Talossan Cycling Association Tour

[Glüc]

Just got home. Looks like it was a great day for Kinetic Racing

Edit: and more confirmation that BdC is useless in the mountains

[Glüc]

An impressive victory for Pidcock on the Alpe d'Huez results in Kinetic Racing scoring the most points today and overtaking BdC for the second place overall.

Standings after stage 12:

1. Naziun Cjovani - 4910 (+603)
2. Kinetic Racing - 4745 (+749)
3. Banqeu da Cézembre KLüP TMT - 4394 (+210)
4. Gordon Hiatus Support Team - 3600 (+443)

Tomorrow (Le Bourg d'Oisans -> St Étienne) looks like it could be a day for the sprinters. BdC will be relieved to leave the alps behind after a disastrous performance there.

[Audrada Roibeardet]

Honestly, I'm shocked by how well Kinetic did today. Hopefully we can get some serious points tomorrow as well.

[Glüc]

Honestly, I'm shocked by how well Kinetic did today. Hopefully we can get some serious points tomorrow as well.

Looks like you did...

[Glüc]

Having to do a double update today. Will also do an update on the virtual standings later.

We have a new leader! Somewhat to my surprise, the sprinters let the attack get away yesterday. This included KIN/GHS rider Ganna. Combined with Van Aert leading the Peloton in the sprint this resulted in another good day for Kinetic Racing. Good enough to overtake Naziun Cjovani in the standings.

Standings after stage 13:

1. Kinetic Racing - 5095 (+350)
2. Naziun Cjovani - 5086 (+176)
3. Banqeu da Cézembre KLüP TMT - 4620 (+226)
4. Gordon Hiatus Support Team - 3865 (+265)

Today was a hilly stage in the Massif Central (Saint-Étienne -> Mende), which always seemed like a great opportunity for attackers, and indeed we got a large breakaway, consisting of three BdC riders (Pinot, Uran, Mollema), one GHS rider (Bettiol) and one KIN rider (Fuglsang). In the end Bettiol was the first to the finish of the five, but it was BdC scoring the most points with Kinetic racing expanding their lead over Naziun Cjovani.

Standings after stage 14:

1. Kinetic Racing - 5326 (+231)
2. Naziun Cjovani - 5189 (+103)
3. Banqeu da Cézembre KLüP TMT - 4980 (+360)
4. Gordon Hiatus Support Team - 4146 (+281)

Yesterday BdC may have let the attack get away, but tomorrow surely is an opportunity they don't want to miss, as it's the last flat stage before the Pyrenees and opportunities for sprinters overall are rare this tour. In his current form this may be another opportunity for van Aert and an opportunity for BdC and Kinetic to score some more points before we get to the mountains again.

[Glüc]

Ok, did another virtual standing calculation again

Expected end of tour classification points based on the standings after stage 14:
CJO - 1685 (-35)
KIN - 1175 (+60)
GHS - 1105 (+35)
BDC - 965 (-220)

Expected daily classification points (stage 15-21) based on the standings after stage 14:
KIN - 707
CJO - 686
GHS - 567
BDC - 518

Virtual standing after stage 14:
1. Naziun Cjovani - 7560
2. Kinetic Racing - 7208
3. Banqeu da Cézembre KLüP TMT - 6463
4. Gordon Hiatus Support Team - 5818


So BdC didnt just score few stage points in the alps, we also got a big hit in the classification standings, and it might get even worse in the Pyrenees.

Meanwhile, despite being overtaken by Kinetic Racing the current standings, Naziun Cjovani is still on course to win the TCAT, because of the many end of tour points they will receive.
However, the last three stages should be very good for Van Aert in his current form, which may score Kinetic Racing a lot of points, which could compensate for the classification points Naziun Cjovani will get, so it will be important for Naziun Cjovani to score big in the Pyrenees (which I expect will happen, with Pogacar and Vingegaard both in the team).

[Glüc]

It's a long ride to Cézembre Paris, and not everyone survives the journey. GHST and Naziun Cjovani suffered setbacks as Roglic's shoulder problems that started after his crash in the cobblestage caused him to withdraw and Cort Nielsen, one of the most memorable riders this TCAT, tested positive for Covid. I failed to mention Barguil (Kinetic Racing) faced the same misfortune a few stages earlier and also withdrew. Meanwhile Vingegaard himself was one of several riders to crash yesterday, but was thankfully able to continue, unlike one of his most important teammates, meaning he will be more isolated as we go into the Pyrenees. For now he is still comfortably in the Maillot Jaune though.

Stage 15 ended more or less as expected as BdC (pretty much the sprintteam of TCAT) ensured their riders were present at the finish for a mass sprint, and indeed BdC riders Van Aert and Sagan were the first and second TCAT riders across the finish, allowing BdC to (for now) overtake Naziun Cjovani in the standings again, while Kinetic Racing extended their lead.

Standings after stage 15:

1. Kinetic Racing - 5619 (+293)
2. Banqeu da Cézembre KLüP TMT - 5448 (+468)
3. Naziun Cjovani - 5338 (+149)
4. Gordon Hiatus Support Team - 4250 (+104)

Sadly for BdC, there wont be much sprinting in the coming days as we enter the mountains again. Tomorrow (Carcassonne -> Foix) is another transitional stage, though with a particularly nasty climb on the way, the Mur de Péguère.



The day after that  (Saint Gaudens -> Peyragudes) we will have a proper mountain stage again. No Tourmalet this year apparently, but still some pretty challenging climbs, with a finish on the Peyragudes where the fight for the yellow jersey may again get a big shakeup. (Mentioning this stage already because Im not expecting to be able to do an update tomorrow)

[Glüc]

Btw, I had to cycle 30 mins from work when it was 33 *C today and I felt like I was dying. Temperatures in France were even higher last week. How they all managed to race for 100s of kilometers under these conditions is completely beyond me.

