2023 Talossan Cycling Association Tour - Leg 1: Ortona -> Roma

[Audrada Roibeardet]

Fuck! Now Mads is out?!

This Giro is turning into an elimination race. Last man standing wins.

[Glüc]

Stage 13 Borgofranco d'Ivrea -> Crans Montana

Well six teams got some pretty bad news again as Pedersen woke up sick and withdrew.

After that the stage was actually quite interesting. The bad weather conditions caused the organisers to shrink the stage down to 75 kilometers, transporting all riders by bus into Switzerland and starting at the bottom of what was supposed to be the second climb. As a result of that the racing was on as soon as the stage started and the peloton was torn apart in the first few kilometers. One group managed to get away, including Thibault Pinot (CHX/BDC/DED), who was arrived first on the Croix de Coeur to score a lot of KOM points.

After that there was a pretty dangerous descent over wet, small, bendy roads in poor condition, surrounded by snow. Thankfully riders were sensible enough to ride carefully and no further accidents happened.


_{Pinot leading the descent from Croix de Coeur (credit:Eurosport/GCN)}

The group managed to stay away for the remainder of the race, with Pinot being the first TCAT rider across the line and regaining the Maglia Azzurra (KoM classification jersey). In the favourites group, Carthy (PTM/DED) attacked on the final climb and managed to gain a couple seconds. Caruso (DED) also tried, but failed to get away. Thomas (GNH/KIN) and his teammates managed stay in complete control, losing no time to any serious contenders and limiting the time lost to the attackers. He will keep the Maglia Rosa. Almeida (CHX/GNH/VFL/PTM/BDC/DED) won the sprint in the favourites group but also didn't gain any time.

A good day for the Pinot gang, with BdC scoring the most points, followed by Cyclohexane and Cézembre Fieschă, although all three teams will also be hurting from the loss of Pedersen. At the same time, Velociposse and Els Gagnheirs, who should have better teams left for the mountain stages may be slightly disappointed as they didn't get closer to first place in the standings. Two good days for Els Averatxeirs were followed by a pretty bad day as they scored barely any points and drop back to fourth place. GHST, as expected due to being hit the hardest by the withdrawals so far, are now dead last.

Standings after Stage 13:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu de Cézembre Pterodactyls (BDC)	5036	+457
2nd	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	4800	+436
3rd	(+1)	Maritiimi-Maxhestic Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	3809	+273
4th	(-1)	Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3643	+36
5th	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3622	+257
6th	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	3585	+294
7th	(+1)	Dead Last (DED)	3456	+308
8th	(+1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	3235	+158
9th	(-2)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3228	+78
10th	(+1)	Cézembre Fieschă (CFA)	3198	+413
11th	(-1)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3103	+140

Tomorrow we have another intermediate stage, which will probably end in a bunch sprint (which would be bad news for BDC, MCB, PTM, and CFA who now suddenly have no sprinters left). However, the peloton will have to get out of Switzerland first, which involves going over a first category climb and may help give an early attack a sizeable headstart.

[Glüc]

The fight for the general classification (Maglia Rosa) is still wide open. Not much changed since last update. Thomas (GNH/KIN) continues to hold the lead, but Roglic (VFL/CFA) is close behind, and several others are still in with a chance.

A lot did change in the points classification (Maglia Ciclamino), as both the second (Pedersen, ATX/CHX/PTM/CFA/BDC), and third (Groves, MCB/BDC) placed rider dropped out, which means Milan (CHX) is now pretty much ensured to win, if he finishes the race.

In the king of the mountains classification (Maglia Azzurra) Pinot (CHX/CFA/BDC) took back the lead and is now looking like the main contender. There are still many points remaining in the final stages however, so pretty much every good climber still has a chance to win.

Expected extra final classification points at current standings:

Gagnheirs - 1460
Velociposse - 1440
BdC - 1115
Fiescha - 1050
Dead Last - 1020
Cyclohexane - 980
Kinetic - 945
Port Maxhestic - 805
Copacabana Boys - 495
GHST - 420
Averatxeirs - 375

BdC are still ahead if you add these to the current standings, although obviously the loss of both Pedersen and Groves since last update has been quite a blow. As a result, looking at the stages to come, I think Cyclohexane may now be the favourites due to the expected results of Milan. Els Gagnheirs and Velociposse are also still in a very good position, but will need to get a big result in one of the mountain stages. That didn't happen today, but could still happen in stages 15,16,18,19 or 20.

