2023 Talossan Cycling Association Tour - Leg 2: Bilbao -> Paris

[Glüc]

As this is the final restday of this leg of Talossan Cycling Association Tour, it might be a good moment for another overview of classifications.

Individual classifications

Current standing in the general classification (yellow jersey):
1. Vingegaard (CJO/CFA/KIN/GNH/BDC/CHX/DED)
2. Pogacar (CJO/CFA/GNH/BDC/PTM/GHS) +0'10"
3. Rodriguez (VFL) +5'21"
4. A. Yates (SOS/KIN/ATX) +5'40"
5. Hindley (GNH/GHS/MCB) +6'38"
6. Kuss (CHX/PTM) +9'16"
7. Bilbao (BDC) +10'11"
8. S. Yates (CJO/SOS) +10'48"
9. Gaudu (SOS/KIN/VFL/ATX) +14'07"
11. Gall (GNH) +14'39"

Everyone else is already more than 15 minutes behind. The gaps are already quite big, with only Vingegaard and Pogacar realistically still in the race for the overall win. Between the two of these the difference is negligible however, so nothing is decided yet. The winner gets their team 600 points in end-of-tour points, a full 100 points more than the runner up.

Current standing in the points classification (green jersey):
1. Philipsen (BDC) - 323 pts
2. Pedersen (SOS/VFL/PTM) - 179 pts
4. Van Aert (CHX) - 139 pts
5. Pogacar (CJO/CFA/GNH/BDC/PTM/GHS) - 129 pts
7. Groenewegen (CJO) - 92 pts
8. Girmay (ATX/GHS/MCB) - 90 pts

This one isn't particularly close, Philipsen is comfortably winning here (not surprising after 4 stages). The race for second place is still open however.

Current standing in the king of the mountains classification (polkadot jersey):
1. Ciccone (SOS/ATX/BDC/MCB/DED) - 58 pts
3. Vingegaard (CJO/CFA/KIN/GNH/BDC/CHX/DED) - 54 pts
4. Pogacar (CJO/CFA/GNH/BDC/PTM/GHS) - 48 pts
5. Van Aert (CHX) - 47 pts
6. Gall (GNH) - 32 pts
7. Hindley (GNH/GHS/MCB) - 31 pts

Ciccone has the smallest of leads here, but this is far from over. Just this wednesday it's possible for a rider to take home another 65 points, which means lots of riders could still potentially compete here. However, it seems very likely that the eventual yellow jersey winner will also take this one in the end.

Expected end of tour points

So what would these standings mean for the extra points the teams get at the end, if the standings remain unchanged?

Gagnheirs - 1870
BdC - 1840
Naziun Cjovani - 1585
Fiescha - 1510
Cyclohexane - 1380
Kinetic - 1350
GHST - 1180
Cantzeleria - 1180
Port Maxhestic - 1170
Velociposse - 1155
Dead Last - 1100
Averatxeirs - 875
Cabana Boys - 495

Team prospects

Gagnheirs are still projected to get the most end of tour points, but their lead has shrunk significantly, partly due to Hindley not keeping up. In addition they didn't really score as many points as expected in the previous two alpine stages. As a result, it seems increasingly unlikely they will catch up with BdC. Despite the new name, the BdC runners up seem on course for their first TCAT victory, although it is by no means guaranteed yet.

Similarly, Naziun Cjovani may just be too far behind to catch up, although being more competitive in the sprints means they could still hang on to second place, despite the classification advantage of Gagnheirs. Maybe they could still pull of another stunt and get their second win.

Fiescha meanwhile is being weighed down by the unfortunate departures of Cavendish and Bardet and will need a change of fortune to finish on the podium. (Some more good scores from Pinot and Bauhaus maybe?)

After the four teams with both Pogacar and Vingegaard there is a bit of a gap. GHST, Velociposse, Port Maxhestic, Cantzeleria (who are having a strong debut and are boosted by the results of the Yates brothers) and Cyclohexane could all realistically still compete for 5th place, although Port Maxhestic has been hindered by dropouts more than most other teams, which might make it difficult to hang on to their current seventh place.

Cyclohexane are currently in 9th but are likely to gain a couple more spots due to end of tour points, having no dropouts yet and Van Aert in particular being on good form.

Kinetic Racing also would be projected to gain spots based on their classification standings, but that gain might be limited because they won't be competitive in the remaing sprint stages without Cavendish. Of course Dead Last might be in an even more difficult position having lost not one but two sprinters.

