2023 Talossan Cycling Association Tour - Leg 1: Ortona -> Roma

[Glüc]

Did Groves quit?

Yes :(

[Audrada Roibeardet]

Looks like Harm is out as well. Both riders seem to have gastric issues and fatigue. Possibly influenza?

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

I have to express my ignorance. Is this normal for a bunch of riders to drop out in the first few weeks?

[Audrada Roibeardet]

I can't remember when there were this many scratches. This Giro really has been strange.

[Glüc]

I have to express my ignorance. Is this normal for a bunch of riders to drop out in the first few weeks?

Yes and no. There will always be dropouts in a grand tour, for various reasons. When you do a three week, 3000+ km cycling race, there are gonna be incidents.

However, I agree with Audrada that there have been unusually many this year. Especially since we're only in the second week (obviously a crash can happen at any time, but usually the third week is when the exhaustion and the little pains and aches really start to add up and take its toll. Also, some people who know they aren't gonna be winning anything, maybe because their form isn't what they hoped it would be, might just give up at some point). I also think we're unfortunate in that a lot of the dropouts have been high scoring tcat riders.

Clearly the weather hasn't helped, but I'm not sure thats the only explanation.

[Glüc]

Ok, I looked up some statistics

In the past 10 Giro editions, on average 19% of riders dropped out
In the past 10 Tour de France editions, on average 17% of riders dropped out
In the past 10 Vuelta editions, on average 20% of riders dropped out

The worst GT in the past 10 year was the Vuelta in 2013, where 54 out of 198 riders (27%) dropped out.

The best was the Vuelta in 2018, when 18 out of 176 (10%) dropped out.

However, this is over three weeks, and as mentioned, most dropouts are in the final week and at least some part of that will be demoralised riders who are not in form who give up after a while, or riders who simply can't keep up and come in after the time limit for a stage, which is also unfortunate, but doesnt have as big an impact as someone who is still in for the win getting sick or crashing out.

Currently we are at 40 dropouts out of 176  (23%) and we're only in week 2!

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 12 Bra -> Rivoli

A stage that could somewhat have gone one of several ways going in: some hills to begin, a mostly flat middle section, and a category 2 summit 20km before the finish. Plenty of space for a breakaway, but still a chance that the peloton might keep close enough to absorb it after the last mountain and lead to another mass sprint.

As it turned out, no, no chance for any of our very tired sprinters to keep up, and indeed poor Kaden Groves (MCB/BDC) is our latest retirement. Luckily the toll from this stage is just four DNS/DNFs, which compared to a combined 23 retirements from the last two stages is a relief.

No, this was a day for a breakaway. And what a breakaway it was: a massive 26 riders escaped early on and took control of the stage, later fracturing further into a leading trio including TCAT rider Berwick (VFL), a gaggle of riders in pursuit including Bettiol (CHX), Hessmann (KIN) and Kuss (CHX/GHS/CFA), and various other riders inbetween. The stage win ultimately went to Bora's Nico Denz; Berwick finished P3, Bettiol P7, Hessmann P9 and Kuss P15. No other TCAT rider got stage points, as the peloton arrived P26 onwards, but Mads Pedersen (ATX/CHX/PTM/CFA/BDC/KIN) did win the intermediate sprint early on, giving him 12 much needed points towards his pursuit of Jonathan Milan (CHX) in the points' classification (the maglia ciclamino).

As for ourselves, we have a rare shared victory between Velociposse and Cyclohexane, but overall it was a very low scoring affair, with a majority of team not getting into the triple digits.

Standings after Stage 12:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu de Cézembre Pterodactyls (BDC)	4579	+120
2nd	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	4364	+274
3rd	(=)	Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3607	+82
4th	(=)	Maritiimi-Maxhestic Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	3536	+86
5th	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3365	+95
6th	(+2)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	3291	+274
7th	(-1)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3150	+51
8th	(-1)	Dead Last (DED)	3148	+64
9th	(+1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	3077	+213
10th	(-1)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	2963	+97
11th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschă (CFA)	2785	+176

[Sir Lüc]

Tomorrow, finally, we get to the Alps! Three first category climbs, so Velogames points on offer for each, and big chances of shakeups in the King of Mountains classification. Tell your climbers to get ready!

No St. Bernard pass, due to the risk of snow and avalanches, so the highest summit will instead be the finish of stage 19 next Friday. We still get a long but reduced climb there, but passing through the tunnel instead of the actual summit of the pass; the Croix de Coeur later; and the uphill finish at Crans-Montana.

Definitely a stage to get excited for; the action is getting real. Sadly, without Evenepoel, Gegoghegan Hart, Vlasov and many other retirements.