Behind those four teams, Dead Last, Cézembre Fiescha, Kinetic and maybe Port Maxhestic can all still hope for a top 5 spot, or even higher in case there are more surprises or one of these team gets a really good result in a stage. Of course, Fiescha is only 10th still, so this is still very speculative and there is no guarantee these points will actually come.

Els Averatxeirs are currently in fourth, but will likely drop more places in the mountain stages as they are badly affected by some of the dropouts.

The same goes for the Cabana Boys and GHST, who are probably the most likely contenders for last place.

Of course, there are still eight stages to come and there is a lot that can happen. Best to take this analysis with a grain of salt

[Audrada Roibeardet]

I'd be happy with a top 5 finish.

[Sir Lüc]

At this point I wouldn't mind finishing last if Cyclohexane wins, so at least we keep the pattern of teams from B-word province being first and last in all editions :p

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 14 Sierre -> Cassano Magnago

Today's stage was mostly flat except for the Sempione Pass, a category 1 climb straddling the Swiss-Italian border.

Pretty low scoring affair, due to a large breakaway that initially involved several TCAT riders: Bettiol (CHX), Armirail (PTM/MCB), Gaviria (GHS), Barta (BDC) and Barguil (DED). Ultimately, only Bettiol, third, Barguil, eleventh, and Armirail, fifteenth, stayed in it enough to get stage points, though all five won breakaway points. Logically then, it's Cyclohexane who wins the day, and the only other teams to break 100 points are Port Maxhestic, MCB and Dead Last.

The peloton definitely took it easy today, finishing a whopping 21 minutes later... too much for Geraint Thomas (GNH/KIN) to hold on to maglia rosa, which goes to Bruno Armirail (PTM/MCB) by about a minute and a half! We had just witnessed evergreen Thibaut Pinot (BDC/CHX/CFA) stake his claim to yesterday's stage, the KOM classification and perhaps even the general classification, and now it turns out Groupama-FDJ has another GC contender in Armirail.
Will he be able to carry momentum into tomorrow and last week, and stay in the battle for a would-be first Grand Tour win against so-far favourites Thomas and Roglic?

Standings after Stage 14:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu de Cézembre Pterodactyls (BDC)	5132	+96
2nd	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5050	+250
3rd	(+1)	Maritiimi-Maxhestic Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	3880	+71
4th	(+1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3751	+129
5th	(-1)	Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3668	+25
6th	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	3665	+80
7th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	3587	+131
8th	(+1)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3348	+120
9th	(-1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	3275	+40
10th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschă (CFA)	3268	+70
11th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3155	+52

[Iason Taiwos]

Seeing how crappy the Gordon Hiatus Support Team is doing, I'm regretting not having a Cjovani team this time around...! (Probably wouldn't do much better, tho. The Cjovani Team Advisor, whose suggestions led us to victory in the first ever match, has lost interest in cycling. And his advice was vital to our success.)

[Glüc]

too much for Geraint Thomas (GNH/KIN) to hold on to maglia rosa, which goes to Bruno Armirail (PTM/MCB) by about a minute and a half!

Wow, Armirail! I did not see that coming. Does that mean Port Maxhestic is back in the race for the podium now? Maybe...

[Audrada Roibeardet]

McNulty gets the win!

[Glüc]

Stage 15 Seregno -> Bergamo

Today we got a stage that is somewhat reminiscent of Il Lombardia, a classic that is anually held in the same region and is considered one of the five cycling monuments.

With various climbs along the way and a restday tomorrow there was enough opportunity for gc contenders to attack. However, for most of the race they seemed content letting Armirail (MCB/PTM) keep the maglia rosa. Instead we got an succesful early breakaway with several riders including Healy (BDC), McNulty (VFL/MCB/KIN), and Berwick (VFL). Berwick couldn't keep up with the rest and was caught back by the peloton. Healy and McNulty however made it to the finish together after several attempts to attack failed. In the end it was McNulty who won the stage in the sprint.

