58th Election Predictions & Commentary

[King Txec]

@Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB I'm going to be out tonight, PM me the results early.

Funny :-)

Keep in mind it may take a few minutes past the deadline for me to confirm I've not received any last minute votes, but rest assured the results will be available as quickly as possible.

[King Txec]

We just made it to 100 votes! Almost 73% turnout.

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

Alright, time to release my exit poll. Note that it is liable to change if additional people vote.

TNC - 94
FreeDem - 73
DIEN - 15
PdR - 11
PT - 7

The TNC has been putting a lot of effort into recruiting new citizens, a strategy that appears to be working well for them. Combining that with the old RUMP faithful leads to a large block of votes, but probably not quite enough for a majority on their own.

The Free Democrats have done a respectable job of turning out their base. Also, they face a reduced threat from their left; the Peculiarist contingent is not running on the national level and endorsed the FreeDems instead, and the PdR have not been vigorously campaigning. I therefore predict a modest increase in their raw vote total, although a slight decrease in their number of seats, since we have 10 more voters in this election compared to last.

Despite (or perhaps because of) the TNC's vigorous campaigning, I think Dien is still appealing to some voters (I am more confident about this after seeing Sir Cresti's public vote for him). I think he has a similar performance to last time.

The PdR has not been campaigning much, but there is always a desire among some part of the electorate for parties like them. I am predicting a pretty big decrease (they got 25 seats in the last election), but if they significantly exceed my expectations, it will likely be at the expense of the FreeDems.

A meme party, in my recollection, has never done better than a few votes, so seven seats would be a solid performance for the PT.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN-GC]

Vive l'altérnance

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

TNC - 94
FreeDem - 73
DIEN - 15
PdR - 11
PT - 7

This is the worst exit poll since the New York Times gave Hillary Clinton a 99% chance of winning.

[Breneir Tzaracomprada]

Wow is the word right now. This is incredible.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN-GC]

TNC absolute majority in the Cosa; FreeDems (retained) absolute majority in the Senäts. Hopefully this result will end up in both an active Government and a legislative programme which receives broad consensus support.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN-GC]

I just noticed: adding the Republican PdR to the "King Must Go" FreeDems, parties running on an explicit platform that King John I should retire got more than 35% of the vote. That's... not nothing.

[Viteu]

My curiosity got the best of me, so here are some statistics from the last election that I compiled:

Eligible Voters: 138
Total Votes: 100
Voter Turnout: 72.46%
Citizenship Lost: 17 (18*)
Citizenship Attrition: 12.31% (13.04%*)


Turnout by Province (highest-to-lowest)

Province – Votes/Eligible Voters – Turnout Rate
1. Vuode -- 9/10 -- 90%
2. Florencià -- 11/13 -- 84.61%
3. Fiova -- 18/22 -- 81.81%
4. Maricopa -- 14/18 -- 77.77%
5. Maritiimi-Maxhestic -- 12/17 -- 70.58%
6. Atatûrk - 13/19 -- 68.42%
7. Benito - 13/20 -- 65%
8. Cézembre -- 10/19 -- 52.63%



Citizen Attrition by Province (highest-to-lowest)

Province – Decline/Eligible Voters – Attrition Rate
1. Atatûrk - 5/19 -- 26.31%
2/3. Benito - 4/20 – 20%
3/2. Maritiimi-Maxhestic – 3/17 (4/17*) – 17.64% (23.52%*)
4. Cézembre -- 3/19 – 15.78%
5. Vuode -- 1/10 – 10%
6. Florencià -- 1/13 – 7.69%
7/8. Fiova -- 0/22 -- nil
8/7. Maricopa -- 0/18 – nil


*I noticed that there may be another individual who, unfortunately, may have lost their relationship. I've messaged the SOS to confirm.