Finally, I'm afraid it's hard to see based on this how the Cabana Boys could recover from their current last place given they really have only one rider competing in the top of the GC. Their best hope is some poor performances from Yates and Gaudu and strong performances from Hindley and Skjelmose, which might help them compete with Averatxeirs for 12th place.




Six stages to go!

[Glüc]

TCAT riders trying to break away from the peloton, with obligatory Banqeu da Cézembre/Cézembre Fiescha  supporters flying Cézembre flags. (From Letour.fr)

[Iason Taiwos]

I'd like to commend Glüc and Lüc for their in-depth coverage of the Tour. I'm immensely enjoying it this year (some of you may know what I've been through lately, so this has been a pleasant diversion.) (I've just been following their posts, and the re-cap videos on YouTube.) Team Cjovani has been doing better than I expected, given that everybody I picked besides Pogacar and Vingegaard were totally random!

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 16 Passy -> Combloux (ITT)

The lone time trial of TCAT France 2023 is over. Many speculated that having only 22kms of time trial in the entire Tour would make it barely count, drowned out by the many opportunities to make up time by attacking in the regular stages.

Boy, were they wrong. Jonas Vingegaard pulled a stunning 1 minute, 48 seconds gap over Tadej Pogacar, himself racing a strong time trial that saw the third place finisher, Wout van Aert, a further 1'13" (!!!) back. And this, again, was over the span of a mere 22 kilometres. (Remember how Evenepoel won the 35km Savignano-Cesena ITT by just one second in TCAT Italy 2023?)

Banqeu de Cézembre claims a second stage victory, pretty much sealing their win in TCAT France 2023. Unlike in Giro, there is just no conceivable way in which a new Cyclohexane might come from behind to steal a last gasp triumph. At this point, the fight is among Cjovani, Gagnheirs and Fieschă for the two remaining podium positions, and look out for the 5-team fight for fifth place too, to decide who's going to be best among the teams who didn't pick both Pogacar and Vingegaard. Only 56 points separate 5th and 8th, with Cyclohexane in 9th place on the up and up who will likely benefit by a larger boost from post-Tour points.

Standings after stage 16:
                                                           

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Runners Up (BDC)	6415	+646
2nd	(=)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	5716	+626
3rd	(=)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	5629	+556
4th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	5536	+476
5th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4485	+237
6th	(+2)	els cantzelerïă aþletici (SOS)	4476	+429
7th	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4438	+343
8th	(-2)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	4429	+305
9th	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	4216	+471
10th	(+1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	4029	+445
11th	(-1)	Dead Last (DED)	4008	+277
12th	(=)	els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3405	+210
13th	(=)	The Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	2899	+141

With a lead of two minutes over Pogacar, Vingegaard is now a strong favourite for the overall win. It's not over, but if Pogacar is to claim the yellow jersey, a major attack has to happen tomorrow, in this Tour's queen stage. Stage 18 is for sprinters, stage 19 is probably for a breakaway, and stage 20 doesn't seem hard enough for a last gasp attack to gain much time back.

[Glüc]

Tomorrow's finish...

[Glüc]

Stage 17 Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc -> Courchevel

"I'm gone. I'm dead" - Tadej Pogacar, July 19th, 2023, through his team radio, about 4 km from the summit of Col de La Loze.

The queen stage of this edition of the Talossan Cycling Association Tour started with two first category summits. We got a massive break, including several riders who are high placed in GC. Gaudu, Pinot, Gall, O'Connor, Peters, Simon Yates, Neilands, Skjelmose, Ciccone, Alaphilippe, Benoot, Bilbao, Cort, and Mühlberger were among the names represented. Ciccone, managed to score the most King of the Mountains points in the first half of the stage.

There was some bad news for Cézembre Fiescha, as Bauhaus abandoned after being dropped from the peloton early. Not sure what happened there. Maybe he was just exhausted and didn't see a path to finishing within the time limit. Either way it's yet another blow to Fiescha who are now missing both sprinters in the final sprint stages.

The second half of the stage focused on the terrifying Col de la Loze, a relentless 28 km climb with some ridiculously steep sections. Felix Gall (GNH) was the strongest in the break, scoring loads of KOM points on the summit and winning the stage. Out of the break, Simon Yates (CJO/SOS), Bilbao (BDC), and Gaudu (SOS/KIN/VFL/ATX) also did well, finishing in the top five on a day where big time differences were made in GC.