Behind them Armirail did end up losing 33" after an attack by Almeida (CHX/GNH/VFL/PTM/BDC/DED) and Roglic (VFL/CFA), but this was not enough to lose the pink jersey. Almeida ended up winning the sprint in the group of favourites, which also included most other GC contenders except for Armirail.

A big win for the Velociposse, scoring the most points and climbing to the third place in the standings, but also an important second place for BdC, extending their lead over Cyclohexane. The other McNulty teams, Kinetic, and the Copacabana Boys, also did well.


Standings after Stage 15:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu de Cézembre Pterodactyls (BDC)	5462	+330
2nd	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5166	+116
3rd	(+3)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	4078	+413
4th	(-1)	Maritiimi-Maxhestic Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	4030	+150
5th	(-1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3887	+136
6th	(+1)	Dead Last (DED)	3736	+149
7th	(-2)	Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3714	+46
8th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3662	+314
9th	(=)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	3594	+319
10th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschă (CFA)	3339	+71
11th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3176	+21

Tomorrow the riders will have a very well deserved rest day after a harsh second week, but on tuesday we continue with the most challenging stage so far, moving northeast from Lombardy to Trentino. A stage with 5 summits ending on the first category Monte Bondone. Only very strong climbers can win here. Maybe we'll finally see Roglic, Thomas or Almeida win a stage.

[Breneir Tzaracomprada]

Our time has come.

[Sir Lüc]

I shall fill the rest day with more side classification updates. Usual reminders:

• Sprinters' classification is daily points classification points ("PC" on Velogames) + intermediate sprint points ("Spr").
• Climbers' classification is daily KOM classification points ("KOM") + summit points ("Sum").

Both classifications are largely unchanged, but as you might notice from the length of my writeups, one has largely played out and the other has lots of opportunities for shakeups.

Sprinters' classification after stage 15

• Increasingly few chances to shoot for a high placement: of six stages, just 17 and 21 are sprinter oriented, where a sprinter would be expected to get a high stage finish and move the board on the maglia ciclamino standings (which yields daily points classification points).
• Even the intermediate sprints by now might be quite unfeasible for true sprinters, especially when there's one or more climbs to get there.
• I think Cyclohexane has this in the bag, and BdC can also reasonably expect to defend P2.

1. Cyclohexane (283)
2. Banqeu de Céz (205)
3. Averatxeirs (140)
4. Fieschă (111)
5. Port Maxh (108)
6. MCB (107)
7. Kinetic (81)
8. Gagnheirs (75)
9. Velociposse (71)
10. Dead Last (68)
11. GHST (38)

Climbers' classification

• We have three proper mountain stages coming up + a climbing ITT, with a whopping 7 category 1 climbs, each yielding Velogames points to the first five riders to cross (first gets 15).
• Also coming up is stage 19's finish, which is the highest summit of this year's Giro: the first eight riders will get a sizable amount of points (30-25-20-15-10-6-4-2).
• The KOM classification (maglia azzurra) is looking like a four-way fight between Davide Bais, Einer Rubio, Thibaut Pinot and Ben Healy.
• Due to holding both Pinot and Healy, BdC looks like the favourite to retain their current lead to the finish.
• Healy's sudden appearance in particular is an obvious death blow to Cyclohexane, who basically need to pin all their hopes on Bettiol (not exactly a climber) or Kuss (who is probably needed to help Roglic).
• Fieschă may be in a better position because of holding Roglic: if he is to contest the overall Giro win, he surely must be scoring at least some KOM points in the coming stages. Cyclohexane will need Almeida to do well to at least keep their current standing.
• Not only that, BDC also holds Aurelien Paret-Peintre, who's tenth in the KOM classification (daily KOM points are paid out to the top 6). To be fair though, Armirail, Berwick and McNulty are right behind him, so there's a fair chance to get some precious extra points for Velociposse, MCB, Port Maxhestic and Kinetic.

