Talossan Cycling Association Tour Season 4 Leg 1: Dürres -> Roma

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

GO MCB!

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

GO MCB!

They're movin' on up (movin' on up)
From the west side (movin' on up)
To a podium spot in the skyyy

Movin' on up (movin' on up)
From the west side (movin' on up)
They saddled up and oh, how they fly

[King Txec]

It took me a second because those aren't the lyrics at all haha.

-Txec R

[Sir Lüc]

Gonna try and quickly finish the update before bed with TCAT considerations and next stage preview.

Today was a restday which I of course forgot to mention. Tomorrow we start again with the second of two time trials, longer and flatter than the first. Tarling should probably be expected to win this if he managed to win the first one. Roglic got extremely close to winning the first TT, but he seems to have dipped a bit in form even if yesterday's time loss was mostly bad luck. Ayuso can do well in TTs but I don't know about ones this flat and long; in similar ones he lost 50" to Roglic at Dauphine 2024 and 35" at Vuelta 2023. And Van Aert, usually an outstanding time trialist, seems conversely to be healing from whatever malaise he had.

The fact a long, flat ITT is coming up should be reason to be reasonably cautious about the state of the general classification, and why it's probably better to defer discussing the outlook right now.

This weekend marked a meaningful shuffling in GC, with riders such as Gee, Poole and Fortunato falling way out of contention, Roglic dropping from wearing the pink jersey on Saturday to tenth now, while others like Carapaz and Ciccone climbed back into the top 10. But this also means that the top 10 presently has at least two or three climbers (Carapaz and Ciccone themselves, but also Bernal) who are likely going to pay at least two minutes tomorrow, if not more, and others who are just worse than others around them, like the Yates brothers when compared to McNulty and Roglic or even to Arensman and Vacek who lie in wait just outside the top 10. And of course the lead may well change hands again as I think Ayuso doing 1'13" better than Del Toro over such a long TT is possible.

So: the GHST domination of the first week is probably over, but it's too early to say who's best placed to win it all. The one thing I'm sure about is that tomorrow's ITT will be pivotal, because after that I don't really see any days for big GC shakeups until next week, meaning there's a good chance the general classification will be mostly stable for five or six stages, which means in turn that the same riders will not be allowed to go on breakaways and get stage wins, and the same riders will also collect a mostly predictable income of daily GC points (that's 30 points each stage for the leader).

[Sir Lüc]

Gonna try and quickly finish the update

he says,

[Glüc]

Starting times for selected riders today (TST, for local/Cézembre time add 7 hours):

TT favourites in bold
Outsider candidates in roman
GC contenders who arent TT specialists in italics


06:26 - Zijlaard (CJO)
06:51 - Černý (PTM)
06:55 - Affini (VFL/DED/CHX)
07:31 - Baroncini (MCB)
07:34 - Van Aert (VFL/MAN/KIN)
07:36 - Tarling (GHS)
07:37 - Vine (KIN)
07:43 - Pedersen (PTM/GHS/CFA/CHX/BDC)
08:08 - Martinez (MAN)

Still in contention for GC [time deficit]
08:48 - Poole (GHS/MAN) [5'35"]
08:49 - Fortunato (GHS) [5'08"]
08:50 - Ulissi (REX/ATX/EVC) [4'56"]
08:51 - Gee (REX/KIN/ATX/EVC) [3'59"]
08:54 - Harper (BDC) [3'39"]
08:55 - Pidcock (CJO/VFL/REX/DED/KIN/BDC/EVC) [3'35"]
09:01 - Vacek (ATX) [3'23"]
09:04 - Arensman (REX/BDC) [3'21"]
09:10 - Storer (BDC) [3'03"]
09:13 - Roglič (CJO/PTM/GHS/CFA/DED/MAN/CHX/KIN/MCB) [2'25"]
09:16 - Adam Yates (CJO/CFA/CHX/BDC) [2'01"]
09:25 - Simon Yates (VFL/KIN/ATX) [1'42"]
09:28 - Ciccone (DED/CHX/ATX/EVC/MCB) [1'41"]
09:31 - Carapaz (PTM/VFL/REX/EVC/MCB) [1'40"]
09:34 - Tiberi (VFL/REX/DED/CHX/EVC) [1'30"]
09:37 - Ayuso (CJO/PTM/GHS/CFA/VFL/MAN/ATX/BDC/MCB) [1'13"]
09:40 - Del Toro (NPC) [0'00"]

[Glüc]

Update (7:04):
Zijlaard (CJO) currently in 4th place after 9 riders have finished. Thats not gonna be enough to score points today. Meanwhile Černý (PTM) is now 2nd at the first timepoint where 32 riders have passed. Not a bad start. Let's see how he does on the rest of the parcours. Affini should soon be passing the first timepoint as well.

Update (7:07):
Affini (VFL/DED/CHX) 4" quicker than Černý at t1, but not enough to be in the lead there.