Behind them the real spectacle happened. Until yesterday Vingegaard and Pogacar had been neck and neck, but it is clear now that Vingegaard has survived the grueling three weeks better than Pogacar, whose energy reserves turned out to be empty today. He was dropped from the group including Vingegaard (who ended in fourth place today) on the Col de la Loze and started falling behind so quickly that at one point even his second place in GC looked shaky. Pogacar finished 7'37" behind Gall and 5'45" behind Vingegaard. As a result Vingegaard has a comfortable lead now. If he makes it to Paris, he will win the tour.

With the General and Points classification basically decided, only the fight for the King of the Mountains classification remains close. Ciccone is in the lead with 88 points, but Gall and Vingegaard are close behind with 82 and 81 respectively. There is one mountain stage to go, on saturday, which will likely decide which of these three gets to wear the Polkadot Jersey in Paris.

As for TCAT, Els Gagnheirs won the most points today, but not enough to threaten BdC for the final victory. The battle for second place will still be interesting though as Els Gagnheirs now lead Naziun Cjovani by a single point. Els Gagnheirs are likely to get more end-of-tour points, but Naziun Cjovani will score more points in the sprint stage that are about to come, so this could go either way.

The results by Yates and Gaudu meant that els cantzeleria also had a great day, regaining fifth place in the standings. GHST meanwhile had another poor day and drop back to 7th place, which interestingly enough means they are exactly tied with Cyclohexane now. Talk about family rivalry...

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Runners Up (BDC)	6928	+513
2nd	(+1)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	6207	+578
3rd	(-1)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	6206	+490
4th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	5838	+302
5th	(+1)	els cantzelerïă aþletici (SOS)	5013	+537
6th	(+2)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	4753	+324
7th	(-2)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4608	+123
7th	(+2)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	4608	+392
9th	(-2)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4589	+151
10th	(=)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	4511	+482
11th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	4312	+304
12th	(=)	els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3707	+302
13th	(=)	The Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3033	+134

Tomorrow we finally leave the Alps, heading to the northwest for a stage that is only slightly hilly and seems well suited for a bunch sprint. Of course, quite a number of sprinters including Ewan and Bauhaus did not manage to get across the alps, which reduces the number of candidates for the stage victory, but maybe opens up a very slim possibility for a break to pull of an upset, as there will be fewer teams chasing. Still a bunch sprint seems the most likely option. We'll have to find out if five challenging alpine days have affected the form of the remaining sprinters.

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 18 Moûtiers -> Bourg-en-Bresse

In a TCAT 2023 that seemed to be inexorably marching towards inevitability - specifically Philipsen (BDC) as the dominator of sprint stages, and Banqeu da Cézembre as the all-but-certain winner - we are still getting a few surprises along the way!

Specifically, a trio made up of non-TCAT Vincent Campenaerts and Gagnheirs duo Jonas Abrahamsen and Kasper Asgreen (also CJO/MCB) pulled away as the seemingly doomed small breakaway of most flat stages destined for a bunch sprint. Not this one, though! After being joined by Pascal Eenkhoorn with 25km to spare, the breakaway actually barely made it to the finish line over a charging peloton, largely due to Campenaerts's heroic effort pulling in front for over a kilometer before the final stretch.

Ultimately it is Asgreen who prevailed, over Eenkhoorn and Abrahamsen. Philipsen had to settle for fourth, with Pedersen (SOS/VFL/PTM) fifth. The result is a huge win for Gagnheirs, who make up over 300 points on Banqeu da Cézembre on the latter's turf thanks to Asgreen and Abrahamsen, and may have suddenly swung TCAT wide open again. (Incidentally, ending up 17th!!! out of 30501 Velogames users! This has to be one of the best performances in TCAT history when compared to the whole Velogames playerbase.)

By the way, two TCAT riders didn't start today: Anthony Perez (CJO/GHS) and much more importantly, Wout van Aert (CHX), who is back to Belgium to be by his wife for the birth of his second child. This leaves Gagnheirs and Banqeu da Cézembre as the only complete rosters.


LTR: Abrahamsen, Asgreen and Eenkhoorn, with the peloton a mere ten meters behind


Standings after stage 18:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Runners Up (BDC)	7204	+276
2nd	(=)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	6815	+608
3rd	(=)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	6578	+372
4th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	5930	+92
5th	(=)	els cantzelerïă aþletici (SOS)	5218	+205
6th	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	5030	+277
7th	(+2)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4792	+203
8th	(-1)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	4710	+102
9th	(+1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	4695	+184
10th	(-2)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4675	+67
11th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	4472	+160
12th	(=)	els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3778	+71
13th	(=)	The Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3315	+282

We're left with two likely breakaway stages, one hilly and one mountainous, and the Champs Elysees sprint finale on Sunday. With Gagnheirs stronger in the mountains and Banqeu de Cézembre being favoured on the flat stuff, might this come down to whom between Felix Gall (GNH) and Giulio Ciccone (BDC et al.) wins a very tight race for the King of Mountains classification? Or will TCAT be decided by another instance of either team overperforming on what are supposed to be the other's strong points?

