ticket winning on a particular draw is 5/557,845 = .000008963

Similarly, suppose twenty tickets (with five unique lines each) are sold, which is pretty optimistic. The chance that anyone wins on a particular drawing is 100/557,845 = .0001793

Suppose that all of the tickets remain in effect until one of them wins. The number of drawings required before any of the tickets wins is a geometric random variable with distribution:

Pr(D = d) = .0001793 * (1 - .0001793)^(d - 1)

For example, the probability that the first win occurs on the 10th drawing is:

Pr(D = 10) = .0001793 * (1 - .0001793)^9 = .0001790

The mean of this distribution is 1/.0001793 = 5,577

If a drawing were held every week, we would not expect anyone to win for over 100 years!

If anything, the Treasury would surely benefit from being able to loan out the proceeds at interest while it waited for anyone to win.

I am happy to join this project as Chief Actuary to help come up with a more workable design.

Reposting this here

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on March 19, 2022, 09:09:25 AM

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on March 18, 2022, 09:30:41 AM
Which restrictions prevented the Government from creating any kind of memorial, including the promised stamp, for Art Verbotten?

The Patriot Points program did not raise enough money for us to think that producing the stamp was prudent at this time.

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on September 29, 2021, 09:09:42 PM

Quote from: Glüc da Dhi S.H. on September 29, 2021, 02:27:17 PM
So if I understand S;reu Perþonest correctly, about 50 usd was raised in stamp sales/donations last year.

On what basis does the government think it is realistic that 200 dollars will be raised this term (noting that a cosa term is less than a year)?

Also, what is the government's plan regarding the stamps now that it turns out 50 dollars for stamps may not be feasible?

Depending on the amount of donations received, we may deem it worthwhile to request the extra money for the full run of stamps, or we may decide now is not the right time to purchase that many stamps.

Per C.1.1, which allows any citizen to open the Assembly Call if the M3 does not, I hereby open the Assembly Call.

I claim my seat.

Bump

Quote from: Dr. Txec Róibeard dal Nordselvă, Esq., O.SPM, SMM on March 22, 2022, 03:36:35 PM

Quote from: Þon Txoteu É. Davinescu, O.SPM on March 22, 2022, 03:22:34 PM
Greetings Scholars,
As this vote has long since passed the membership, unless there are any objections, from this day forward... the following Post-Nominals are available for use by members of the Royal Society:

Associate - RS
Fellow - FRS
Senior Fellow - SFRS

Respectfully,
Gen. Txoteu É. Davinescu, O.SPM, SFRS, MA
Seneschal of Talossa

What entitles someone to use the various levels of post nominal?

I believe the levels are:
Associate Fellow - anyone
Fellow - at least high school diploma
Senior Fellow - at least 2-year college degree

Come to think of it, I'm eligible to advance my membership to Senior Fellow

Found a picture of my dad's arms:

https://talossa.proboards.com/attachment/download/1004

Quote from: Baron Alexandreu Davinescu on March 18, 2022, 09:30:41 AM
Which restrictions prevented the Government from creating any kind of memorial, including the promised stamp, for Art Verbotten?

The Patriot Points program did not raise enough money for us to think that producing the stamp was prudent at this time.

Quote from: Ian Plätschisch on September 29, 2021, 09:09:42 PM

Quote from: Glüc da Dhi S.H. on September 29, 2021, 02:27:17 PM
So if I understand S;reu Perþonest correctly, about 50 usd was raised in stamp sales/donations last year.

On what basis does the government think it is realistic that 200 dollars will be raised this term (noting that a cosa term is less than a year)?

Also, what is the government's plan regarding the stamps now that it turns out 50 dollars for stamps may not be feasible?

Depending on the amount of donations received, we may deem it worthwhile to request the extra money for the full run of stamps, or we may decide now is not the right time to purchase that many stamps.

We have tried several times to rewrite the OrgLaw from scratch and it has never worked
-It takes more than one person to get anything with broad support, and organizing that many people for that long is impractical, based on experience
-Even if an entirely new document we're produced, it would be bound to have a lot of its own problems. At least with our current OrgLaw we already know what most of the issues are.

We did successfully restructure the Organic Law in 2019 to make it clearer. Obviously it wasn't perfect, but it had the benefit of not starting from nothing.

Quote from: Açafat del Val on March 18, 2022, 11:14:05 AM
Might it be nicer to offer coins or stamps in place of IDs? Unless we plan to use the IDs for practicable ends.

I struggle to see why we should add more bureaucracy and vanity (and ministerial burdens on some poor bloke), when we have passports and coats of arms and coins and stamps and so much else already.

Because it's fun and people want them.

"In taste there is no disputing"

Quote from: Breneir Tzaracomprada on March 18, 2022, 01:51:07 PM

Quote from: Dr. Txec Róibeard dal Nordselvă, Esq., O.SPM, SMM on March 18, 2022, 01:50:26 PM

Quote from: Breneir Tzaracomprada on March 18, 2022, 01:48:56 PM
@Ian Plätschisch I keep looking at the picture of the Pork Sausage and Marmalade sandwich...
The fact that you put the marmalade on the end side of the bread really bothers me...

If we're being honest here, the whole idea of combining marmalade and sausage seems off to me!

Yes lol! The whole thing causes me to twitch

It was actually really good!

COSA: Free Democrats of Talossa

RZ9 - PER
RZ10 - PER
RZ11 - CON

Maritiimi-Maxhestic Senate: Ian Plätschisch