[Glüc]

Update (7:29)

Affini a slightly disappointing second place at the finish (after 36 riders finished), with Hoole probably overtaking him as well soon based on his time at t2. Černý currently 5th. Not sure that's gonna be enough for points (which requires a finish in the top 20).

[Glüc]

Update (7:50). Tarling (GHS) just passed the first timepoint and as expected takes the lead with a time thats 17" quicker than the number 2 so far. Is GHST heading for another stagewin and extending their lead?

Meanwhile Van Aert (VFL/MAN/KIN) is now in fourth place at t1 (ahead of Affini). Vine (KIN) unfortunately had a mechanical issue and had to change bikes which pretty much ends his chances at a strong result today.

[Glüc]

Update (8:03) Tarling slower than Hoole at t2! We could have a very surprising winner today if things stay the same. (Of course all the GC favourites still have to start)

Pedersen (PTM/GHS/CFA/CHX/BDC) does not look to be competing for the win. Vine did have a strong second part after his bike change and passed t2 in 7th place after 78 riders, with 93 still to come. Baroncini, Van Aert and Cerny are now in 11th, 12th and 13th respectively at t2, which probably means none of them will make the top 20.

[Glüc]

121 riders have finished. 50 still to go, but this includes all gc favourites, so dont expect anyone outside the current top 5 to make the top 20 overall.

TCAT riders in the current top 15:

2. Tarling (GHS)
4. Affini (VFL/DED/CHX)
5. Vine (KIN)
11. Baroncini(MCB)
12. Van Aert (VFL/MAN/KIN)
14. Černý (PTM)

[Glüc]

Vacek (ATX) had a very strong start. Arensman (REX/BDC) not so much :(

(Unfortunately next update will be final stage update, as I will get distracted soon)

[Glüc]

Roglic not a good start at all!! (Also its raining now)

[Glüc]

Stage 10 Lucca -> Pisa (ITT)

121 riders have finished. 50 still to go, but this includes all gc favourites, so dont expect anyone outside the current top 5 to make the top 20 overall.

TCAT riders in the current top 15:

2. Tarling (GHS)
4. Affini (VFL/DED/CHX)
5. Vine (KIN)
11. Baroncini(MCB)
12. Van Aert (VFL/MAN/KIN)
14. Černý (PTM)

Well, right as I posted this the rain set in, forcing the riders who still had to go to be more careful in the corners and significantly slowing down the GC favourites. In the end even Černý managed to retain his top 20 spot with an 18th place. The only GC contenders who managed to (barely) make the top 20 were Gee (REX/KIN/ATX/EVC), Poole (GHS/MAN) and Roglic. Tarling kept his second place.

The results impacted the GC standings as well. Both Yates twins, Roglic, Arensman, Gee, Harper and Poole all gained spots, while Ciccone, Carapaz, Storer and Vacek lost ground. Roglic especially significantly reduced his gap with the pink jersey.

Lüc's suggestion that GHST dominance would be over turned out to be false hope for the competition as GHST riders improved their standing in GC while the team extended its lead by scoring the most points on a low scoring day.

Standings after stage 10:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4146	+295
2nd	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	3739	+213
3rd	(=)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3412	+98
4th	(=)		BdC Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	3347	+89
5th	(=)		Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3233	+132
6th	(+1)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	3156	+233
7th	(-1)		Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	3136	+92
8th	(=)		Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	2997	+108
9th	(+1)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	2907	+198
10th	(-1)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC) (EVC)	2841	+97
11th	(=)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	2736	+91
12th	(+1)		Kinetic (KIN)	2534	+226
13th	(-1)		The Manilows (MAN)	2450	+119
14th	(=)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	2398	+95

Tomorrow we move further north for somewhat of an intermediate stage. There is a first category climb, but that's only about halfway and it's followed by mostly hilly terrain, which makes it an excellent opportunity for a break and probably another fairly low scoring stage.

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 11 Viareggio -> Castelnovo ne' Monti

Quick scoring update while I wait for work stuff to work. In a stage that looked like breakaway material, but ended up going to the GC guys, congratulations to EVC for an emphatic daily win and a stunning six riders in the stage top 10. We also have a new podium placed team in the overall standings as the Cabana Boys gain two spots. Two places gained by the Royals as well as they lift themselves off the bottom.

Standings after stage 11:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4443	+297
2nd	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	4159	+420
3rd	(+2)		Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3904	+671
4th	(-1)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3869	+457
5th	(+1)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	3866	+710
6th	(-2)		BdC Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	3760	+413
7th	(+3)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	3681	+840
8th	(=)		Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3509	+512
9th	(=)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	3427	+520
10th	(-3)		Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	3393	+257
11th	(=)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	3129	+393
12th	(+2)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	3103	+705
13th	(-1)		Kinetic (KIN)	2882	+348
14th	(-1)		The Manilows (MAN)	2661	+211

We're in for a triplet of possible sprint stages, starting today with a hilly first half and a pancake flat 80km to the end.