Stay tuned to find out!

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

In previous editions, I tried to pick an all-around team.  My guess was that I'd be more likely to win by picking overlooked folks instead of the high-point stars.  I thought that would maximize the circumstances needed to get lucky: don't try to pick the best of the best, since I have no ability to distinguish cycling talent, and instead just roll the dice with people who wouldn't be on other rosters.  This didn't turn out to be the case, since even when my picks did do better than expected, someone else usually picked them too.  I kept finishing in the middle of the pack.

This time around, I did the opposite, and went with powerhouses.  There wasn't a clear rationale here (beyond "Well hell, I might as well try something very different").  It's turning out well, and hopefully we're going to be making a "run on the bank" very soon!

[Sir Lüc]

In previous editions, I tried to pick an all-around team.  My guess was that I'd be more likely to win by picking overlooked folks instead of the high-point stars.  I thought that would maximize the circumstances needed to get lucky: don't try to pick the best of the best, since I have no ability to distinguish cycling talent, and instead just roll the dice with people who wouldn't be on other rosters.  This didn't turn out to be the case, since even when my picks did do better than expected, someone else usually picked them too.  I kept finishing in the middle of the pack.

This time around, I did the opposite, and went with powerhouses.  There wasn't a clear rationale here (beyond "Well hell, I might as well try something very different").  It's turning out well, and hopefully we're going to be making a "run on the bank" very soon!

Good insight! Spending big on both favourites definitely pays dividends at Tour, where Vingegaard and Pogacar are just on a whole different planet AND they often go for stage wins too, which boosts their score even further.

Tour is also front loaded, especially this year, so you get an immediate clear picture very early, which means the bulk of Velogames daily classification points goes to the ultimate winners, not to randos who happen to get lucky.

Compare this with Giro, where both Roglic and Thomas didn't win a single non-TT stage; Evenepoel dropped out when he was the lone real favourite; and the really tough mountains, where a grand tour is won or lost, only come from the mid-second week onwards. Recall how we got "randos" Leknessund and later on Armirail in pink each for multiple stages, while in Tour Vingegaard claimed the yellow jersey on stage 6 and never let it go.

So yeah, it's a little bit unclear if going for both favourites is as important at Giro and Vuelta, and I don't think you can even really narrow down the field to just two dominant riders like at Tour this year. I personally think this makes it rather exciting and unpredictable, and should lead to more variety in team choices. We'll see how it goes!

[Sir Lüc]

Of course, spending big on the favourites means potentially missing out on exciting picks, which is why ultimately decided to go for Hindley instead and not miss out on personal favourites Meintjes, Cort and Girmay.

Then Hindley faded away, Meintjes broke his collarbone, Cort never got involved in breakaways, and Girmay never got a real chance to contest a sprint out in front. O'Connor built on a third place at Dauphiné and an 8th at Vuelta last year by... never really being a factor. Pidcock's fabled stage hunting and downhill riding abilities never materialised. And while Neilands is currently the best 4-credit rider of Tour, he squandered a stage podium in stage 15, crashing with a service bike that was handing him water.

It is what it is 🙃

[þerxh Sant-Enogat]

On my side, I picked the 4 names Boivin Petit Galopin Pinot, because in french they mean "drink wine"; "small"; "small glass of wine", "pinot wine", a semantic field close to my heart stomach. Fun at the time, but not really paying off. At least "Bela Lugosi's dead"'s Bauhaus brought me some unexpected points

[Glüc]

Stage 19 Moirans-en-Montagne -> Poligny

If anyone thought TCAT was over, they were sorely mistaken.

This stage had enough vertical meters to have a strong chance of a break succeeding, so a big break was formed, including Benoot (VFL), Alaphilippe (SOS/KIN/CHX/DED), and Pedersen (SOS/VFL/PTM). However, there were plenty of teams who had no intention of letting Pedersen get away with the stage that easy, including Abrahamsen and his GNH teammates, who kept the gap small all day, and when the time came for the intermediate sprint, Philipsen (BDC), made the jump, taking Abrahamsen, Asgreen  (CJO/GNH/MCB), O'Connor (GHS), Laporte (KIN/VFL/DED), Groenewegen (CJO), Van der Poel (ATX/CHX), Bettiol (PTM/CHX), Pidcock (SOS/PTM/ATX/GHS/MCB/DED), Wright (SOS/MCB), and Neilands (GHS) with him.

