Talossan Cycling Association Tour Season 4 Leg 2: Lille -> Paris

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

Well...at least I didn't lose any ground in the overall standings!

Give it time, my squad has plenty of days left to mess the bed apparently

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 11 Toulouse -> Toulouse

TCAT resumes after the first restday (sorry for no analyses) with a stage around Toulouse featuring moving terrain and a few key short but steep climbs (we've had a few of these already). Prime opportunity for a breakaway, and indeed today's initial attackers were five, including CJO and GHS's Jonas Abrahamsen, and chased by a further group of five that featured Wout van Aert (EVC), Mathieu van der Poel (BDC/CHX/GHS/VFL) and Axel Laurance (BDC).

Abrahamsen himself prevailed among the front group to take the win, with only non-TCAT Schmid staying with him to take second and Mathieu van der Poel launching a solo attack to take third place well ahead of the other pursuers - Van Aert took 5th and Laurance 6th place. I speculated this could have been a sprint stage had it been properly managed by sprint teams but the terrain was just too impervious for pure sprinters and most were dropped. It was however fertile terrain for the more punchy sprinters, with PTM's Kaden Groves winning the peloton sprint for 11th, Romain Grégoire (BDC/CHX/DED/REX/VFL) taking 14th and Louis Barré (EVC) 17th.

Abrahamsen and van der Poel give today's daily win to GHST, ahead of BDC (MVDP and Laurance) and CJO (Abrahamsen). No changes in the overall standings though, and not much to report in the general classification either except for Matthias Skjelmose (CFA/CJO) surprisingly dropping three further places to the benefit among others of Ben O'Connor (BDC) - this is still over five minutes away from the top ten however.

Standings after stage 11:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	4724	+287
2nd	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4415	+514
3rd	(=)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	4097	+257
4th	(=)		Cézembre Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	3754	+380
5th	(=)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	3619	+346
6th	(=)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3388	+143
7th	(=)		Cézembre Fieschǎ (CFA)	3231	+106
8th	(=)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	3126	+116
9th	(=)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	2855	+227
10th	(=)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	2541	+113

Tomorrow, the first serious mountain stage with a summit finish on the mighty Hautacam. Expect the fight for the yellow jersey to heat up again, as we get to the Pyrenées in a trio of stages that will definitely see Pogacar and Vingegaard duel it out to put time on each other and the other GC contenders.

[Glüc]

TCAT entered a new phase yesterday as we arrived in the Pyrenees for a challenging mountain stage with an uphill finish on the Hautacam, a climb of the highest category, preceded by two more climbs of first and second category. A massive break of 52 riders got away early, with Armirail (GHS) being the last man standing, but he was overtaken by the favourites on the final climb. The stage turned out to be very revealing as riders finishing were separated by many minutes. In fact it may turn out to be decisive for the final outcome. The big winner:

Pogacar (CFA/CHX/CJO/GHS/PTM), who finished more than two minutes ahead of everyone else.

Vingegaard (BDC/CFA/DED/EVC/PTM/VFL) disappointed with a second place

Lipowitz (EVC) did well in third place, not far behind Vingegaard

Johannessen (DED) far exceeded expectations and got fourth

The same goes for Onley (CJO), in fifth place.

6th: Vauquelin (CHX/GHS), who also did very well and was surprisingly able to keep a strong position in GC

Evenepoel (BDC/CHX/CJO/DED/GHS/REX) massively disappointed

Gall (BDC/EVC) finished in 8th position

Roglic (REX) also disappointed for a 9th place

Jorgenson (EVC/REX), O'Connor (BDC), Rodriguez (GHS), Skjelmose (CFA/CJO) and Mas (PTM/VFL) all lost a lot of time, along with Healy (CFA), who was leading GC before yesterday, but was not expected to keep up in the mountains.

The result: Esqipă Velocostă won the day and gain a place in the standing. GHST and Naziun Cjovani also did very well, whereas Velociposse and Els Talossaes Rexhitais had a poor showing. Of course the stage also had a big impact on GC, which is gonna impact end of tour points, so it might be worth taking a look at that very soon.


Standings after stage 12:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	5305	+581
2nd	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	5028	+613
3rd	(=)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	4396	+299
4th	(=)		Cézembre Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	4272	+518
5th	(=)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	4218	+599
6th	(=)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3957	+569
7th	(=)		Cézembre Fieschǎ (CFA)	3807	+576
8th	(+1)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	3488	+633
9th	(-1)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	3425	+299
10th	(=)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	3101	+560

Exciting developments, but the race for GC isn't gonna slow down anytime soon as today it's time trial time again and not a flat one, but an uphill TT to the ski resort of Peyragudes. Expect big timegaps again.

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 13 (ITT) Loudenvielle -> Peyragudes

Second and last time trial for this edition, this time 11km of climbing to the Peyragudes ski resort. The outcome was not much different than yesterday: Pogacar is again simply on another planet and Vingegaard while valiant can only muster best of the rest. Primoz Roglic (REX) took a surprising third ahead of teammate Florian Lipowitz (EVC), showing improved form as did Matteo Jorgenson (EVC/REX, 6th). Who definitely disappointed was Remco Evenepoel, who finished a distant 12th and worse than Onley (CJO, 7th), Martinez (REX, 9th), Gall (BDC/EVC, 10th) and Vauquelin (CHX/GHS, 11th). The Belgian, however, kept his third place in GC by just 6" over Lipowitz - it seems even snatching a final podium will be a tough fight for him.

Today's daily win goes to EVC for a second day in a row, as even though Lipowitz dropped a place they gained another top 10 finisher in Jorgenson. In doing so, they continue their move to the top and they certainly are looking promising (though Jorgenson losing time yesterday didn't help). Another team who definitely looks very threatening is Naziun Cjovani, whose fifth place today is enough to leapfrog them into the provisional overall podium and who can count on Oscar Onley's strong form to bring more points in.

Standings after stage 13:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	5728	+423
2nd	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	5499	+471
3rd	(+2)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	4663	+445
4th	(-1)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	4657	+261
5th	(-1)		Cézembre Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	4630	+358
6th	(=)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4492	+535
7th	(=)		Cézembre Fieschǎ (CFA)	4304	+497
8th	(=)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	4054	+566
9th	(=)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	3862	+437
10th	(=)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	3424	+323

Surely one of Tour's queen stages coming up tomorrow, with four categorised climbs, of which the first one is the mighty Tourmalet (HC), followed of course by Col d'Aspin (2nd cat.), then Peyresourde (1st cat.) on the way to a second Hors Catégorie summit finish in three days at Superbagnères. A third Pogacar triumph in as many days incoming?

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

I think it's time...

It's time to climb!



Those are some good-looking standings up top, but I know what's better than three Belacostan flags.

[Glüc]

Stage 14 Pau -> Luchon-Superbagnères

Two high profile dropouts yesterday: Skjelmose (CFA/CJO) had an unfortunate crash and abandoned, but the even bigger news is Evenepoel (BDC/CHX/CJO/DED/GHS/REX) gave up after dropping early in the stage. A major setback for the teams involved (including the entire current top 4).

A group of riders got away on the Tourmalet yesterday, with Martinez (REX) reaching the summit first and regaining the lead in the KoM classification. Most riders got caught by the favourites, except for Arensman who went solo at 36 km before the finish and scored an impressive stage win.

Behind him Pogacar (CFA/CHX/CJO/GHS/PTM) was again the fastest, beating Vingegaard (BDC/CFA/DED/EVC/PTM/VFL) in the final sprint. Gall (BDC/EVC) and Lipowitz (EVC) also did well, while Jorgenson (EVC/REX) lost a lot of time.

Esqipă Velocostă as a result gets the most points for the third time in a row, but this still wasn't enough to move up from spot 8. I expect them to gain a lot more when we get to the Alps however.


Standings after stage 14:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	6085	+357
2nd	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	5929	+430
3rd	(+2)		Cézembre Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	5081	+451
4th	(-1)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	5074	+411
5th	(+1)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4999	+507
6th	(-2)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	4944	+287
7th	(=)		Cézembre Fieschǎ (CFA)	4893	+589
8th	(=)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	4652	+598
9th	(=)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	4079	+217
10th	(=)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	3755	+331

Today a bit of an in between stage, finishing in the very pretty ancient city of Carcassonne. Expect a reduced sprint or a succesful attack by a punchy rider. The second stage win for Van der Poel or the first stage win for Van Aert perhaps.

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 15 Muret -> Carcassonne

Quick scoring update for yesterday's stage that saw Tim Wellens get a solo win, with Cjovani's Campenaerts narrowly ahead of a sprint of about 20 attackers that did not include any top 10 GC contender except for GHS's Carlos Rodriguez. The GC leaders finished well behind - truly a day for the break after three tough mountain stages.

A fourth Velocostă win in a row, in what was overall a low scoring affair that saw the Belacostan team narrowly lead a group of four other teams with top 5 finishers: Campenaerts (CJO, 2nd), Alaphilippe (CHX/GHS, 3rd), van Aert (EVC, 4th) and Laurance (BDC, 5th). Also scoring points (and giving EVC the win over CJO) was Nys (12th and also of BDC/DED/REX), with Buitrago (CHX/DED/VFL) 15th and Rodriguez (GHS) 19th and last of the TCAT points-getters.

