Election Predictions

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

This is technically past Glüc's traditionally deadline of the 20th of the month, but I haven't been looking at the database, so it's similar to what I would have posted at the beginning of the election.

FreeDems - 90
TNC - 60
PDR - 30
Dien - 15
Mximo - 5

The max for the TNC is probably around 75; when the LCC ran in the 55th as the only party that was even mildly conservative, they won 73. When the Balance party ran in the 56th as the very conservative party, they won only 33, although I don't think they campaigned very much. Their result will probably depend on a few things:
-GOTV efforts of the TNC vs. FreeDems
-Whether the general perception of the TNC is "mainstream conservative" like the LCC or "hardcore conservative" like the Balance Party (or like the ZPT in the 54th, which won only 25). My guess is somewhere in between
-How many votes Dien gets. Last time, he won a healthy 14 seats; a similar performance this time would surely hurt the TNC most. Given the personnel of the TNC is largely the same as Balance, I imagine that the same people who voted for Dien because they were turned off by Balance could also be turned off by the TNC.

The PDR will be helped by the fact that there always seems to be more support for the smaller parties than people expect. Remember that the peculiarist parties, whose voters might be especially sympathetic to the PDR, won around 30-40 seats in the 54th and 55th. Who knows where KLüP and PT voters are going to go.

The FreeDems will be helped by the fact that the "New TNC" cannot really depend on any of the seven voters who voted for the "Old TNC" in the 56th. Those voters, as well as pro-compromise LCC voters (which would probably be most of them, given that is what the LCC campaigned on), would probably tend to favor the FreeDems over the new TNC (and probably over the PDR, who might be too extreme for them).

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

It occurred to me that a lot of my analysis might be incomprehensible to newer folks. If anyone would like a recent history lesson, just let me know and I'd be happy to oblige.

It also occurred to me that I just did that entire analysis without mentioning the RUMP or MRPT once. My, how times have changed.

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

It occurred to me that a lot of my analysis might be incomprehensible to newer folks. If anyone would like a recent history lesson, just let me know and I'd be happy to oblige.

You know you wanna  ;)

[Breneir Tzaracomprada]

This is technically past Glüc's traditionally deadline of the 20th of the month, but I haven't been looking at the database, so it's similar to what I would have posted at the beginning of the election.

FreeDems - 90
TNC - 60
PDR - 30
Dien - 15
Mximo - 5

The max for the TNC is probably around 75; when the LCC ran in the 55th as the only party that was even mildly conservative, they won 73. When the Balance party ran in the 56th as the very conservative party, they won only 33, although I don't think they campaigned very much. Their result will probably depend on a few things:
-GOTV efforts of the TNC vs. FreeDems
-Whether the general perception of the TNC is "mainstream conservative" like the LCC or "hardcore conservative" like the Balance Party (or like the ZPT in the 54th, which won only 25). My guess is somewhere in between
-How many votes Dien gets. Last time, he won a healthy 14 seats; a similar performance this time would surely hurt the TNC most. Given the personnel of the TNC is largely the same as Balance, I imagine that the same people who voted for Dien because they were turned off by Balance could also be turned off by the TNC.

The PDR will be helped by the fact that there always seems to be more support for the smaller parties than people expect. Remember that the peculiarist parties, whose voters might be especially sympathetic to the PDR, won around 30-40 seats in the 54th and 55th. Who knows where KLüP and PT voters are going to go.

The FreeDems will be helped by the fact that the "New TNC" cannot really depend on any of the seven voters who voted for the "Old TNC" in the 56th. Those voters, as well as pro-compromise LCC voters (which would probably be most of them, given that is what the LCC campaigned on), would probably tend to favor the FreeDems over the new TNC (and probably over the PDR, who might be too extreme for them).

This is impressive and well-argued analysis which is something I will always be a fan of, Ian. Of course, there are some elements on which I hope you are very wrong but nonetheless impressive.
Excited to see other predictions.

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

Who knows where KLüP and PT voters are going to go.

I thought Tafial was a republican? Would imagine at least a few PT voters may end up going our way

[NRB]

I predict the Democrats will lose seats, but that's not much of a prediction. Whoever wins the Presidency usually loses seats in the midterms. What I am interested in is seeing any anomalies pop up from the people running the elections. Your Trump MAGA Qanon crowd has been quietly trying to get on election boards and get to be secretaries of state and such. anything unusual in 2022 is just going to be a trial run for the 2024 Presidential election. And if there are anomalies, the Democrats are going to do nothing at all to stomp it down, because they are spineless cowards who will let it all happen in the name of "reaching across the aisle" or some crap like that.

oh you dont mean the US

oh

oops

never mind

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

Who knows where KLüP and PT voters are going to go.

I thought Tafial was a republican? Would imagine at least a few PT voters may end up going our way

The main plank of the PT was to decrease the number of Cosa seats so that parties like the PT could not win any seats. He intentionally did not campaign at all and wrote his 50-word statement in Talossan in an attempt to prevent anyone else from voting for him. He did end up with a second vote, though.

[Mic’haglh Autófil, O.Be]

Who knows where KLüP and PT voters are going to go.

I thought Tafial was a republican? Would imagine at least a few PT voters may end up going our way

The main plank of the PT was to decrease the number of Cosa seats so that parties like the PT could not win any seats. He intentionally did not campaign at all and wrote his 50-word statement in Talossan in an attempt to prevent anyone else from voting for him. He did end up with a second vote, though.

Politics done right

[Marcel Eðo Pairescu Tafial, UrGP]

Politics done right

Heh... I'll take the compliment, but ultimately I couldn't reach any of my objectives.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN-GC]

Turnout is at 76 with a few days to go, compared to 80 in total last time. So, it's likely to be a modest increase. Who will that benefit?

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

Looks like it will be almost flat. Maybe a point or two percentage increase? Probably to the FDT's benefit as the party in power, but maybe no real difference.

I'm sad to see that there are 22 citizens on the chopping block to lose their citizenship, compared to 8 last time.  That's a full 15% (!!) of our voters about to lose their citizenship.  I hope some of them are just waiting to the last moment to be dramatic.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

I've never bothered to look up a graph of our total population, but it occurs to me that the people now eligible to vote is about equivalent to the people who actually did vote back around the 45th-48th Cosa, back when I think we were at our peak population, before it started to decline.  It's surprisingly difficult to get citizen totals from the past, since it doesn't look like it was recorded anywhere.  Might be an interested project one day.

EDIT: Wait, we do have that, Dama Miestra makes them like this one: https://wittenberg.talossa.com/index.php?topic=892.msg7281#msg7281

Looks like our voting population is down like 40% or so from its peak?  Interestingly, it took a huge hit after the 45th (which is I remember when a ton of people lost their citizenship after the law was changed to something a bit less lenient than it is currently) but then returned back up to an even higher peak -- before the decline began.  The whole thing bears a closer look, really.

[King Txec]

Turnout is at 76 with a few days to go, compared to 80 in total last time. So, it's likely to be a modest increase. Who will that benefit?

Turnout is currently at 83, with about 30 hours left to go.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN-GC]

76% turnout in Fiova compared to 56% nationwide! The "Reuinision Province" seems energised

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

Ian P got the closest to the actual result of everyone who ventured a guess, I'd say!