Just before the group reached the bottom of the third category climb, three riders, including O'Connor and Asgreen jumped away, and they managed to stay away (probably helped by poor organisation in the chasing group). Asgreen was the first TCAT rider across the line, followed by O'Connor. Philipsen won the sprint in the chasing group, before Pedersen and Laporte.

Velociposse gained the most points, due to its strong representation in the chase group. Naziun Cjovani also did well. Gagnheirs managed to further eat into the lead by BdC, not by a large margin, but because of the big gains yesterday and additional gains in the classification standings they are now fewer than 300 points behind in the virtual standing. BdC still holds a significant advantage, especially because they also have good odds to do well on Champs Elysees with Philipsen, but considering how fast the advantage has shrunk in the past few days and with one mountain stage still coming up, this is not over yet.


Standings after stage 19:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Runners Up (BDC)	7479	+275
2nd	(=)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	7126	+311
3rd	(=)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	6921	+343
4th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	6021	+91
5th	(=)	els cantzelerïă aþletici (SOS)	5559	+341
6th	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	5471	+441
7th	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	5115	+323
8th	(+2)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4963	+288
9th	(-1)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	4949	+239
10th	(-1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	4938	+243
11th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	4754	+282
12th	(=)	els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3939	+161
13th	(=)	The Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3558	+243

Tomorrow the peloton heads north for a short, but explosive mountain stage in the Vosges mountain range. 37 KOM points are still up for grabs on 6 summits, so the battle for the Maillot à pois (polkadot jersey) is still wide open. Ciccone currently has a lead of only 6 points on Gall and 8 points on Vingegaard, so expect both Ciccone and Gall in the breakaway trying to score points on every summit. If Gall were to take the jersey from Ciccone, the lead of BdC over Gagnheirs would shrink even further. The final podium spot in GC might also be contested, with Rodriguez, Simon Yates,  and Bilbao all still potentially within range if Adam Yates, who is currently in third, has a really bad day.

[Glüc]

Final update on expected end-of-tour points:

Gagnheirs - 1995
BdC - 1930
Cjovani - 1775
Fiescha - 1530
Kinetic - 1420
Cantzeleria - 1330
Cyclohexane - 1140
Port Maxhetisc - 1110
GHST - 1095
Dead Last - 1090
Velociposse - 1080
Averatxeirs - 870
Cabana Boys - 445

I'm not going to the same head to head as last edition, partly because a number of spots have already pretty much been decided, whereas there is a large cluster in the middle still in the race for more than two different outcomes.

Anyway, some analysis:

BdC seemed safe before, but with the gap becoming a lot smaller in the last couple of stages, els Gagnheirs still has a slim possibility of an upset, especially if Gall and Hindley do well tomorrow and Philipsen for whatever reason doesn't partake in the sprint on Champs Elysees.

Naziun Cjovani is pretty much guaranteed of the third place unless something big happens.

The same goes for Cézembre Fiescha in fourth. The last few days have been horrible for them, but the end of tour points provided by Pogacar and Vingegaard should be enough to stay ahead of the current number five,

cantzelerïă aþletici, who in turn seem headed for fifth place. The gap with Velociposse Florencia isn't big, but the Velociposse is not doing too well in the classification standings. In fact Velociposse will need Rodriguez, Gaudu, or Pinot to improve their standing tomorrow not to lose their sixth place.

One possible contender for sixth is Kinetic Racing, who are currently in tenth, but might profit from the results of Vingegaard and Adam Yates. They need another good result tomorrow however, as they won't be able to count on Cavendish on the Champ Elysees. They have a decent replacement in the form of Laporte however, who may be contending in that stage.

Port Maxhestic need to defend their current 7th place, which will be difficult now that Pogacar is out of the race for the yellow jersey. Pogacar did announce that he wants to go for a stage win tomorrow, which would be a great help. Pedersen also seems to be in good form for the final stage.

Cyclohexane are likely to overtake GHST in the provincial family battle, but it's very close, especially now that Van Aert has left. GHST has also suffered from an unfortunate dropout and some poor performances lately. Like Port Maxhestic they too will root for a Pogacar stage win tomorrow. For both teams anything between 7th (if Kinetic underperforms) and 11th seems like a plausible outcome.

