Talossan Cycling Association Tour Season 5 Leg 2: Barcelona -> Paris

[Glüc]

Ayuso has dropped back to the group with Skjelmose a big blow to royal hopes. Maybe Van der Poel can do something tomorrow.

Cyclohexane still has Carapaz ahead, but will it be enough with the impact on GC likely limited?

Things are looking good for Menceis.

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 20  »  Le Bourg d'Oisans  ›  Alpe d'Huez

Couldn't watch as I was driving, so I'm just going to quickly copypaste the ProCyclingStats blurb:

A large breakaway formed on the opening climb while the peloton also maintained a relentless pace, quickly reducing the bunch. Pedersen was initially dropped but fought his way back and even managed to bridge to the break, securing enough points at the intermediate sprint to seal the green jersey. As the race wore on, only Kuss and Carapaz remained at the front. Kuss started the descent with a small advantage, but two crashes allowed Carapaz to pass him before the final uphill kilometres, take the stage victory and secure the mountains classification.

So Carapaz 1st, Evenepoel 2nd, Pogacar 4th, Del Toro 5th, Skjelmose 8th, Ayuso 9th, Seixas 10th, Johannessen 11st, Pidcock 16th. Stagewin goes to Cjovani for a second time, but Cyclohexane's second place is still enough to vault them to a (likely temporary) lead.

No changes in GC top 10, as Glüc hinted to, despite Ayuso's attempt at recovering some time. Johannessen did gain a place to 12th (which will be worth a meagre additional 12 points to GHS and VFL) but only because non-TCAT Van Wilder abandoned after a crash. Therefore, most of the end-of-tour analysis by Glüc should still be valid, but more on that later.

Standings after stage 20:

Pos	±		Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(+2)		Cyclohexane (CHX)	9327	+793
2nd	(-1)		Els Talossaes Rexhital (REX)	9257	+589
3rd	(-1)		Maritiimi-Maxhestic Mençeis (MMM)	9165	+567
4th	(=)		Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	8762	+499
5th	(=)		Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	8116	+485
6th	(=)		Esqipă Velocostă (EVC)	7382	+385
7th	(=)		Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	7266	+540
8th	(=)		Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	7171	+862
9th	(=)		Cézembre Caçeirs dals Mailintzarăs (BDC)	6875	+587

Today, the TCAT decider has been shortened to make sure the race is contained in Paris, and that emergency responders can be free to (sadly) deal with the wildfires nearby. Much like last year & the Olympic road race of 2024, it's not going to be a traditional Champs-Elysees sprint but rather 5 "short" laps of the Champs-Elysees + 3 "long" laps that also include an ascent of the famous Montmartre hill. Very likely hunting ground for classics riders and punchy sprinters. More on what that means for TCAT, again, later.

[Sir Lüc]

Gaps after adding current End of Tour points* and daily classification points for stage 21 (GC/PC/KOM daily points, and GC/TC assists):

MMM 0, CHX -178, REX -346

As things stand, the Mençeis are in the virtual lead of TCAT, with the only things missing being the points from today's stage (stage finish, intermediate sprint, breakaway points, stage finish assists, and maybe minor changes in the points classification).

Whether they actually do win TCAT or not depends on the stage outcome.

• Pretty sure the #1 candidate for the stage win is REX's Mathieu van der Poel, who last year had to watch this same stage from TV and no doubt has been waiting for this day for the last three weeks.
• However, the other two teams have Tadej Pogacar, who won't pass up any opportunity at having fun and placed fourth last year (last among a three-man sprint for second), which might limit REX's point gain to 100 at most.
• REX and MMM have Mads Pedersen, who also looks good on this type of parcours and may want to celebrate winning the points classification with a win.
• However, CHX has his teammate Mathias Vacek, who could perhaps be allowed to race for the win as a reward for helping Pedersen all Tour.
• REX has other legitimate top10 candidates too: Tom Pidcock and Dorian Godon could do well on this kind of parcours. And if it comes to a bunchsprint, however unlikely, they still are the one team with three sprinters (Pedersen, Godon and Bittner).

CHX and MMM don't seem to hold many other potential stage finish scorers, so most likely REX is the one who's going to score the most stage points. Whether they outscore the Mençeis by 346 is a different question; they'd need a MVDP win, and then (depending on what Pogacar does) 126 to 226 more points from Pidcock and Godon.

So that's REX's path to winning TCAT. As for CHX's path, Pogacar's result is going to be irrelevant because MMM also holds him, so they will really be rooting for Vacek to be given the nod instead of Pedersen. But even Vacek getting third and Pedersen not featuring at all would not be enough to overtake the Mençeis (and MMM can get triple Vacek assists by holding Skjelmose, Pedersen and Verona!), so either he does really well, or someone else comes in to help (Wellens, if he's not sick anymore? Baudin, for the sake of a French win in Paris? Kanter scoring maximum points at the intermediate sprint?). This all seems very unlikely.

TLDR: MMM advantage, REX with a chance if MVDP/Pidcock/Godon do very well, CHX almost hopeless.

*: EoT points per team were calculated by Glüc after stage 19, but the changes after stage 20 are minor

[Glüc]

Well that was a spectacular finish!