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Author Topic: VOTING: The Ranked Choice Constitutional Referendum  (Read 3565 times)

Offline Eðo Grischun

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Re: VOTING: The Ranked Choice Constitutional Referendum
« Reply #90 on: January 31, 2021, 12:10:17 AM »
If the Regent thinks it's proper to lump the Monarchy options together to "juke the stats", then it's only fair to do it for the other viewpoint...

The clearest mandate to take from this referendum is that the status quo was soundly rejected.

In round one, just 23 people voted in favour of the status quo, while 62 voted for options of change. That's 86% of first preferences seeking a change from the way things are today.  If we further look at those 62 ballots, only 4 of them selected the status quo option as their second choice.  Going to the next round only 14 of 62 ranked status quo as their third preference.

Even when lumping the two monarchy options together you only get 42%, but it should be pointed out that those two options are completely incompatible with each other.  Indeed, option 4 (for a wholly ceremonial Monarch) was the most preferred second choice to the voters who want an elected head of state as their first choice (22 of the 30).

The nation may be divided on what the future form of State should be, but it has spoken clearly in saying that the status quo must change.
The Rt. Hon. Senator Éovart Grischun S.H.

Distain and Minister of STUFF
Senator of Vuode

Offline Sir Alexandreu Davinescu

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Re: VOTING: The Ranked Choice Constitutional Referendum
« Reply #91 on: January 31, 2021, 12:31:46 AM »
If the Regent thinks it's proper to lump the Monarchy options together to "juke the stats", then it's only fair to do it for the other viewpoint...

The clearest mandate to take from this referendum is that the status quo was soundly rejected.

In round one, just 23 people voted in favour of the status quo, while 62 voted for options of change. That's 86% of first preferences seeking a change from the way things are today.  If we further look at those 62 ballots, only 4 of them selected the status quo option as their second choice.  Going to the next round only 14 of 62 ranked status quo as their third preference.

Even when lumping the two monarchy options together you only get 42%, but it should be pointed out that those two options are completely incompatible with each other.  Indeed, option 4 (for a wholly ceremonial Monarch) was the most preferred second choice to the voters who want an elected head of state as their first choice (22 of the 30).

The nation may be divided on what the future form of State should be, but it has spoken clearly in saying that the status quo must change.

I just said that.

...

But further, as the Seneschal points out, a large majority prefers some change as their first preference even as they disagree dramatically about what that change should be.  I wish there were a clear mandate in favor of the monarchy beyond overall topline preference that we continue to be a Kingdom of Talossa, but the topline result is about as sharply divided as one could imagine.

And zero people who chose Option 1 as their first choice chose Option 3 as their second, and likewise vice-versa.  We're sharply divided, even if a majority is in favor of some form of monarchy.  Again, I'd be interested in seeing more suggestions about further action we can take.  One possibility might be re-running the referendum.  Adding the option to strengthen the monarchy -- so that the status quo didn't represent one pole versus three other options -- and running it at an actual general ballot would be one possibility.  A detailed analysis of what happened with the Republic might be another, if people are still interested in adopting their governmental structure.  I'd be happy to keep discussing the numbers here, but I think it's pretty hard to slice-and-dice this any which way where it yields some sort of resounding mandate for action either way (either in solidifying the monarchy as it is or abandoning it).  I remain overall very happy with it, though, since I think it shows that the Talossan people still support the monarchy.  I think a higher turnout would have made that clearer.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2021, 12:35:27 AM by Sir Alexandreu Davinescu »
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Offline Eðo Grischun

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Re: VOTING: The Ranked Choice Constitutional Referendum
« Reply #92 on: January 31, 2021, 12:50:34 AM »
If the Regent thinks it's proper to lump the Monarchy options together to "juke the stats", then it's only fair to do it for the other viewpoint...

The clearest mandate to take from this referendum is that the status quo was soundly rejected.

In round one, just 23 people voted in favour of the status quo, while 62 voted for options of change. That's 86% of first preferences seeking a change from the way things are today.  If we further look at those 62 ballots, only 4 of them selected the status quo option as their second choice.  Going to the next round only 14 of 62 ranked status quo as their third preference.

Even when lumping the two monarchy options together you only get 42%, but it should be pointed out that those two options are completely incompatible with each other.  Indeed, option 4 (for a wholly ceremonial Monarch) was the most preferred second choice to the voters who want an elected head of state as their first choice (22 of the 30).

The nation may be divided on what the future form of State should be, but it has spoken clearly in saying that the status quo must change.

I just said that.

...

But further, as the Seneschal points out, a large majority prefers some change as their first preference even as they disagree dramatically about what that change should be.  I wish there were a clear mandate in favor of the monarchy beyond overall topline preference that we continue to be a Kingdom of Talossa, but the topline result is about as sharply divided as one could imagine.

And zero people who chose Option 1 as their first choice chose Option 3 as their second, and likewise vice-versa.  We're sharply divided, even if a majority is in favor of some form of monarchy.  Again, I'd be interested in seeing more suggestions about further action we can take.  One possibility might be re-running the referendum.  Adding the option to strengthen the monarchy -- so that the status quo didn't represent one pole versus three other options -- and running it at an actual general ballot would be one possibility.  A detailed analysis of what happened with the Republic might be another, if people are still interested in adopting their governmental structure.  I'd be happy to keep discussing the numbers here, but I think it's pretty hard to slice-and-dice this any which way where it yields some sort of resounding mandate for action either way (either in solidifying the monarchy as it is or abandoning it).  I remain overall very happy with it, though, since I think it shows that the Talossan people still support the monarchy.  I think a higher turnout would have made that clearer.



Quote
We're sharply divided, even if a majority is in favor of some form of monarchy.

We're somewhat divided, even if an overwhelming majority favours a fundamental shift from the status quo.
(FTFY).



Here, instead of politicking the heck out of the numbers and instead of talking about re-running the referendum and instead of trying to dismiss the legitimacy of this referendum over arguments of low turnout, maybe the best option might be the one that has already been suggested by the Seneschal.  Monarchists could put forward their input on how a compromise could be achieved.  Elected Head of State does not need to mean the abolition of the Monarchy.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2021, 12:59:14 AM by Eðo Grischun »
The Rt. Hon. Senator Éovart Grischun S.H.

Distain and Minister of STUFF
Senator of Vuode

Offline GV

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Re: VOTING: The Ranked Choice Constitutional Referendum
« Reply #93 on: January 31, 2021, 11:23:55 AM »
Malaysia.