For that last result to happen, Dead Last will need an upset comeback however, as without both sprinters, and without many end-of-tour points predicted, improving beyond their current 11th spot will be difficult.

Els Averatxeirs and the Maricopa Cabana Boys are pretty much guaranteed to end up 12th and last, respectively, I'm afraid there simply doesn't seem to be a path for a different outcome there.

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 20 Belfort -> Le Markstein

The last mountain stage of Tour had one big open question - the KOM polkadot jersey classification battle between Giulio Ciccone on 88 points, Felix Gall on 82 and Jonas Vingegaard on 81.
Ciccone had to cross all of the (comparatively easier) first four climbs in first place to have the mathematical certainty to stay in front no matter what happened on the last two (harder) climbs; which he did, thanks in no small part to teammates Mads Pedersen and Matthias Skjelmose.

Afterwards, attention turned to Thibaut Pinot, on his last appearance in a Tour de France mountain stage. Pinot attacked on the climb towards Petit Ballon, the penultimate of six summits, and while he enjoyed a long solo ride among large crowds turned out to cheer him before retirement, he was caught with 13km to spare by Vingegaard, Pogacar and Gall, all hoping to get a second stage win: Vingegaard to seal his supremacy, Pogacar and Gall as a consolation prize for falling short in the general and KOM classifications. Ultimately, it was Pogacar who came out on top, in a five man sprint including Gall, Vingegaard and both Yates twins. Pinot had to settle for seventh, riding along with Bilbao and Barguil.

Gagnheirs wins the day, but they only make up 100 points on Banqeu da Cézembre, which means that the Cézembrean team enters the last stage with roughly 200 points to spare when accounting for end-of-Tour points. Something major has to happen to Jasper Philipsen for BdC to lose this.


Thibaut Pinot among the crowds on Petit Ballon

Standings after stage 20:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Runners Up (BDC)	8141	+662
2nd	(=)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	7888	+762
3rd	(=)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	7572	+651
4th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	6642	+621
5th	(=)	els cantzelerïă aþletici (SOS)	6008	+449
6th	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	5825	+354
7th	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	5574	+459
8th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	5354	+391
9th	(+1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	5351	+413
10th	(-1)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5290	+341
11th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	5083	+329
12th	(=)	els Averatxeirs (ATX)	4201	+262
13th	(=)	The Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3685	+127

So, all four classifications are decided. Eyes turn to the final sprint showdown in Paris on Champs Elysées: Vingegaard will lead the way to the closed circuit among the traditional champagne toasts and picture taking, then riders will be free to race the remaining 64km, 8 laps of the circuit.

[Sir Lüc]

Short guide to tomorrow's stage.

Teams and their remaining sprinters, arbitrarily rated out of five stars by yours truly:
- BdC has Philipsen (★★★★★);
- Cjovani has Groenewegen (★★★/★★★★);
- Gagnheirs has Aranburu (★★);
- Cantzeleriă, Port Maxhestic and Velociposse have Pedersen (★★★★);
- GHST, Averatxeirs and MCB have Girmay (★★/★★★);
- Kinetic, Velociposse and Dead Last have Laporte (★★★);
- Cantzeleria and MCB have Wright (★★), who *should* sprint in lieu of withdrawn Phil Bauhaus.

So everyone bar CFA and CHX has at least a sprinter, with Velociposse having two for sure, and Cantzeleriă and MCB likely two. These three, along with BdC because of Philipsen's dominance, are favoured to get a last stage win or at least to score comparatively high.

In addition, but very unlikely:
- Cyclohexane and Averatxeirs have van der Poel (★★★/★★★★), if he is allowed to sprint instead of Philipsen;
- Asgreen (★★/★★★) *might* sprint for Gagnheirs, Cjovani and MCB, but likely it will be Mørkøv who will sprint for Quick Step.
- Some teams do have leadouts (like Cjovani who has Rickaert), but it's so arbitrary whether they manage to win a few pennies by ending in the top 20 that I'm not going to mention them.

What each team needs to do in terms of stage points tomorrow to improve their position, when accounting for end-of-Tour points:
- Gagnheirs needs about 200 points on BdC to win TCAT France;
- Kinetic is virtually 7th, and needs about 80 points on Velociposse to get 6th;
- There's a three-way race for 8th-9th-10th between Port Maxhestic, GHST and Cyclohexane. GHST needs about 50 points on PTM, while CHX needs about 70.

All other teams are pretty much assured of finishing where they stand now.