Terpelaziun for the Minister of Public Records

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

My question is for the Minister of Public Records. Opposition politicians have been saying that this Government's performance on immigration has been notoriously bad, issuing calls for urgent action with a clear list of specifics.   Can the Minister provide any public records to compare immigration levels in this Cosa with previous terms?

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

Estimat Túischac'h,

While I thank the Member opposite for his question, I note that, apart from some dubious claims inserted into the preferatory text, his question appears to be identical either to one previously posed by a Senator, or to a supplementary question posed by the Member himself in that Senator's Terpelaziun thread. In either event, while duplicating Terpelaziuns could reasonably be considered a breach of decorum, in order to practice what I preach and promote a more professional environment, I would ask some leniency from the Chair for the Member, who I would encourage to simply keep the conversation in one thread. :)

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

S:reu:

In the other thread, I asked for context for immigration application numbers by considering the total successful immigrations as a percentage of the whole.  Here, I was requesting those naturalization numbers only, with the intent of following up with further questions.  So, begging the minister's patience, I'd repeat my request: how do current immigration levels compare with previous terms?

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

Estimat Túischac'h, I thank the Member for his clarification. In that case, quoting from my answer elsewhere:

Going again off the numbers found on Infotecă:

• 57th Cosă: 8/66 = 12%
• 58th Cosă: 8/86 = 9%
• 59th Cosă: 11/62 = 18%
• 60th Cosă: 6/69 = 9% (While the application numbers from the 60th Cosă as recorded in Infotecă appear to be accurate, the naturalization numbers appear to have a clerical error or two, so I arrived at a count of six simply by counting on the Database. I do intend to review the Infotecă numbers more thoroughly in the near future.)
• 61st Cosă through August: 1/43 = 2.3%

Therefore, the numbers he has requested are as follows, with additional Cosă terms thrown in for richer context:
61st Cosă through August: 1
60th Cosă: 6
59th Cosă: 11
58th Cosă: 8
57th Cosă: 8
56th Cosă: 2
55th Cosă: 4
54th Cosă: 4
53rd Cosă: 3
52nd Cosă: 9
51st Cosă: 6
50th Cosă: 18

Since I know the Member is as concerned with immigration numbers as I am, and that he would like to identify the source of the downturn, please allow me to offer a few impressions based on these numbers:

• The 50th - 52nd Cosas saw numbers on par with -- or in the case of the 50th, vastly exceeding -- the overall trend in the last few terms.
• The 54th - 56th Cosas appear at first glance to have been affected by the pandemic, which hit its major initial spread about halfway through the 54th term (March 2020).
• On the other hand, the pandemic would have been the perfect time for people to look for a little "escapism" from the broader goings-on, and could have found in Talossa. The pandemic also would not explain the drop from the 52nd to 53rd Cosas, as it had not yet become an issue.
• Partisan control also does little to explain the drops, since the Free Democrats were a member of the governing coalition from the 50th to 57th Cosas, which saw a downturn for a few terms before rebounding in the 57th (i.e. prior to the TNC taking control of the government).
• I did a little digging into Wittenberg's stats and I note that 2021 in particular was a down year for activity, which likely affected the 55th and 56th Cosas' numbers.
• To sum up, this data appears to imply the following:
  
  • Immigration numbers -- that is, successful immigration numbers -- may follow a natural longer-term cycle, several Cosas of higher numbers followed by several terms of lower numbers.
  • The atmosphere here on Wittenberg almost certainly plays a large part as well, with 2021's low activity and the present hostile environment as examples.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

S:reu:

I thank the minister for his response.  I am also grateful for the detailed analysis, even though I disagree with some of the conclusions.  Here are your numbers:

61st Cosă: 1
60th Cosă: 6
59th Cosă: 11
58th Cosă: 8
57th Cosă: 8
56th Cosă: 2
55th Cosă: 4
54th Cosă: 4
53rd Cosă: 3
52nd Cosă: 9
51st Cosă: 6
50th Cosă: 18

Looking at the numbers, I think it might be a good idea to set aside an attempt at a just-so story to explain everything.  This is a complicated question, capturing a lot about the state of our country and its governance.  Let's at least start out by focusing on the bottom line.

