2023 Talossan Cycling Association Tour - Leg 1: Ortona -> Roma

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 16 Sabbio Chiese -> Monte Bondone

Well, the final week is on, and so is the fight for the maglia rosa. Today's stage went up Lake Garda and around no fewer than four summits south of Trento, finishing on a category 1 climb on Monte Bondone. Will it be a day for GC contenders, or will the breakaway have a chance at a long range stage win?

As it turned out, no luck for the breakaway, which featured Healy (BDC), Paret-Peintre (BDC) and Haig (ATX/PTM/MCB). They weren't really allowed to stray that far by a combined Groupama-FDJ and Jumbo-Visma team effort, and were easily reeled in before the final climb.
The climb to Monte Bondone was - finally - pure hand-to-hand combat between the three leading GC contenders, Roglic (VFL/CFA), Thomas (GNH/KIN) and Almeida (CHX/GNH/VFL/BDC/DED).

Initially it seemed like Almeida was in a really strong position, making effective use of his teammates McNulty (VFL/MCB/KIN) and Vine (ATX/VFL/PTM/MCB/KIN) to drop many of the outside contenders such as maglia rosa Armirail (PTM/MCB), Caruso (DED), Kämna (GHS/BDC/VFL) and Carthy (PTM/DED).
After that, though, it was Roglic who was the only one who still had a teammate to help him, Kuss (CHX/GHS/CFA), and might therefore be better placed to outlast them all - not to mention, he was generally tipped to be the best climber of the three.
It was not to be, though: after the last breakaway rider finished pulling for teammate Eddie Dunbar, the last other outside GC contender to hang in, Almeida decisively attacked and Thomas was the one still fresh enough to keep up with him until the end, although losing the stage victory to the Portuguese rider. Roglic got dropped and it was only thanks to Kuss that he did not end up losing more time; he still managed to finish third, narrowly defeating Dunbar.

It is not Almeida, however, who will wear pink tomorrow: Thomas regains maglia rosa by virtue of a 18" lead in the GC, with Roglic third, 29" behind the Welshman. Armirail loses the jersey (no realistic chance of keeping it anyway) and drops to P7.

Also scoring stage points, Kuss (P5), Caruso (P7), Arensman (MCB, P10), Kämna (P11), Carthy (P12), Buitrago (GNH, P13), Pinot (BDC/CHX/CFA, P16), Haig (P17) and Armirail (P19). Many riders, so thankfully a nice high scoring stage today. Gagnheirs, the only team holding both Almeida and Thomas, are on top today by just one point over Velociposse.

Unfortunately, Pavel Sivakov abandoned mid-stage, leaving Averatxeirs down to four active riders.


Standings after Stage 16:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu de Cézembre Pterodactyls (BDC)	5894	+432
2nd	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5648	+482
3rd	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	4638	+560
4th	(=)	Maritiimi-Maxhestic Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	4591	+561
5th	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4296	+409
6th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	4177	+441
7th	(+2)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	3872	+278
8th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3864	+202
9th	(-2)	Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3822	+108
10th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschă (CFA)	3699	+360
11th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3409	+233

Tomorrow's stage can't even be defined as pancake flat, as it's actually downhill. (Though it's still obviously important because it's the first of four stages taking place in my two home regions.)

Watch for the penultimate bunch sprint of this edition, and one of Cyclohexane's last chances to meaningfully contest Banqeu de Cézembre's leadership, pending the flood of end-of-Giro points that will likely favour the latter unless, say, Kämna were to drop out or lose substantial time.

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

The level of emotion I feel rooting for a team I picked completely randomly is embarrassing to admit

[Glüc]

Cyclohexane has a second sprinter now!

That makes them the clear favourites to win TCAT at this point...

[Glüc]

Stage 17 Pergine Valsulgana -> Caorle

As expected most of today's stage was fairly uneventful. The action was all in the sprint to the finish. As expected, Milan (CHX) did well, being the first TCAT rider across the line. Gaviria (GHS) came in fifth. The real surprise however came in the form of Kirsch (CHX) who replaced Pedersen as the second sprinter for Cyclohexane and managed to score a top 10 position. Ackermann (ATX/GNH/VFL) and Cavendish (DED/KIN) disappointed.

The result is a big win for Cyclohexane. They are now only 10 points behind BdC, with the stage in Rome still to come! GHST did well due to Gaviria, but not enough to climb from the last spot. Velociposse and Els Gagnheirs also posted decent results, but again not good enough to meet their targets if they want to stay in the race for first place. The rest of the teams barely competed at all.



Standings after Stage 17:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu de Cézembre Pterodactyls (BDC)	5986	+92
2nd	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5976	+328
3rd	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	4803	+165
4th	(=)	Maritiimi-Maxhestic Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	4746	+155
5th	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4367	+71
6th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	4258	+81
7th	(=)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	3938	+66
8th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	3929	+65
9th	(=)	Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3911	+89
10th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschă (CFA)	3747	+48
11th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3574	+165

Tomorrow we go back north through Veneto towards the mountains. (Also the stage Lüc was supposed to do live commentary on.) Not quite as many vertical meters as Tuesday or Friday, but still a pretty serious mountain stage with 5 summits and an uphill finish, which could be good for the gc favourites, or maybe a break. Either way only a pretty strong climber can win tomorrow.

[Glüc]

Expected extra final classification points at current standings:


Gagnheirs - 1520
Velociposse - 1420
BdC - 1225
Dead Last - 1215
Port Maxhestic - 1080
Cyclohexane - 1020
Kinetic - 810
Fiescha - 780
Copacabana Boys - 630
GHST - 420
Averatxeirs - 260

[Glüc]

Analysis

* BdC still has an edge in the classifications due to Kämna, but Cyclohexane will score big points on the final stage where they now have two sprinters competing while BdC has zero. The classification gap is also likely to shrink if Kuss gains a couple spots or Paret-Peintre loses a few, both of which seem likely. As a result Cyclohexane is now again the favourite to win, although it is very close and will likely come down to the final stage! A lot will depend on the performance of Kämna vs Kuss in the mountains. Advantage CHX, but this isn't over yet.

*Surprisingly Thomas outperformed Roglic on tuesday, which puts Els Gagnheirs in a better position for the podium than Velociposse. The gap with the leading pair increasingly looks like it's too big to overcome. Then again, there are three stages coming up where both Roglic and Thomas will score big points and both teams are also still contesting the sprints with Ackermann, so the final result will likely be closer than the current standing.

*As expected Armirail dropped back in the general classification on tuesday and this also affected Port Maxhestics chances of reaching the podium. Instead they are in a fight to stay in fifth place, where Dead Last may have the edge due to the strong performance of Caruso so far.

*Kinetic Racing are currently heading for 7th place, but are dependent on the performance of Thomas. Positive projections for Fiescha so far haven't really played out, but they could still make some sort of comeback if Roglic does the same. The Copacabana Boys are also still in the mix for 7th, especially since Arensman, Affini and Vine could all do well in the final mountain stages and ITT.

*GHST and Els Averatxeirs are the teams hit hardest by the various dropouts. GHST had a bit of a headstart in the race for the bottom, but Els Averatxeirs barely have anyone left so if anyone could challenge GHST for the lantern rouge, it's them

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 18 Oderzo -> Val di Zoldo (Rifugio Palafavera)

The trio of stages that will decide Giro has begun! Today's stage made its way from Oderzo, historic town in the south of the province of Treviso, to the Zoldo valley in the Bellunese Dolomites.

All of the first part of the stage featured numerous attempts at a breakaway, which didn't succeed because of the peloton keeping an insane pace (resulting in only about 30 riders staying in front, so huge numbers were dropped early on never to be seen again). Only in the long climb towards the first summit, passo della Crosetta, did Pinot (CHX/BDC/CFA), Paret-Peintre (BDC) and three more non-TCAT riders (Zana, Gee and Frigo) manage to pull away. Some other attempts at joining the breakaway were thwarted again by the Ineos-led peloton, which also attempted to pull Roglic (VFL/CFA) away from his teammates. Later, Warren Barguil (DED) also managed to join the breakaway.

Most of the central part of the stage was less eventful, as the riders made their way down Cansiglio plateau and up the Piave valley. Forcella Cibiana, the second serious climb of the day, was where the action picked up again, as the top teams in the peloton started shedding their spent team members, and Frigo and Gee were dropped from the lead.

It was the fourth climb, an extremely tough series of steep ramps towards Coi, which singled out today's top two finishers, Zana and Pinot - the other four breakaway riders being dropped sooner or later. Behind that, it was Roglic who attempted revenge for Tuesday's time deficit by attacking with teammate Kuss (CHX/GHS/CFA). But while maglia rosa Geraint Thomas (GNH/KIN) handily managed to keep up despite his remaining teammate Arensman (MCB) struggling, it was Joao Almeida's (CHX/GNH/VFL/BDC/DED) turn to get dropped and lose time from the other two GC contenders.

Ultimately, Zana pipped Pinot to the line after a short sprint up the fifth and final summit; Barguil completed the daily podium. Roglic and Thomas arrived together, while Almeida lost a further 21" and swaps places with Roglic in the general classification. Pinot ended up winning all of the summits except the finish, and so handily retakes the lead of the KOM classification (maglia azzurra) from Ben Healy (BDC).

Banqeu de Cézembre, Fieschă and Cyclohexane cash in from that Pinot P2 to finish in front of everyone else today, BdC ultimately winning out because of Paret-Peintre's P5 and Kämna's P14. Both Fieschă and Cyclohexane hold Kuss, P11, but it's Roglic's better result compared to Almeida that boosts Fieschă to second (and an impressive gain of three places overall). A strong result from Caruso and especially Barguil gets Dead Last a fourth place, and a good shot at locking in fifth place in the overall standings.

Standings after Stage 18:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu de Cézembre Pterodactyls (BDC)	6569	+583
2nd	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	6425	+449
3rd	(=)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	5075	+272
4th	(=)	Maritiimi-Maxhestic Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	4978	+232
5th	(+1)	Dead Last (DED)	4630	+372
6th	(-1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4497	+130
7th	(+3)	Cézembre Fieschă (CFA)	4213	+466
8th	(-1)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	4076	+138
9th	(-1)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	4032	+103
10th	(-1)	Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	3932	+21
11th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3692	+118

Inconclusive but exciting day, GC-wise. All to play for tomorrow, in this Giro's queen stage, Longarone - Tre Cime di Lavaredo. If only a strong climber could win today, then only the strongest can win tomorrow. Tune in if you can, you don't want to miss it.

[Glüc]

BdC ultimately winning out because of Paret-Peintre's P5

Yes!, I was so happy APP made it this time, after tuesdays break failed.

Does this give BdC the edge again? Probably, but this is coming down to the wire. Every stage counts now...

I also like how close the gc still is because that means today and tomorrow will be extra exciting

[Glüc]

Carthy did not start today due to stomach issues. Bad news for Port Maxhestic and Dead Last.

[Glüc]

Buitrago wins and Thomas keeps his lead! Should be a massive score for Els Gagnheirs

_{(Also I now think Cyclohexane is the favourite again)}

[Glüc]

Actually, it's all time TCAT stage score record for Els Gagnheirs today. 817 points. Holy macaroni

[Glüc]

Stage 19 Longarone -> Tre Cime di Lavaredo

Today was the queen stage towards the Tre Cime di Lavaredo/Drei Zinnen peaks on the border of Veneto and Südtirol. The breakaway consisted of a large group including Buitrago (GNH) and Cort (ATX/GNH/VFL/PTM/CFA/DED) and was given a lot of time by the group of favourites, which waited long to increase the pace. On the final climb it was Buitrago who was the fastest, with Cort coming in third.

Behind them once the favourites started going it didn't take long for most riders to get dropped and once they got to the finish there were only Thomasv (GNH/KIN) and Roglic (VFL/CFA) left. Thomas never got into trouble and for a while it even seemed he was going to gain time on Roglic, but Roglic recovered and outsprinted Thomas to get 4th place, with Thomas ending 5th. Almeida (CHX/GNH/VFL/BDC/DED) did not manage to keep up and lost 20 seconds on the pair, which puts him almost a minute behind Thomas with only the Time trial to go. Caruso (DED), Arensman (MCB), Pinot (CHX/CFA/BDC) also got a good result. Kuss finished 12th a bit later. Kämna (VFL/GHS/BDC) did not have a great day and lost two spots in GC

The results by Buitrago, Cort, Thomas, and Almeida resulted in a monsterscore for Els Gagnheirs, scoring a TCAT record and overtaking the Velociposse in the race for third. Behind Velociposse, Cézembre Fieschă also had a strong and may now be well positioned to overtake Port Maxhestic in the final standing.

Standings after Stage 19:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu de Cézembre Pterodactyls (BDC)	6844	+275
2nd	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	6742	+317
3rd	(+1)	Maritiimi-Maxhestic Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	5795	+817
4th	(-1)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	5644	+569
5th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	5118	+488
6th	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4867	+370
7th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschă (CFA)	4758	+545
8th	(=)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	4264	+188
9th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	4173	+141
10th	(=)	Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	4167	+235
11th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3781	+89

Tomorrow the winner of the general classification will be decided. It's an individual time trial, but unlikely the last two, this one is uphill. Starting in Tarvisio, in the eastern tip of Lüc's other home region of Friuli Venezia Giulia, it's a short course of only 18,6 km. However in that short distance the riders will ascend more than 1000 meters, with steep sections up to 22% and the riders will be on their own with no teams or strategy to hide behind. Thomas will need to defend 26 seconds on Roglic and 59 seconds on Almeida to win and enter Rome wearing the maglia rosa.

_{Final 7,5 kms of tomorrows ITT, from giroditalia.it}
Oh, and we will be organising a watchalong starting 8:30 am TST (CDT) (15:30 CEST). Don't miss it.

[Glüc]

Expected extra final classification points at current standings:


Gagnheirs - 1465
Velociposse - 1335
BdC - 1225
Dead Last - 970
Port Maxhestic - 675
Cyclohexane - 1115
Kinetic - 825
Fiescha - 1100
Copacabana Boys - 530
GHST - 380
Averatxeirs - 250

Big gain by Fiescha (Kuss, Roglic) and big drops by Port Maxhestic (Carty, Armirail) and Dead Last (Carthy) compared to last time. Cyclohexane (Kuss, Pinot) also shriking gaining.

Adding these to the current standings gives:

BdC - 8069
Cyclohexane - 7857
Gagnheirs - 7260
Velociposse - 6979
Dead Last - 6088
Fiescha - 5858
Port Maxhestic - 5542
Kinetic - 5089
Copacabana Boys - 4805
Averatxeirs - 4417
GHST - 4161

[Glüc]

Analysis:

Banqeu de Cézembre v Cyclohexane
BdC holds roughly a 200 pt lead, but Cyclohexane will likely gain more than 200 in the final sprint due to Milan and Kirsch and be the third Benitan team to win an edition. BdC needs to extend their lead today, but while they have many options to score, Chx's Kuss may outperform all of them while APP could lose valuable GC spots.

Riders to watch today: Kuss (CHX), Kämna (BDC), Healy (BDC), Barta (BDC), A. Paret-Peintre (BDC)

Els Gagnheirs v Velociposse
The monsterscore by the M-M team yesterday and the lead by Thomas in the GC puts them in the best position to reach the podium. The fight for third place effectively mirrors the race for the Maglia Rosa as the Florencians will need Roglic to win overall to have a chance. This will likely be decided today as neither team will have an edge in the Rome stage.

Riders to watch today: Thomas (GNH), Roglic (VFL), Vine (VFL), Kämna (VFL), Bouwman (GNH), McNulty (VFL), Buitrago (GNH)

Dead Last v Cézembre Fieschâ
The Cézembreans had a massive comeback in the last couple of days and are looking to go even further. The loss of Carthy was a big loss for the incorrectly named Dead Last. However, the Vuodeans still have Cavendish on the final day and hold a considerable lead as well so are clear favourites to hold on to fifth place. Then again, Fiescha were only 10th a couple days ago, so perhaps they will score another upset.

Riders to watch today: Roglic (CFA), Almeida (DED), Caruso (DED), Kuss (CFA), Dennis (CFA), Pinot (CFA), Jungels (CFA), Barguil (DED), Affini (DED)

Port Maxhestic v Cézembre Fieschâ
A difficult couple of days for Port Maxhestic, with Armirail losing further ground and then Carthy dropping out. They are still ahead of Fiescha in the current standings, but will need to boost their standings in the classifications to hold on to that. Armirail did very well in the flat time trials of course, so perhaps he could pull off one final stunt for Port Maxhestic.