[Audrada Roibeardet]

It's because they are professional athletes and we're mere mortals.  ;D

[Glüc]

Naziun Cjovani made a big jump in the standings today as they took a major step towards winning the Talossan Cycling Association Tour.

Yesterday didn't have a particularly interesting result. BdC had a good day due to Van Hooydonck, Gallopin and Van Aert being in the attack and Van Aert leading the group of favourites at the finish. Kinetic Racing had a decent day as well, but this was offset by already the third withdrawal on the team as Jakob Fuglsang didn't start the stage.

Standings after stage 16:

1. Kinetic Racing - 5835 (+216)
2. Naziun Cjovani - 5499 (+161)
3. Banqeu da Cézembre KLüP TMT - 5706 (+231)
4. Gordon Hiatus Support Team - 4333 (+83)

Today was big however. Pogacar was the first to reach the finish line at the ski resort of Peyragudes after a day of climbing, but wasn't able to shake off Vingegaard who didn't lose much time. Both riders scored many points for Naziun Cjovani, who are now back in second place. It's very close at the top of the standings with less than 100 points separating the three teams, but the position of Vingegaard and Pogacar in the general classification means that Naziun Cjovani definitely seems to have an edge.

Standings after stage 17:

1. Kinetic Racing - 6160 (+325)
2. Naziun Cjovani - 6127 (+628)
3. Banqeu da Cézembre KLüP TMT - 6096 (+390)
4. Gordon Hiatus Support Team - 4571 (+238)


The two star riders of the Naziun Cjovani team battling it out in the Pyrenees. From letour.fr

Tomorrow we get another big mountain stage with several climbs, including the legendary Col d'Aubisque and a finish at the Hautacam. This day may turn out to be decisive, both for the individual battle between Pogacar and Vingegaard as for the battle between the TCAT teams. Should Naziun Cjovani manage get a repeat of today's result, that might well be enough to clinch the victory, as even good results by Ganna, Van Aert and Sagan in the final three stages may not be enough to offset the lead Naziun Cjovani would have in the virtual standing. If tomorrow is not as decisive as today however, there may still be some hope for Kinetic or BdC.

[Glüc]

Vingegaard wins the tour!

(But TCAT is not decided yet as BdC has a very strong day and may be in a good position to win after all)

Full update later.

Edit: looking at the numbers Naziun Cjovani still the clear favourite...

[Glüc]

Right, so the individual classifications are decided. Many riders attacked today, but in the end it was Vingegaard and Pogacar who were left, not for the first time. Pogacar tried to attack several times, but it was Vingegaard who finally got away, winning not just the stage but also the King of the Mountains classification and gaining enough time on Pogacar that there is simply no chance Pogacar will bridge the gap in the time trial. So Naziun Cjovani (Vingegaard) takes both the yellow and the polkadot jersey, while Kinetic Racing and BdC (van Aert) share the green. Despite this it might actually have been BdC who had the best day as Pinot, Mollema and Uran also scored points on the way, allowing BdC to take the lead again.

Standings after stage 18:

1. Banqeu da Cézembre KLüP TMT - 6781 (+712)
2. Naziun Cjovani - 6736 (+609)
3. Kinetic Racing - 6706 (+546)
4. Gordon Hiatus Support Team - 4712 (+141)

So its very close at the moment. However, many points are still to be awarded based on the final classifications, which is very good news for Naziun Cjovani, being the team with the actual winner of the tour. Now that we have a good idea of how these classifications will look like, lets have a look at the virtual standings again, before we get to the next stage.

[Glüc]

Expected end of tour classification points based on the standings after stage 18:
CJO - 1790 (+105)
KIN - 1130 (-45)
BDC - 1045 (+80)
GHS - 760 (-345)

Expected daily classification points (stage 19-21) based on the standings after stage 18:
CJO - 327
KIN - 279
BDC - 219
GHS - 180

Virtual standing after stage 18:
1. Naziun Cjovani - 8853
2. Kinetic Racing - 8115
3. Banqeu da Cézembre KLüP TMT - 8045
4. Gordon Hiatus Support Team - 5652

So where the Alps turned out pretty badly for BdC, we survived the Pyrenees pretty well, unlike GHST.

Either way, the points Naziun Cjovani will be getting from Vingegaard (and Pogacar) mean they are still in a very good position. It will be very difficult for BdC or Kinetic to bridge the gap. Difficult, but maybe not impossible, as there are still two sprint stages and a time trial coming up, in which van Aert may again score well. BdC might also hope for a good result by Sagan, whereas Kinetic Racing might be hoping for Ganna to win the time trial this time. That said, for either team to beat Naziun Cjovani, they need to score big three stages in a row.

Tomorrow is the first chance to do so, in a very flat stage (Castelnau -> Magnoac), that will almost certainly end in a mass sprint. Chances for Van Aert and Sagan hopefully.

[Glüc]

Not having vd Poel in the time trial is a big miss for Kinetic and BdC.

Kinetic Racing has been particularly unlucky wrt withdrawals this edition. Barguil, van der Poel, Fuglsang, and now Froome...

[Glüc]

Is it time to congratulate Iason yet?

Guess we should wait until the result is definitive, but after today's stage, I don't see a path for either BdC or Kinetic. The race for second place isn't over yet, but something pretty disastrous needs to happen for Naziun Cjovani not to win the first Talossan Cycling Association Tour

Full update tomorrow after the time trial probably.