[Sir Lüc]

Lastly, very overdue look at our unofficial sprinters' and climbers' classifications. Usual reminders:

• Sprinters' classification is daily points classification points ("PC" on Velogames) + intermediate sprint points ("Spr").
• Climbers' classification is daily KOM classification points ("KOM") + summit points ("Sum").

Sprinters after stage 12:

• Cyclohexane still in control thanks to Jonathan Milan; BDC's assault to the leadership is definitely called off now that Groves is out.
• Further behind, Averatxeirs reaps Ackermann's rewards, and Fieschă is surprisingly strong thanks to a TCAT-best 50 points from intermediate sprints.
• MCB could also have hoped in Groves to help clinch a strong finish in this classification at least, but his retirement will sadly preclude that.

1. Cyclohexane (247)
2. Banqeu de Céz (205)
3. Averatxeirs (118)
4. Fieschă (109)
5. MCB (107)
6. Port Maxh (106)
7. Kinetic (81)
8. Dead Last (66)
9. Gagnheirs (53)
10. Velociposse (49)
11. GHST (38)

Climbers:

• Again, not much has happened yet. All but 24 of these points are from the daily KOM standings, so the Pinot teams obviously reap the rewards of his early days in the maglia azzurra.
• BDC also has both Almeida and Paret-Peintre, and Cyclohexane has Almeida.
• This will obviously change greatly (assuming TCAT riders do get those Velogames summit points!) from tomorrow onwards, as Giro tackles the Alps and the many first category summits to come.

1. Banqeu de Céz (139)
2. Cyclohexane (111)
3. Fieschă (98)
4. Velociposse (25)
5. Gagnheirs (23)
6. GHST (20)
7. MCB (16)
8. Dead Last (15)
9. Kinetic (12)
10. Port Maxh (11)
11. Averatxeirs (0)

[Glüc]

noooooooooooo
Ritirato Pedersen (ATX/CHX/PTM/CFA/BDC/KIN)

:(

[Audrada Roibeardet]

Fuck! Now Mads is out?!

This Giro is turning into an elimination race. Last man standing wins.

[Glüc]

Stage 13 Borgofranco d'Ivrea -> Crans Montana

Well six teams got some pretty bad news again as Pedersen woke up sick and withdrew.

After that the stage was actually quite interesting. The bad weather conditions caused the organisers to shrink the stage down to 75 kilometers, transporting all riders by bus into Switzerland and starting at the bottom of what was supposed to be the second climb. As a result of that the racing was on as soon as the stage started and the peloton was torn apart in the first few kilometers. One group managed to get away, including Thibault Pinot (CHX/BDC/DED), who was arrived first on the Croix de Coeur to score a lot of KOM points.

After that there was a pretty dangerous descent over wet, small, bendy roads in poor condition, surrounded by snow. Thankfully riders were sensible enough to ride carefully and no further accidents happened.


_{Pinot leading the descent from Croix de Coeur (credit:Eurosport/GCN)}

The group managed to stay away for the remainder of the race, with Pinot being the first TCAT rider across the line and regaining the Maglia Azzurra (KoM classification jersey). In the favourites group, Carthy (PTM/DED) attacked on the final climb and managed to gain a couple seconds. Caruso (DED) also tried, but failed to get away. Thomas (GNH/KIN) and his teammates managed stay in complete control, losing no time to any serious contenders and limiting the time lost to the attackers. He will keep the Maglia Rosa. Almeida (CHX/GNH/VFL/PTM/BDC/DED) won the sprint in the favourites group but also didn't gain any time.

A good day for the Pinot gang, with BdC scoring the most points, followed by Cyclohexane and Cézembre Fieschă, although all three teams will also be hurting from the loss of Pedersen. At the same time, Velociposse and Els Gagnheirs, who should have better teams left for the mountain stages may be slightly disappointed as they didn't get closer to first place in the standings. Two good days for Els Averatxeirs were followed by a pretty bad day as they scored barely any points and drop back to fourth place. GHST, as expected due to being hit the hardest by the withdrawals so far, are now dead last.

Standings after Stage 13:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu de Cézembre Pterodactyls (BDC)	5036	+457
2nd	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	4800	+436
3rd	(+1)	Maritiimi-Maxhestic Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	3809	+273
4th	(-1)	Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3643	+36
5th	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3622	+257
6th	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	3585	+294
7th	(+1)	Dead Last (DED)	3456	+308
8th	(+1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	3235	+158
9th	(-2)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3228	+78
10th	(+1)	Cézembre Fieschă (CFA)	3198	+413
11th	(-1)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3103	+140

Tomorrow we have another intermediate stage, which will probably end in a bunch sprint (which would be bad news for BDC, MCB, PTM, and CFA who now suddenly have no sprinters left). However, the peloton will have to get out of Switzerland first, which involves going over a first category climb and may help give an early attack a sizeable headstart.

