Terpelaziun for the Minister of Public Records

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

My question is for the Minister of Public Records. Opposition politicians have been saying that this Government's performance on immigration has been notoriously bad, issuing calls for urgent action with a clear list of specifics.   Can the Minister provide any public records to compare immigration levels in this Cosa with previous terms?

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

Estimat Túischac'h,

While I thank the Member opposite for his question, I note that, apart from some dubious claims inserted into the preferatory text, his question appears to be identical either to one previously posed by a Senator, or to a supplementary question posed by the Member himself in that Senator's Terpelaziun thread. In either event, while duplicating Terpelaziuns could reasonably be considered a breach of decorum, in order to practice what I preach and promote a more professional environment, I would ask some leniency from the Chair for the Member, who I would encourage to simply keep the conversation in one thread. :)

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

S:reu:

In the other thread, I asked for context for immigration application numbers by considering the total successful immigrations as a percentage of the whole.  Here, I was requesting those naturalization numbers only, with the intent of following up with further questions.  So, begging the minister's patience, I'd repeat my request: how do current immigration levels compare with previous terms?

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

Estimat Túischac'h, I thank the Member for his clarification. In that case, quoting from my answer elsewhere:

Going again off the numbers found on Infotecă:

• 57th Cosă: 8/66 = 12%
• 58th Cosă: 8/86 = 9%
• 59th Cosă: 11/62 = 18%
• 60th Cosă: 6/69 = 9% (While the application numbers from the 60th Cosă as recorded in Infotecă appear to be accurate, the naturalization numbers appear to have a clerical error or two, so I arrived at a count of six simply by counting on the Database. I do intend to review the Infotecă numbers more thoroughly in the near future.)
• 61st Cosă through August: 1/43 = 2.3%

Therefore, the numbers he has requested are as follows, with additional Cosă terms thrown in for richer context:
61st Cosă through August: 1
60th Cosă: 6
59th Cosă: 11
58th Cosă: 8
57th Cosă: 8
56th Cosă: 2
55th Cosă: 4
54th Cosă: 4
53rd Cosă: 3
52nd Cosă: 9
51st Cosă: 6
50th Cosă: 18

Since I know the Member is as concerned with immigration numbers as I am, and that he would like to identify the source of the downturn, please allow me to offer a few impressions based on these numbers:

• The 50th - 52nd Cosas saw numbers on par with -- or in the case of the 50th, vastly exceeding -- the overall trend in the last few terms.
• The 54th - 56th Cosas appear at first glance to have been affected by the pandemic, which hit its major initial spread about halfway through the 54th term (March 2020).
• On the other hand, the pandemic would have been the perfect time for people to look for a little "escapism" from the broader goings-on, and could have found in Talossa. The pandemic also would not explain the drop from the 52nd to 53rd Cosas, as it had not yet become an issue.
• Partisan control also does little to explain the drops, since the Free Democrats were a member of the governing coalition from the 50th to 57th Cosas, which saw a downturn for a few terms before rebounding in the 57th (i.e. prior to the TNC taking control of the government).
• I did a little digging into Wittenberg's stats and I note that 2021 in particular was a down year for activity, which likely affected the 55th and 56th Cosas' numbers.
• To sum up, this data appears to imply the following:
  
  • Immigration numbers -- that is, successful immigration numbers -- may follow a natural longer-term cycle, several Cosas of higher numbers followed by several terms of lower numbers.
  • The atmosphere here on Wittenberg almost certainly plays a large part as well, with 2021's low activity and the present hostile environment as examples.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

S:reu:

I thank the minister for his response.  I am also grateful for the detailed analysis, even though I disagree with some of the conclusions.  Here are your numbers:

61st Cosă: 1
60th Cosă: 6
59th Cosă: 11
58th Cosă: 8
57th Cosă: 8
56th Cosă: 2
55th Cosă: 4
54th Cosă: 4
53rd Cosă: 3
52nd Cosă: 9
51st Cosă: 6
50th Cosă: 18

Looking at the numbers, I think it might be a good idea to set aside an attempt at a just-so story to explain everything.  This is a complicated question, capturing a lot about the state of our country and its governance.  Let's at least start out by focusing on the bottom line.

So, as a supplementary question, would you tell me if you agree that this is a fair way to describe the trendline:

The immigration rate badly slumped during the 53rd Cosa.  This slump continued for several terms, reaching a nadir during the 56th Cosa.  After that, the immigration rate improved over the succeeding three Cosas.  It peaked again during the 59th Cosa, but it has since badly slumped again.

Is that accurate?  I know it doesn't capture all of the subtleties, and that we can tell all kinds of stories to explain it, but I want to be sure that we agree on just the actual trend in this data.