2023 Talossan Cycling Association Tour - Leg 2: Bilbao -> Paris

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

Heck yeah! MCB is bouncing back baby!

[Glüc]

Cav is pissed about the finish, by the way. I guess he's claiming he had shifting issues. If Cav doesn't win a stage, I riot.

I guess the script writers probably need him to do it in Paris.

[Glüc]

Unlike previous edition we got a lot of GC action in the first week. This already gives us a  pretty good sense of where the tour is heading, although nothing has been decided yet, especially the fight for the yellow jersey, which promises to be a pretty exciting battle. A good moment to have a first look at how many final points the teams might get and what that means for the overall TCAT standings.

The general classification (GC, green jersey) looks to be a duel between the same riders as last year, with Vingegaard currently ahead by 25 seconds of Pogacar. Behind them, Hindley (GNH/GHS/MCB) is currently best of the rest on 1'34". A large group is currently between 3 and 5 minutes behind on Vingegaard including Simon Yates (CJO/CAN), Rodriguez (VFL), Adam Yates (KIN/ATX/CAN), Gaudu (VFL/KIN/ATX/CAN), Bardet (CFA/PTM/MCB/ATX), and Pidcock (ATX/CAN/DED/GHS/VFL).

In the points classification (PC, green jersey), it is Philipsen (BDC) who already has a big lead after three stage wins (215 points against 127 for the number 2). The King of the Mountains classification (KOM, polkadot jersey) is still mostly undecided, with Gall (GNH) the TCAT rider with the most points (28) so far.

If these classifications didn't change, the teams would receive the following end-of-tour classification points:


Gagnheirs 1860
Cjovani 1645
Fiescha 1635
BdC 1565
GHST 1460
Kinetic 1325
Cantzeleria 1230
Dead Last 1180
Port Maxhestic 1130
Cyclohexane 1115
Velociposse 1080
Averatxeirs 1000
Cabana Boys 780

Perhaps unsurprisingly its the four teams that picked both Vingegaard and Pogacar that are ahead both in the current score and in the expected classification points. Of course its still very early and a lot can happen, but for now I would say these four teams are the favourites to win this edition.

Of these, Gagnheirs is probably strongest in the mountains, with Hindley as the current number 3 in GC and Gall doing well in the KOM classification.

Fiescha meanwhile is the only team that has two sprinters (Bauhaus + Cavendish).  Their team also includes Pinot, who did great in the previous edition and will surely be looking to win a stage.

BdC also performs well in the sprint with Philipsen winning all three so far, but unlike the other teams lacks a strong third GC option. Losing his position in GC might give Ciccone the freedom to go for stage wins or KOM points however.

Cjovani could do well in sprints with Groenewegen (although he has maybe disappointed a bit so far), in the mountains with Simon Yates, and in intermediate stages with Alaphilippe and the surprise of this edition so far, Lafay

[Sir Lüc]

Not like this :(

[Glüc]

Oof, that's rough. Such a sad ending to a legendary career. Commisserations to the Cavendish teams :(

[Audrada Roibeardet]

Cav looks absolutely gutted in that photo.

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 8 Libourne -> Limoges

Sadly, as I already anticipated earlier, Mark Cavendish - the greatest sprinter of all time - is TCAT France 2023's third abandon, due to a freak crash in the peloton. Absolutely not how we all hoped his last Tour would end, especially looking at how close he came to a record 35th Tour win yesterday.

An uphill finish ensures there won't be a bunch sprint.

Yeah, so that was a f'in lie. We all wanted an exciting breakaway and instead we got just three people who were caught easily enough. Besides, the profile turned out not be that prohibitive for even pure sprinters at all, as Philipsen and Groenewegen's result proved.

We did get an uphill mass sprint after all, won by Mads Pedersen (CAN/VFL/PTM) over Jasper Philipsen (BDC), Wout Van Aert (CHX) and Dylan Groenewegen (CJO). This ensures a Port Maxhestic stage win, also thanks to Pogacar's P10 and Bardet's P15, with the other five teams rounding out the top six.