[Glüc]

The fight for the general classification (Maglia Rosa) is still wide open. Not much changed since last update. Thomas (GNH/KIN) continues to hold the lead, but Roglic (VFL/CFA) is close behind, and several others are still in with a chance.

A lot did change in the points classification (Maglia Ciclamino), as both the second (Pedersen, ATX/CHX/PTM/CFA/BDC), and third (Groves, MCB/BDC) placed rider dropped out, which means Milan (CHX) is now pretty much ensured to win, if he finishes the race.

In the king of the mountains classification (Maglia Azzurra) Pinot (CHX/CFA/BDC) took back the lead and is now looking like the main contender. There are still many points remaining in the final stages however, so pretty much every good climber still has a chance to win.

Expected extra final classification points at current standings:

Gagnheirs - 1460
Velociposse - 1440
BdC - 1115
Fiescha - 1050
Dead Last - 1020
Cyclohexane - 980
Kinetic - 945
Port Maxhestic - 805
Copacabana Boys - 495
GHST - 420
Averatxeirs - 375

BdC are still ahead if you add these to the current standings, although obviously the loss of both Pedersen and Groves since last update has been quite a blow. As a result, looking at the stages to come, I think Cyclohexane may now be the favourites due to the expected results of Milan. Els Gagnheirs and Velociposse are also still in a very good position, but will need to get a big result in one of the mountain stages. That didn't happen today, but could still happen in stages 15,16,18,19 or 20.

Behind those four teams, Dead Last, Cézembre Fiescha, Kinetic and maybe Port Maxhestic can all still hope for a top 5 spot, or even higher in case there are more surprises or one of these team gets a really good result in a stage. Of course, Fiescha is only 10th still, so this is still very speculative and there is no guarantee these points will actually come.

Els Averatxeirs are currently in fourth, but will likely drop more places in the mountain stages as they are badly affected by some of the dropouts.

The same goes for the Cabana Boys and GHST, who are probably the most likely contenders for last place.

Of course, there are still eight stages to come and there is a lot that can happen. Best to take this analysis with a grain of salt

[Audrada Roibeardet]

I'd be happy with a top 5 finish.

[Sir Lüc]

At this point I wouldn't mind finishing last if Cyclohexane wins, so at least we keep the pattern of teams from B-word province being first and last in all editions :p

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 14 Sierre -> Cassano Magnago

Today's stage was mostly flat except for the Sempione Pass, a category 1 climb straddling the Swiss-Italian border.

Pretty low scoring affair, due to a large breakaway that initially involved several TCAT riders: Bettiol (CHX), Armirail (PTM/MCB), Gaviria (GHS), Barta (BDC) and Barguil (DED). Ultimately, only Bettiol, third, Barguil, eleventh, and Armirail, fifteenth, stayed in it enough to get stage points, though all five won breakaway points. Logically then, it's Cyclohexane who wins the day, and the only other teams to break 100 points are Port Maxhestic, MCB and Dead Last.

The peloton definitely took it easy today, finishing a whopping 21 minutes later... too much for Geraint Thomas (GNH/KIN) to hold on to maglia rosa, which goes to Bruno Armirail (PTM/MCB) by about a minute and a half! We had just witnessed evergreen Thibaut Pinot (BDC/CHX/CFA) stake his claim to yesterday's stage, the KOM classification and perhaps even the general classification, and now it turns out Groupama-FDJ has another GC contender in Armirail.
Will he be able to carry momentum into tomorrow and last week, and stay in the battle for a would-be first Grand Tour win against so-far favourites Thomas and Roglic?

Standings after Stage 14:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu de Cézembre Pterodactyls (BDC)	5132	+96
2nd	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5050	+250
3rd	(+1)	Maritiimi-Maxhestic Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	3880	+71
4th	(+1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3751	+129
5th	(-1)	Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3668	+25
6th	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	3665	+80
7th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	3587	+131
8th	(+1)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3348	+120
9th	(-1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	3275	+40
10th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschă (CFA)	3268	+70
11th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3155	+52

[Iason Taiwos]

Seeing how crappy the Gordon Hiatus Support Team is doing, I'm regretting not having a Cjovani team this time around...! (Probably wouldn't do much better, tho. The Cjovani Team Advisor, whose suggestions led us to victory in the first ever match, has lost interest in cycling. And his advice was vital to our success.)

[Glüc]

too much for Geraint Thomas (GNH/KIN) to hold on to maglia rosa, which goes to Bruno Armirail (PTM/MCB) by about a minute and a half!

Wow, Armirail! I did not see that coming. Does that mean Port Maxhestic is back in the race for the podium now? Maybe...

[Audrada Roibeardet]

McNulty gets the win!