So, as a supplementary question, would you tell me if you agree that this is a fair way to describe the trendline:

The immigration rate badly slumped during the 53rd Cosa.  This slump continued for several terms, reaching a nadir during the 56th Cosa.  After that, the immigration rate improved over the succeeding three Cosas.  It peaked again during the 59th Cosa, but it has since badly slumped again.

Is that accurate?  I know it doesn't capture all of the subtleties, and that we can tell all kinds of stories to explain it, but I want to be sure that we agree on just the actual trend in this data.

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

S:reu:

I thank the minister for his response.  I am also grateful for the detailed analysis, even though I disagree with some of the conclusions.  Here are your numbers:

61st Cosă: 1
60th Cosă: 6
59th Cosă: 11
58th Cosă: 8
57th Cosă: 8
56th Cosă: 2
55th Cosă: 4
54th Cosă: 4
53rd Cosă: 3
52nd Cosă: 9
51st Cosă: 6
50th Cosă: 18

Looking at the numbers, I think it might be a good idea to set aside an attempt at a just-so story to explain everything.  This is a complicated question, capturing a lot about the state of our country and its governance.  Let's at least start out by focusing on the bottom line.

So, as a supplementary question, would you tell me if you agree that this is a fair way to describe the trendline:

The immigration rate badly slumped during the 53rd Cosa.  This slump continued for several terms, reaching a nadir during the 56th Cosa.  After that, the immigration rate improved over the succeeding three Cosas.  It peaked again during the 59th Cosa, but it has since badly slumped again.

Is that accurate?  I know it doesn't capture all of the subtleties, and that we can tell all kinds of stories to explain it, but I want to be sure that we agree on just the actual trend in this data.

Estimat Túischac'h,

The Member opposite is, by his own admission, a big fan of data and letting numbers speak for themselves, and I think it is fair to say that they do. In light of the fact that the he appears to agree with one of the main points that the Government has been making the entire time -- namely, that there is no single "silver bullet" to fixing the immigration issue -- I will withhold further comment on the numbers or descriptions thereof and let them simply speak for themselves.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

S:reu:

I do not consider this to be responsive to my question, but rather a refusal to answer it and redirection.

I believe my question is fair, phrased in a way that is clear, and directed under the authority of a legally binding terpelaziun. It might be uncomfortable, but that is not a legal excuse for ignoring it.

So, as a supplementary question, would the minister tell us if he agrees that this is a fair way to describe the trendline:

The immigration rate badly slumped during the 53rd Cosa.  This slump continued for several terms, reaching a nadir during the 56th Cosa.  After that, the immigration rate improved over the succeeding three Cosas.  It peaked again during the 59th Cosa, but it has since badly slumped again.

Is that accurate?  I know it doesn't capture all of the subtleties, and that we can tell all kinds of stories to explain it, but I want to be sure that we agree on just the actual trend in this data.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

S:reu:

I want to be accommodating, so I'll make it easier for the minister.  Rather than anyone's narrative, including mine, let's really just look at the numbers visualized.

Can the minister officially confirm that this chart is accurate?

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

S:reu:

I want to be accommodating, so I'll make it easier for the minister.  Rather than anyone's narrative, including mine, let's really just look at the numbers visualized.

Can the minister officially confirm that this chart is accurate?

@Mic'haglh Autófil, O.Be , I'd still love an answer to this, please.  I didn't tag you before, but we're some time past when I first asked a supplementary question.  If you would prefer I ask this just again as its own question, I am happy to do that.  It'd also be understandable if you just need a bit more time.  But I do have a significant number of further inquiries along these lines, so I'd love to move forward with this.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

S:reu:

If the minister would prefer, and considers that the supplementary question has already been answered, then I can make a new thread. It's unclear to me where we are with this, and I think this is a pretty urgent issue. It's also possible that the minister just doesn't have time in this week, in which case I am happy to be a little more patient.