We also get another lead change at the top of the TCAT overall standings, as Banqeu de Cézembre regains the top spot off their daily second place.

Standings after stage 8:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(+1)	Banqeu da Cézembre Runners Up (BDC)	3144	+361
2nd	(+1)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	3064	+302
3rd	(-2)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	3015	+198
4th	(=)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	2740	+218
5th	(+2)	els cantzelerïă aþletici (CAN)	2444	+348
6th	(-1)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	2362	+154
7th	(+2)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	2281	+387
8th	(-2)	Dead Last (DED)	2269	+110
9th	(-1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	2140	+112
10th	(+1)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	2091	+340
11th	(-1)	els Averatxeirs (ATX)	2000	+113
12th	(+1)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	1978	+281
13th	(-1)	The Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	1815	+117

Tomorrow we round out the extended first week with a hilly approach to Puy de Dome, a highest category climb with a summit finish (actually, the hardest summit finish for this year). Likely to feature another GC battle between Pogacar and Vingegaard, but perhaps a breakaway has a chance at a stage win considering there's no Tourmalet and Aspin on the way, like there was in stage 6? Definitely a stage worth watching either way.

[Glüc]

As mentioned by Lüc, today's finished is on Puy de Dome, a dormant volcano/lava dome which has a road that spirals around it to the top rather than the typical hairpin turns you would get in most summit finishes. The top also contains the ruins of a Roman temple. A very nice location for a finish. The last time Tour de France used this particular finish was in 1988. If we're lucky we'll get not one, but two battles here today, one for the stage win by the breakaway and one between Vingegaard and Pogacar (and other favourites) for time in the GC.

I am thinking of streaming the finish on discord. Lüc probably won't be there sadly, but if anyone is interested in watching, the finish is expected around 18:18 CEST (11:18 TST) and I may be streaming from  about 17:00 (10 am TST).


Puy de Dome


Profile

[Glüc]

MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT:

I made a big mistake when assigning a three letter code to els cantzelerïă aþletici. I went with CAN, but obviously that should have been SOS. I'm a bit disappointed nobody has pointed out this missed opportunity. Beter ten halve gekeerd dan ten hele gedwaald though, so we're changing it to SOS.

Stage update later today. Sadly a large break without many TCAT riders resulted in a fairly low-scoring affair.

[Glüc]

Stage 9 St-Léonard-de-Noblat -> Puy de Dôme

Not too many TCAT riders in the break today, with the exceptions of Boivin (CFA), and Abrahamsen (GNH). Neither of those managed to keep up on the final climb. After the stage win was decided it was of course Pogacar and Vingegaard who were the fastest in the group of favourites, dropping all other GC riders for another duel, which this time was won by Pogacar who gained another 7 seconds back.

Behind them, some of the losers were Hindley (GNH/GHS/MCB), who kept his third place in GC, but lost time on his direct competitors for the final podium spot, Gaudu (VFL/KIN/ATX/SOS), who dropped to 8th in GC and O'Connor (GHS) who lost a lot of time and dropped 7 spots. Instead, it was Simon Yates (CJO/SOS), Pidcock (ATX/CAN/DED/GHS/VFL), and Rodriguez (VFL), who managed to lose the least amount of time on the two favourites, with Pidcock gaining two spots in GC and Yates and Rodriguez closing in on the final podium spot.

The result was a very low scoring affair, with no changes in the standing. Like in previous mountain stages els Gagnheirs scored the most points. They are still in fourth place, but by having three riders on the podium and many more mountain stages to go they are very well positioned to win the edition after final classification points are awarded. This will depend on Hindley holding on to the podium however, so him losing time today may be cause for concern in the Gagnheirs camp.