1. Banqeu de Céz (209)
2. Cyclohexane (162)
3. Fieschă (146)
4. Velociposse (35)
5. MCB (30)
6. Gagnheirs (23)
7. Port Maxh (21)
8. GHST (20)
9. Kinetic (16)
10. Dead Last (15)
11. Averatxeirs (0)

[Glüc]

So two weeks down, one week to go. Time to have another look at the classifications
EDIT: I didn't know Lüc was also doing the TCAT sprinters and climbers classification today, so I guess you all are lucky because you get double the usual amount of analysis today!

Here I will look at the current individual classification standings and what that means the likely final extra classification points, and say a bit about which team is currently favourite to win overall (spoiler: it's me again :p)

General classification (Maglia Rosa):
_{Top 30 score final classification points, final winner scores 600}
1. Armirail  (PTM/MCB)
2. Thomas (GNH/KIN) +1'08"
3. Roglic (VFL/CFA) +1'10"
4. Almeida (CHX/GNH/VFL/PTM/BDC/DED) +1'30"
6. Caruso (DED) +2'36"
7. Kämna (VFL/GHS/BDC) +3'02"
9. Arensman (MCB) +3'55"
11. Pinot (CHX/CFA/BDC) +4'23"
12. Carthy (PTM/DED) +4'26"
13. A. Paret-Peintre (BDC) +4'30"
15. Buitrago (GNH) +6'22"
17. Haig (ATX/PTM/MCB) +7'48"
20. Kuss (CHX/GHS/CFA) +10'53"
21. Barguil (DED) +12'10"

Points classification (Maglia Ciclamino):
_{Top 10 score final classification points, final winner scores 120}
1. Milan (CHX) 164 pts
3. Ackermann (ATX/GNH/VFL) 88 pts
7. Cort (ATX/GNH/VFL/PTM/CFA/DED) 56 pts
9. Cavendish (DED/KIN) 51 pts

Mountain classification (Maglia Azzurra):
_{Top 10 score final classification points, final winner scores 120}
3. Pinot (CHX/CFA/BDC) 114 pts
4. Healy (BDC) 108 pts
10. A. Paret-Peintre (BDC) 22 pts

We haven't really gotten any stage where the GC has exploded yet. Instead Armirail out of nowhere scored 21 minutes in a breakaway and jumped to first place. The question is how long will he last in that position before one of the favourites attacks and wins enough time to take the Maglia Rosa (Roglic or Thomas are probably the best placed to do so). Few seem to think he will wear the Maglia Rosa in Rome, but we'll see. Stranger things have happened. In the mountain classification a lot can still happen. The winner of the points classification has pretty much been decided, unless Milan drops out.

As a result of the events in the gc, Port Maxhestic is now the team that would score the most final points with these standings. That would be enough to put them in third place overall. However, a lot of that depends on the points scored by Armirail, who is likely to drop back several spots.

Velociposse and Port Maxhestic are still in a good place to score many final classification points, but with many potential GC stages going to the breakaway rather than Roglic or Thomas they haven't done much to close the big gap in the standings between them and CHX/BDC. That could still happen of course, but these teams cannot afford any more missed opportunities if they want to stay in the race for the first spot.

As for the fight between BDC and CHX, after stage 14 I thought Cyclohexane would likely overtake BdC next wednesday with another good Milan score, but then stage 15 happened and BdC solidified it's lead, so now that seems unlikely. Of course there will be another Milan opportunity in the final stage, which could turn out to be decisive, but any good BdC result in the meantime or any missed Milan opportunity could make the gap too big to overcome, especially since BdC is currently on course to score more final classification points as well. Basically the stage 15 result means BdC are now back to being the favourites, although CHX/VFl/GNH and maybe PTM could still win.


Expected extra final classification points at current standings:

Port Maxhestic - 1310
Gagnheirs - 1170
Velociposse - 1160
BdC - 1015
Dead Last - 970
Copacabana Boys - 940
Cyclohexane - 855
Fiescha - 795
Kinetic - 580
GHST - 305
Averatxeirs - 280

[Glüc]

Profile of tomorrow's stage: