58th Election Predictions & Commentary

[Breneir Tzaracomprada]

Now entering the back end of the 58th Cosa Election here in the Kingdom. Over the last several elections we have had some place to gather, prognosticate, and depressurize (?)

PERSONAL PREDICTION (Seats)
TNC 75
FreeDems 70
PdR 25
PT 15
Dien 15

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

I haven't looked at any of the votes yet, so this is my purely speculative prediction:

TNC 90
FreeDem 65
PdR 20
DIEN 15
PT 10

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

I have never won a prediction contest, ever, not once.  Nonetheless:

TNC 96
FreeDem 59
PdR 20
DIEN 15
PT 10

[Breneir Tzaracomprada]

I have never won a prediction contest, ever, not once.  Nonetheless:

TNC 96
FreeDem 59
PdR 20
DIEN 15
PT 10

I hope this is the winning prediction 🙏

[Breneir Tzaracomprada]

Some election trivia as of now (25 January):

-Current turnout: 55%
-Fiova has the highest turnout: 15
-Four provinces have double-digit turnout: Ataturk, Fiova, Benito (Garibaldi), and Maricopa
-Vuode has the lowest turnout at 6
-Pengopats has both the highest and lowest turnout for a Talossan territory

[Tric’hard Lenxheir]

Some election trivia as of now (25 January):

-Current turnout: 55%
-Fiova has the highest turnout: 15
-Four provinces have double-digit turnout: Ataturk, Fiova, Benito (Garibaldi), and Maricopa
-Vuode has the lowest turnout at 6
-Pengopats has both the highest and lowest turnout for a Talossan territory

I mean for what it's worth Vuode only has 10 registered voters so our turnout is 60%

[Breneir Tzaracomprada]

Some election trivia as of now (25 January):

-Current turnout: 55%
-Fiova has the highest turnout: 15
-Four provinces have double-digit turnout: Ataturk, Fiova, Benito (Garibaldi), and Maricopa
-Vuode has the lowest turnout at 6
-Pengopats has both the highest and lowest turnout for a Talossan territory

I mean for what it's worth Vuode only has 10 registered voters so our turnout is 60%

You are right, that actually is pretty good.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN-GC]

I would like to cast my vote proudly for the Talossan National Congress. 

It's the Attack of the Clones!

The public ballot is still noxious because it encourages this stuff, and if I were the TNC I would not encourage it because it makes them look like a cult.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

I think it's just people copying and pasting, making voting as easy as possible.  If you already have an account on Witt, posting a reply is the easiest way to vote right now.  It's also becoming a bit of a meme!

It should probably be a little easier to vote -- I wonder if it's possible to set up a link that automatically creates a prefilled template private message to send to a specific person?  That would allow more private voting with the same sort of ease.

[Marcel Eðo Pairescu Tafial, UrGP]

I wonder if it's possible to set up a link that automatically creates a prefilled template private message to send to a specific person?

The idea of prefilled ballots gives me very bad East Germany vibes.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

I wonder if it's possible to set up a link that automatically creates a prefilled template private message to send to a specific person?

The idea of prefilled ballots gives me very bad East Germany vibes.

Prefilled by the SoS with the ballot, my dude.  We already do that with email.

This link automatically sets up a PM to Txec, for example.  If we could add a subject line "My Ballot" and some prefilled text with the voting choices in the body of the PM, that would be a great new option for people to use, and it would be just as easy as a reply to the voting thread.  But I don't know if that's possible.

EDIT:It looks like it might be possible, but it might require specific configuration of a special PM template? I don't think ordinarily there's a variable for subject or body in PMs, unfortunately. Different than the mailto protocol.

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

Anyone want to hop in the Discord voice chat in a bit for an election night countdown?

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

Anyone want to hop in the Discord voice chat in a bit for an election night countdown?

I would love to, but I am taking my daughter to go watch some stars and a comet tonight, weather permitting.  I hope others can join, though!  I'll be on Discord on and off via text, at least.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

@Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB I'm going to be out tonight, PM me the results early.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

Wow, that was fast. Thanks, Txec!

(I'm joking, of course!)

[King Txec]

@Sir Txec dal Nordselvă, UrB I'm going to be out tonight, PM me the results early.

Funny :-)

Keep in mind it may take a few minutes past the deadline for me to confirm I've not received any last minute votes, but rest assured the results will be available as quickly as possible.

[King Txec]

We just made it to 100 votes! Almost 73% turnout.

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

Alright, time to release my exit poll. Note that it is liable to change if additional people vote.

TNC - 94
FreeDem - 73
DIEN - 15
PdR - 11
PT - 7

The TNC has been putting a lot of effort into recruiting new citizens, a strategy that appears to be working well for them. Combining that with the old RUMP faithful leads to a large block of votes, but probably not quite enough for a majority on their own.

The Free Democrats have done a respectable job of turning out their base. Also, they face a reduced threat from their left; the Peculiarist contingent is not running on the national level and endorsed the FreeDems instead, and the PdR have not been vigorously campaigning. I therefore predict a modest increase in their raw vote total, although a slight decrease in their number of seats, since we have 10 more voters in this election compared to last.

Despite (or perhaps because of) the TNC's vigorous campaigning, I think Dien is still appealing to some voters (I am more confident about this after seeing Sir Cresti's public vote for him). I think he has a similar performance to last time.

The PdR has not been campaigning much, but there is always a desire among some part of the electorate for parties like them. I am predicting a pretty big decrease (they got 25 seats in the last election), but if they significantly exceed my expectations, it will likely be at the expense of the FreeDems.

A meme party, in my recollection, has never done better than a few votes, so seven seats would be a solid performance for the PT.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN-GC]

Vive l'altérnance

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

TNC - 94
FreeDem - 73
DIEN - 15
PdR - 11
PT - 7

This is the worst exit poll since the New York Times gave Hillary Clinton a 99% chance of winning.