@Munditenens Tresplet , hopefully you are checking your mentions: I wonder if you might weigh in? I'll be happy to accept any ruling, because I really do actually want to continue this line of questioning.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN-GC]

Tagging in for the Minister of Public Records here.

The Government reiterates the Minister's previous comment:

The Member opposite is, by his own admission, a big fan of data and letting numbers speak for themselves, and I think it is fair to say that they do. In light of the fact that the he appears to agree with one of the main points that the Government has been making the entire time -- namely, that there is no single "silver bullet" to fixing the immigration issue -- I will withhold further comment on the numbers or descriptions thereof and let them simply speak for themselves.

If the Member wishes to draw inferences from the data, he is entitled to do so, but the point of Terpelaziuns is to get information from the Government, not to ask for an opinion on an MZ's math or drawing skills, or to engage in Socratic dialogue. (Again, I wonder whether the Member understands that Parliamentary traditions of Question Time are different from the kind of questioning that goes on before committees in the US Congress.)

The Member is also entitled to ask this question, once again, in a new Terp - asking the same Terp over and over again seems to be the fashion. But it might be more useful if the Member would actually get to the point of what he thinks this data shows, and maybe the Government will comment on that.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

S:reu:

I am grateful for the Seneschal's attention, but I am trying to establish whether or not the presented information is correct.  I believe it is accurate, but I also don't want to get going on a line of inquiry if I'm just starting off with bad data.

I know it's frustrating to see me ask the same question, but believe me when I say that it's far more frustrating to have to ask that question over and over.  And that's especially true when it's something that's really important, like this issue!

As I said, I think this is an accurate rendition of the recent public record on immigration.  Can we just confirm that this updated representation of the public record is accurate, as verified by the Minister of Public Records (or the Seneschal on his behalf)?

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

S:reu:

I'll admit that I'm a little frustrated at this point.  I posted my original question on 2 Sep, and the minister declined to reply.  I followed up and asked him for the numbers, and he provided them along on 4 Sep.

Since that same day, I have been trying to follow up.  We're in a crisis -- they've admitted it! -- and I'd like to investigate evidence in the public record to help solve it.  Two officials now have each replied to say that they prefer not to answer, unless they like my line of inquiry.  It's been fifteen days.

At this point, I have made the question as simple as possible.  I am asking the person in charge of the public record -- which has often been out of date and which he himself complained might contain some errors -- if this chart is accurate according to the public record:

It's as simple as a yes or no.

If we don't know if the chart is accurate, then that's also a valid answer, and a problem with the public record that we'd need to discuss.

I know that both the minister and the Seneschal aren't particularly interested in my question.  I know that it might be embarrassing or annoying for them to have to answer questions from elected MZs.  But it's illegal to ignore a terpelaziun just because you'd rather talk about something else.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

S:reu Túischac'h:

No one has ever been held in Contempt of the Ziu before, but it's hard to see what else should happen if the Government has simply decided to ignore inquiries from the Ziu on one of the most important issues in the country.  We've watched a crisis unfold and worsen over the past two terms.  We need to discuss it.

I'm trying to just begin a conversation looking for patterns, since that might help us address root causes, and it's like pulling teeth to even confirm the first basic facts: is the data displayed in the chart below accurate, according to the public record?

Honourable Túischac'h @Munditenens Tresplet , what is the mechanism by which a finding of Contempt of the Ziu is decided upon?

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

Estimat Tuischac'h,

I have provided the most accurate numbers possible in response to the Member's question in multiple threads now -- both this one and a previous thread from the same Member. The numbers he is asking about were provided two-and-a-half weeks ago. I understand he has a situation to attempt to spin to his advantage, but the simple fact of the matter is that any sane, reasonable individual would see that the Terpelaziun at hand has been answered ad nauseam.

If the Chair wishes to compel me to answer further, I will await a ruling saying so.