Standings after stage 9:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Runners Up (BDC)	3302	+158
2nd	(=)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	3231	+167
3rd	(=)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	3196	+181
4th	(=)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	2959	+219
5th	(=)	els cantzelerïă aþletici (SOS)	2583	+139
6th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	2514	+152
7th	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	2394	+113
8th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	2383	+114
9th	(=)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	2257	+117
10th	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	2212	+121
11th	(=)	els Averatxeirs (ATX)	2094	+94
12th	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	2088	+110
13th	(=)	The Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	1866	+51

After an exciting first week the peloton will finally get its first rest day tomorrow. The day after that will be a hilly stage through the Central Massif, which feels like potentially a good day for a succesful early attack.

[King Txec]

I had no idea how you came up with the abbreviation so I didn't say anything.

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 10 Vulcania -> Issoire

Hope everyone had a nice rest day! The peloton hits the midway point of Tour with a stage that had breakaway written all over it, but whose initial stages were frantic and full gas, with multiple groups attempting to form at various points only to be foiled and reabsorbed. At one point, Vingegaard and Pogacar themselves were in the breakaway!

Ultimately, the race settled on a 12 man breakaway with a large TCAT representation that included Neilands (GHS), Perez (GHS/CJO), O'Connor (GHS), Alaphilippe (CJO/KIN/CHX/DED), Asgreen (CJO/GNH/MCB), Bilbao (BDC) and Skjelmose (VFL/MCB). Neilands attacked on the last climb, hoping to ride the last 32kms solo, but was foiled by a pursuing quintet including Bilbao and O'Connor that efficiently took turns pulling to reel him in.

Indeed, it was Bilbao who took the stage win in the six-man sprint, with O'Connor third and Neilands fourth. Skjelmose and Alaphilippe's quartet did not manage to catch up in time and finished 30" behind, with the bulk of the peloton arriving 2'53" from the front. Bilbao's win and sizable lead from the group of favourites nets him a whopping 6 places in the GC, where he's now fifth and definitely in contention for the podium. O'Connor finally gets a break after struggling in week 1, but even just the top 10 is still a whopping 5' away.

As for TCAT, we have two high scorers, GHST and BdC, and the other eleven teams enclosed in little more than 100 points. Which essentially means BdC pulling away from Cjovani, and GHST regaining P5, best-of-the-rest of the teams without both Pogacar and Vingegaard. Some other minor adjustments owing to small points differences between teams, but essentially a wash for everyone else.


Standings after stage 10:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Runners Up (BDC)	3659	+357
2nd	(=)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	3390	+159
3rd	(=)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	3293	+97
4th	(=)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	3144	+185
5th	(+1)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	2924	+410
6th	(-1)	els cantzelerïă aþletici (SOS)	2687	+104
7th	(+1)	Dead Last (DED)	2528	+145
8th	(-1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	2486	+92
9th	(+1)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	2395	+183
10th	(-1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	2392	+135
11th	(+1)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	2225	+137
12th	(-1)	els Averatxeirs (ATX)	2176	+82
13th	(=)	The Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	2058	+192

The Massif Central swing continues tomorrow with Clermont Ferrand -> Moulins, a stage that might favour breakaway riders who don't like much climbing (think Cort and Bettiol), but that will likely end in a sprint anyway. All depends on how large is the breakaway, and who ends up in it.

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

Who wants to party with the MCB at the bottom of the list!?

[Glüc]

Stage 11 Clermont Ferrand -> Moulins

The early attackers weren't given a chance today. It was only a small group that broke away from the peloton and they were never given more than 3,5 minutes, with the sprint teams strictly controlling the race. Amador did score some breakaway and int sprint points for els Gagnheirs.

The bunch sprint itself was again won by Philipsen (BdC). His fourth stage this edition already! Groenewegen (CJO) got his best result yet, but still came up short. Bauhaus (CFA) got third place again, with Pedersen (SOS/VFL/PTM) in the top 5 and Van Aert (CHX) in the top 10.