No meaningful changes in the standings but EVC finally is within striking distance of the middle of the pack. CFA sadly lost van Eetvelt, who did not start; this is their second abandon after Skjelmose. Cjovani still had the most abandons with three (Ganna, Evenepoel, Skjelmose). The only team without abandons so far is, unsurprisingly, EVC, with six teams affected by the Evenepoel dropout.

Standings after stage 15:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	6370	+285
2nd	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	6209	+280
3rd	(+1)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	5366	+292
4th	(-1)		Cézembre Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	5337	+256
5th	(=)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	5123	+124
6th	(=)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	5067	+123
7th	(=)		Cézembre Fieschǎ (CFA)	5013	+120
8th	(=)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	4976	+324
9th	(=)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	4190	+111
10th	(=)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	3896	+141

Today was a restday, we get going again tomorrow as we meet the Alps and Mont Ventoux. A rather flat, long approach to a single, tough 15km climb to the summit of Mont Ventoux and another Hors Categorie finish. Sprinters should finally see a few points coming in from the intermediate sprint, but the stage finish will probably be another one for GC riders, though it will be interesting to see if the mostly flat approach evens things out a bit.

[Sir Lüc]

The sole victim of the restday had to be a TCAT rider: Mathieu van der Poel (BDC/CHX/GHS/VFL) has pneumonia and decided not to start today. This brings GHST down to 6 riders standing, joint lowest with Cjovani, and the other three teams to 7. EVC remains the only intact team, although PTM is also pretty strong, having only lost De Buyst (a 4c unclassed, not particularly useful) which makes it the only other team with fewer than two abandons.

It is also wise at this point to take a peek at End of Tour points - those awarded to the top 30 riders in the final GC, the top 10 in the final points and mountains classifications, and the riders on the top 5 teams. With the current standings, they would look like this:

	Current	Daily	EOT	Total
GHS	6209	444	1365	8018
CHX	6370	372	1170	7912
PTM	5123	498	1675	7296
CFA	5013	534	1730	7277
EVC	4976	474	1710	7160
CJO	5366	384	1255	7005
BDC	5337	330	1070	6737
VFL	5067	270	895	6232
DED	3896	294	1000	5190
REX	4190	222	730	5142

Again, this assumes the standings will stay the same until the end, and doesn't account for the many points still on offer in stage finishes. It looks like there's a two-team fight for first place and then a very tight competition for the last podium place among at least three teams, but much can still change; MVDP retiring already takes away a potential stage winner in at least stage 21 from both GHS and CHX.

[Glüc]

Stage 16 Montpellier -> Mont Ventoux

Today's stage was mostly flat, except it finished on the legendary Mont Ventoux, a hors categorie climb (15,7 km, 8,8% average). The break managed to reach the foot of the climb with a sizeable lead over the peloton, and while Pogacar and Vingegaard managed to catch up with many of them on the way up, a couple managed to stay ahead including Healy (CFA) and Buitrago (CHX/DED/VFL). Mas (PTM/VFL), Alaphilippe (CHX/GHS), Roglic (REX) and Lipowitz (EVC) also finished in the top 10. Not too much happened in GC except Roglic gained the 5th place from Vauquelin (CHX/GHS) and Healy gained 9th place over Rodriguez (GHS).

As for TCAT, Cézembre Fieschǎ won the stage and gain two places in the standing. Cyclohexane and Port Maxhestic also did well, resulting in Port Maxhestic climbing to fourth place in the standings and Cyclohexane extending their lead over GHST.

Standings after stage 16:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	6842	+472
2nd	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	6555	+346
3rd	(=)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	5630	+264
4th	(+1)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	5593	+470
5th	(+2)		Cézembre Fieschǎ (CFA)	5578	+565
6th	(-2)		Cézembre Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	5536	+199
7th	(-1)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	5535	+468
8th	(=)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	5293	+317
9th	(=)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	4327	+137
10th	(=)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	4263	+367

Tomorrow could be either a break or a bunch sprint. Milan in particular needs this to be a bunch sprint if he wants to defend his green jersey over Pogacar, but there is some climbing along the way so attackers might see some chances here.

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 17 Bollène -> Valence

The rare (and pontentially last) bunch sprint opportunity did come to pass, in a rain- and crash-affected finale. A breakaway featuring CJO and GHS's Abrahamsen simply had no chance and was regathered in the final five kilometres. Jonathan Milan (VFL) won and extended his lead in the points classification, en route to potentially winning the PC in all three Grand Tours he's entered. Second, Jordi Meeus (BDC/EVC), with Bauhaus (CHX, 12th), Groenewegen (DED, 14th), van Dijke (CFA, 19th) and Groves (PTM, 20th) getting a few points as well.