Riders to watch today: Roglic (CFA), Almeida (PTM), Vine (PTM), Kuss (CFA), Haig (PTM), Dennis (CFA), Pinot (CFA), Armirail (PTM), Jungels (CFA)

Kinetic Racing v Copacabana Boys
Neither team has really delivered in the last few stages. The Fiovans are likely to secure the 8th spot based on their current lead and the Maricopans not having a sprinter for the final stage (and of course, Kinetic having the actual likely winner of giro in their team). The best hope the Cabana boys have for an upset is Arensman, who has proven to be at his best during the final week and should have a strong time trial.

Riders to watch today: Thomas (KIN), Arensman (MCB), Haig (MCB), Bouwman (KIN), Armirail (MCB)

Els Averatxeirs v Gordon Hiatus Support Team
The effort from Cort yesterday probably secured the red lantern will go to GHST, the winners of the previous edition. GHST still has Gaviria for the final stage, but the third M-M team has Ackermann, so GHST will need a lot of luck to still overtake them.

Riders to watch today:
Vine (ATX), Kuss (GHS), Kämna (GHS), Haig (ATX)

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 20 Tarvisio -> Monte Lussari (ITT)

The three-day that was to decide Giro is over, and what a way to finish it. A climbing time trial up Monte Lussari, the first half on a very nice and relatively flat cycle path, the second up the steepest gradients we've seen in this edition (sustained averages of 15%, and up to 22%!). So narrow and steep, in fact, that they've had to bring support motorbikes instead of cars, and to perform a mid-stage bike change from a time trial bike to a regular road bike with climbing gearing. (Some riders even chose to change helmets!)

Geraint Thomas (GNH/KIN) entered the stage with a 26" lead over Primoz Roglic (VFL/CFA). Joao Almeida (CHX/GNH/VFL/BDC/DED) stood as the classic 1% outsider at 59". Logically enough, these were expected to be the top contenders for the daily win as well, with Roglic perhaps having an edge over Thomas as arguably both the better time trialist and (marginally) better climber. Could Roglic not crack under pressure and deliver the sort of performance that's expected of him? Could Thomas, even if losing today, keep the margin under those crucial 26 seconds he needs to hold the GC lead?

As it turns out, yes, Roglic did deliver, and no, Thomas's resistance was futile. Roglic even had a brief mechanical problem, in which he rode over a covered drainage channel which made his bike go out of gear; despite losing 19 seconds in that incident, he still won the day by 40" over Thomas and 42" over Almeida, taking the lead of the GC by 14 seconds. Since tomorrow is guaranteed to end in a bunch sprint, that effectively means there's no net time gains to be conceivably won anymore, and Primoz Roglic is the winner of the 2023 Giro d'Italia.

Velociposse cashes in on the Roglic win and retakes third from Gagnheirs; Cyclohexane gets into striking range of Banqeu de Cézembre thanks to Sepp Kuss, and sets up a decisive head to head in the final stage - which they enter with the definite advantage of having at least one sprinter (Milan) and another reserve sprinter which might do well again (Kirsch), while BdC has none.

Standings after Stage 20:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banqeu de Cézembre Pterodactyls (BDC)	7253	+409
2nd	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	7201	+459
3rd	(+1)	Velociposse Florencia (VFL)	6280	+636
4th	(-1)	Maritiimi-Maxhestic Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	6217	+422
5th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	5462	+344
6th	(+1)	Cézembre Fieschă (CFA)	5274	+516
7th	(-1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	5128	+261
8th	(=)	Kinetic Racing (KIN)	4629	+365
9th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	4442	+269
10th	(=)	Els Averatxeirs (ATX)	4235	+68
11th	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	3940	+159

Tomorrow Giro has its grand finale in Rome, with what is pretty much a show stage for the riders, but a very important stage for us still, as all teams who have a sprinter left have a chance at a last hurrah before the end-of-Giro points are given out: CHX with Milan and maybe Kirsch, the Ackermann teams (ATX, GNH and VFL), the Cavendish teams (DED and KIN), and GHS with Gaviria.