Banqeu da Cézembre got the most points today due to the effort by Philipsen, further extending their overall lead. Most other teams will be happy that we will likely have no more bunch sprints for at least a week from here on.


Standings after stage 11:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Runners Up (BDC)	4000	+341
2nd	(=)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	3672	+282
3rd	(=)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	3552	+259
4th	(=)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	3300	+156
5th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3046	+122
6th	(=)	els cantzelerïă aþletici (SOS)	2889	+202
7th	(+1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	2680	+194
8th	(-1)	Dead Last (DED)	2628	+100
9th	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	2598	+203
10th	(=)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	2477	+85
11th	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	2390	+165
12th	(=)	els Averatxeirs (ATX)	2281	+105
13th	(=)	The Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	2139	+81

Tomorrow we move east towards wine country as we get closer to the Alps. It's a transitional stage featuring a lot of climbs. The tour has been rough so far on puncheur type stagehunters, with GC favourites canibalising breaks and sprint teams not missing a single chance, even when the finish is uphill. That leaves loads of riders, including some big names like Alaphilippe, Van Aert and Cort Nielsen, without a result so far. For many of these riders tomorrow might be the last chance at a stage win. As a result, expect a big fight to get in the breakaway, which might take a long time to settle. Could be a fun stage to watch, with a finish that's hard to predict.

[Audrada Roibeardet]

Who wants to party with the MCB at the bottom of the list!?

The way things are going, I'll meet you at the bottom. Haha!

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 12 Roanne -> Belleville-en-Beaujolais

Another crazy breakaway stage, with over an hour and a half passing until a stable attack was allowed to form. Not many TCAT riders found themselves in the breakaway: Tiesj Benoot (VFL) and Thibaut Pinot (CFA/PTM/VFL) were the only ones who made it to the end, while Mathieu van der Poel (CHX/ATX) and Julian Alaphilippe (CJO/KIN/CHX/DED) also featured in it but were eventually dropped.

Velociposse wins the day and jumps to sixth overall by virtue of holding both Benoot (P4) and Pinot (P6), while the other two Pinot teams, Fieschă and Port Maxhestic, round off today's top 3. Fieschă also reaches second place overall, but leaders Banqeu da Cézembre still enjoy a healthy lead and a good daily result thanks to Van Gils (P11), in addition to the usual Pogacar (P12) and Vingegaard (P16). Adam Yates, who at one point looked in serious trouble of losing substantial GC time, ultimately got back to the main peloton and is the last TCAT rider to get stage points (P18).

Standings after stage 12:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Runners Up (BDC)	4208	+208
2nd	(+1)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	3828	+276
3rd	(-1)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	3821	+149
4th	(=)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	3492	+192
5th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3169	+123
6th	(+3)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	3023	+425
7th	(-1)	els cantzelerïă aþletici (SOS)	3021	+132
8th	(-1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	2964	+284
9th	(-1)	Dead Last (DED)	2713	+85
10th	(=)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	2582	+105
11th	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	2520	+130
12th	(=)	els Averatxeirs (ATX)	2388	+107
13th	(=)	The Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	2180	+41

Tomorrow is Bastille Day! Just one categorised climb, but it's the hardest kind possible: a Hors Categorie summit finish on Grand Colombier. Very likely to see breakaway attempts from the get-go, and act four of the Pogacar/Vingegaard GC fight on the 18 km final climb.

[Glüc]

Stage 13 Châtillon-Sur-Chalaronne -> Grand Colombier

A lot of people wanted to be in the break today, although it didn't take nearly as much time to form as yesterday. We did end up with a big group, including Van Gils (BdC), Shaw (PTM), Bettiol (PTM/CHX), Asgreen (CJO/GNH/MCB), Petit (CFA), and Wright (SOS/MCB). They never got much time on the long flat stretch of the stage however. At the foot of the 17 km climb to the Grand Colombier the break was about 3'50" ahead of the peloton.