Esqipă Velocostă gets another daily win, edging out Velociposse off of their vastly bigger daily classification points intake despite Milan pipping Meeus on the line. It is the Florencians however who gain four places in the insanely close midfield battle (6 teams in little more than the 220 points for a rider's stage win), while BDC also moves up thanks to Meeus.

Unfortunately, the crashes in the set up to the final sprint took out GHS's Carlos Rodriguez, who broke his pelvis and will not start today. Also abandoning TCAT, Fieschă's Danny van Poppel, due to the birth of his daughter.

Standings after stage 17:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	6951	+109
2nd	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	6675	+120
3rd	(+4)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	5828	+293
4th	(+2)		Cézembre Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	5791	+255
5th	(-2)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	5756	+126
6th	(-2)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	5712	+119
7th	(-2)		Cézembre Fieschǎ (CFA)	5702	+124
8th	(=)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	5610	+317
9th	(=)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	4397	+70
10th	(=)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	4372	+109

Today's stage is the first of two final yellow jersey deciders... if there was anything to decide, seeing as Pogacar seems unbreakable. But still, today features a whopping 3 hors catégorie summits (Glandon, Madeleine and la Loze) which will surely give more opportunities for the TCAT standings to shake up.

[Breneir Tzaracomprada]

Ohmygosh! We're back on podium! Huzzah!

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

Third place through eighth is an absolute cluster. Going to be quite the dash as we get closer to Paris.

Danny van Poppel, due to the birth of his daughter.

Aww, congrats to him!

Unfortunately, the crashes in the set up to the final sprint took out GHS's Carlos Rodriguez, who broke his pelvis

oh.

[Glüc]

Stage 18 Vif -> Courchevel (Col de la Loze)

Yesterday was the Queen stage of the tour, with three climbs of the highest category*. Vingegaard has announced he wanted to try an ultimate attempt to challenge Pogacar for the lead in GC. This would have required winning back a lot of time. He did try to attack a couple of times, but an all out attack never really materialised, so Pogacar was easily able to defend his lead and with only one more mountain stage to go has a 4,5 minute advantage. By finishing second on the Col de La Madeleine and second on the finish, Pogacar did gain the lead in the KOM classification as well. More interesting is the fight for third place where Onley (CJO) made up a lot of time on Lipowitz (EVC) and is now only 22 seconds away from the podium. The stage was won surprisingly by O'Connor (BDC), which also resulted in BdC scoring the most points.

As a result BdC climb to third place in the standings, while EVC also had a good day and enter the top 5.

_{*As a sidenote I happened to travel the final part of the route of the second climb, the Col de La Madeleine, last february. Only I was on skis and going in the opposite direction.}

Standings after stage 18:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	7301	+350
2nd	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	7031	+356
3rd	(+1)		Cézembre Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	6475	+684
4th	(+2)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	6335	+623
5th	(+3)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	6277	+667
6th	(+1)		Cézembre Fieschǎ (CFA)	6274	+572
7th	(-2)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	6235	+479
8th	(-5)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	6142	+314
9th	(+1)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	4816	+444
10th	(-1)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	4683	+286

Todaý is the final Alpine stage in the tour, and it's a short one, which has been shortened even more. 'Only' 93 kilometer including three summits and ending in another skiresort. This will likely be one for the GC favourites.

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

_{Only I was on skies and going in the opposite direction.}

Meh, details.

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 19 Albertville -> La Plagne

The last mountain stage was a shortened one that, apart for Thymen Arensman's second win, mostly confirmed the status quo. Vingegaard got P2 ahead of Pogacar in a two-rider uphill dash to the line. Florian Lipowitz (EVC, 4th) was the only one who could mostly stay with them, finally defeating Oscar Onley (CJO, 5th)'s bid to snatch third place in GC from him. Felix Gall (BDC/EVC, 6th) also did well and gained a place in GC to round off the likely final overall top 5. Seventh, and also gaining two spots in GC, is DED's Tobias Johannessen. The one to conversely lose out is Primoz Roglic (REX), who finished a distant 27th and dropped to 8th in GC. Kévin Vauquelin (CHX/GHS, 17th) did not have a brilliant day but Roglic's undoing means he will at least get to keep his 7th place overall.

EVC won the day again, confirming their domination in the mountain stages. They and CFA (today's second placed team) move up a place each, ironically at the expense of the other strong finisher of today, PTM - it's just this tight at the moment.

