Election Predictions

[Miestră Schivă, UrN-GC]

Well, of anyone who ventured a guess in public. Here's me in the FreeDems facebook a couple of days ago: as you can see, I was slightly pessimistic.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

That's pretty public, so seems like you should get the credit.

[King Txec]

As Secretary of State, I've notified the members of the Electoral Commission to begin their task of verifying the results.

In the coming days I will be beginning the process of the upcoming Seneschal Election, and opening a call for seats in the 57th Cosa.

Please remember these results are provisional and subject to change after certification.

Thank you,



Dr. Txec dal Nordselvă,
Secretár d'Estat

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

I don't remember all of my previous predictions, but this strikes me as a whiff. 179 seats.

The TNC got five more seats (although three fewer votes) than the LCC in the 55th, even though I expected the former's appeal to be narrower. Upon reflection, I can see why it wasn't; the LCC ran on "no more changes to the Monarchy," and the TNC ran on the same thing. I might have mistaken the TNC's more aggressive campaigning with "hardcore conservative" beliefs, but that's not what they were campaigning on. If anything, the fact that the TNC had a coherent line of attack against the current government, and had an actual team behind it, may have made them even more appealing to moderates than the LCC was.

The more curious thing is that the number of seats won by no-Monarchy-reform parties in total is up from the 55th, and way up from the 56th:
-55th: 73 (LCC)
-56th: 58 (B + DIEN + KLuP)
-57th: 96 (TNC + DIEN)

The TNC surpassed the performance of the LCC in the 55th (when there was no other conservative party), and DIEN still got 18 seats.

I am not sure why this happened. There have been no significant Monarchy reforms since the 55th which would have caused more people to stop wanting further reform.

[NRB]

Ian P got the closest to the actual result of everyone who ventured a guess, I'd say!

idk my guess seems pretty good in my humble opinion