Even so the winner did come from the break, with Van Gils also managing to stay ahead of the favourites and Shaw ending in 7th place, being only overtaken by four of the GC favourites: Pogacar, Vingegaard, Pidcock (SOS/VFL/ATX/GHS/DED), and Hindley (GNH/GHS/MCB). Pogacar won another couple of seconds on Vingegaard, but not enough to take over the lead in the general classification. The difference between them is only 9 seconds now, but the coming days could potentially lead to much bigger timegaps. We just don't know in whose favour. Simon (CJO/SOS) and Adam (SOS/KIN/ATX) Yates also ended up in the top 10 and both gained a spot in GC. Many of the other GC riders disappointed and lost time compared to their competitors.

Sadly, along the way there was some bad news for Dead Last, as Caleb Ewan gave up, knowing he wasn't gonna be able to make the time limit. For pure sprinters like him it's always a bit of a question whether they will make it through the mountain stages. Still, this is a big miss for Dead Last, as he would almost certainly have scored points in the final days of the tour if he would have managed to survive the next couple of mountain stage as well.

The most points were scored by BdC today due to the strong performance by Van Gils, with Gagnheirs also getting a good result, still . The other two teams with both Pogacar and Vingegaard (Cjovani and Fiescha) also scored well of course, but lost valuable ground in the race for the top spot. GHST solidified their fifth place, and Port Maxhestic climbed to 6th place. Despite the heat, the Cabana Boys had another bad day.

Standings after stage 13:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Runners Up (BDC)	4887	+679
2nd	(+1)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	4330	+509
3rd	(-1)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	4283	+455
4th	(=)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	4097	+605
5th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3715	+546
6th	(+2)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3418	+454
7th	(=)	els cantzelerïă aþletici (SOS)	3413	+392
8th	(-2)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	3336	+313
9th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	3090	+377
10th	(=)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	2898	+316
11th	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	2828	+308
12th	(=)	els Averatxeirs (ATX)	2678	+290
13th	(=)	The Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	2381	+201

We aren't leaving the alps anytime soon. Tomorrow we have a challenging mountain stage, with 3 category one climbs and another hors category summit as well followed by a downhill finish. Only very strong climbers will have a chance tomorrow. The question is what the GC favourites will do. Will they strategically wait until the final climb to attack or will one of try to break the other much earlier than that. In the latter case, tomorrow may well decide the tour.

Oh, and we're watching the finish on discord tomorrow (around 17:00 CEST/10:00 TST), so be there!

[Glüc]

Time for a quick update on projected end-of-tour classification points:

Gangheirs 1930
BdC 1710
Fiescha 1640
Cjovani 1610
GHST 1510
Port Maxhestic 1230
Kinetic 1200
Cantzeleria 1170
Velociposse 1170
Cyclohexane 1070
Dead Last 1025
Averatxeirs 915
Cabana Boys 635

The teams with both Vingegaard and Pogacar are still expected to get the most bonus points at the end, since they are the current 1 and 2 in the standings. Of those four teams, only Gagnheirs also has the current number 3, Hindley. This puts them in a great position. The final points alone won't be enough to win (although enough to overtake Naziun Cjovani), but it is also a great starting point for scoring more points in the coming mountain stages. Of course that does depend on Hindley keeping his third place, which became more likely today, but isnt at all guaranteed. Also, BdC has the big advantage of having Philipsen to score point in the final couple of days.

[Glüc]

Big crash (20-ish riders) at the start.

Abandon Meintjes (GHS) :(

Van Gils (BDC), Petit (CFA) continuing but not looking great either.

[Glüc]

Abandon Bardet (CFA/PTM/ATX/MCB)

Shaw (PTM) also crashed. Not sure if he'll continue. Edit: No :(

What's happening today???