Standings after stage 19:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	7565	+264
2nd	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	7305	+274
3rd	(=)		Cézembre Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	6928	+453
4th	(+1)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	6904	+627
5th	(+1)		Cézembre Fieschǎ (CFA)	6857	+583
6th	(-2)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	6851	+516
7th	(=)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	6677	+442
8th	(=)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	6441	+299
9th	(=)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	5209	+393
10th	(=)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	4955	+272

(Today's stage considerations after the next bit)

[Sir Lüc]

Since we're mostly not gonna see big swings in GC in the remaining two stages, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at the current End of Tour points (+ the daily standing points) and how they will affect the current standings:

	Current	Daily	EOT	Total
EVC	6904	180	1815	8899
CFA	6857	200	1820	8877
CHX	7565	128	1100	8793
PTM	6851	194	1730	8775
GHS	7305	128	1130	8563
BDC	6928	136	1270	8334
CJO	6677	136	1325	8138
VFL	6441	100	880	7421
DED	5209	124	1130	6463
REX	4955	54	600	5609

It's gonna be the tightest finale in TCAT history. Velocostă and Fieschă are essentially going to score the same EOT points, which means they remain basically tied and their final standing hinges on whoever scores more stagepoints among them. And Cyclohexane is still not out of it despite a lacklustre performance on the mountains, as it does have some riders that might be suited to the remaining stages. Port Maxhestic is also going to score a lot of EOT points, bringing it also into contention for the final win. Somewhat familiarly, GHST is likely going to drop off the podium right at the end, as just five active riders make it impossible to score enough points.

BDC and CJO close off a virtual top-7 that has never been so tightly contested - if the virtual gaps were confirmed, we'd have the top 7 teams all within 761 points. In every past edition, we've never had more than just the top 3 within this same gap of the lead.

So strap in for the two remaining stages! Today's is a hilly one and likely to be targeted by lots of riders, which if I've learned anything means that only the lucky few to get in the decisive break/attack will actually contest for the win.

[Glüc]

Ooh, if Groves pulls this off, Port Maxhestic might be in a real good position here.

[Glüc]

Stage 20 Nantua -> Pontarlier

With this edition of TCAT being one of the most hotly contested so far, today was an important day. Surprisingly, it was won by Groves (PTM). Even more surprisingly Groves didn't win in a sprint, but attacking solo after being in a break which also featured Van den Broek (CFA), Gregoire (BDC/CHX/DED/REX/VFL), Jorgenson (EVC/REX) and Sweeny (PTM). Port Maxhestic won the day as a result and while they are still behind Cyclohexane and GHST, they are in a very strong position now. It is far from over however.

Standings after stage 20:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	7781	+216
2nd	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	7398	+93
3rd	(+3)		Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	7304	+453
4th	(+1)		Cézembre Fieschǎ (CFA)	7185	+328
5th	(-2)		Cézembre Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	7154	+226
6th	(-2)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	7144	+240
7th	(=)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	6790	+113
8th	(=)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	6659	+218
9th	(=)		Dirnalaiset Mortescu (DED)	5434	+225
10th	(=)		Els Talossaes Rexhitais (REX)	5253	+298

Tomorrow will be decisive stage, with the traditional finish on the Champs Elysees. However, there is another twist. Normally the finish in Paris is pretty much guaranteed to be a bunch sprint, but the organisation decided to shake things up and include three ascents of Montmartre, which provides an opportunity for puncheurs and potentially even some GC riders. (The stage seems almost intentionally designed for Van der Poel, but he abandoned earlier).

That means there are many riders who could win tomorrow. Groves could perhaps seal the deal for Port Maxhestic. Cyclohexane has Alaphilippe, Gregoire and maybe even Vauquelin who could do well here. Fiescha is also still in the race. Perhaps Healy or Van den Broek could do something. Esqipa Velocosta has Meeus for a sprint alongside Van Aert and Nys as potential winners, but unlike the other contenders for the overall victory, they don't have Pogacar, who might just be the favourite.

Four teams still with a clear shot at victory (and perhaps more with an outside chance). We will know as the teams cross the finishline around 19:30 (+/- 15 minutes) CEST (12:30 TST)

[Glüc]

1 lap to go. EVC has 2 in the current front group (Jorgenson and Van Aert), which puts them in a strong position. PTM, CHX, CFA all have 1, but that 1 is Pogacar.

[Glüc]

Van Aert might be the fastest sprinter in the group. If Van Aert wins here EVC might well get a second TCAT win. However Pogacar will likely try attacking again and if he gets away, maybe its Port Maxhestic that gets it...

(It might depend on what happens further behind as well)