2023 Talossan Cycling Association Tour - Leg 3: Barcelona -> Madrid

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

[Sir Lüc]

Sorry for no update yesterday, I'll do a quick one now and a fuller one for today's stage later.

Stage 14 Sauveterre-de-Béarn -> Larra-Belagua

Looks like Remco Evenepoel is back on the menu -- no longer for the GC, but for race wins and the KOM jersey. He and Romain Bardet led for most of the day, well in front of the GC group, but the Frenchman got dropped on the final climb and Evenepoel was left alone to take a second stage win, and the KOM leader's jersey. The Belgian took back over eight minutes, but it was hardly enough to bring him back into contention for the red jersey, the wide gap simply a result of him no longer being seen as a threat by Kuss and Jumbo-Visma.

Lots of shuffling around in the standings, with MCB regaining the top spot, PTM finally jumping GHS after a long pursuit (and in the process BDC as well), and Fieschă handing the lanterne rouge back to Gagnheirs.

Standings after stage 14:
                             

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(+1)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	4821	+704
2nd	(-1)	Dead Last (DED)	4604	+419
3rd	(+2)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4462	+636
4th	(-1)	Banque da Cézembre Paranoid Knights (BDC)	4383	+386
5th	(-1)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4351	+521
6th	(+2)	Els Cantzelerïă Aþletici (SOS)	4160	+504
7th	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	3906	+226
8th	(+1)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	3883	+445
9th	(-3)	Cjovani Valcurias (VAL)	3788	+97
10th	(+1)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	3776	+639
11th	(-1)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	3631	+216

[Sir Lüc]

Stage 15 Pamplona -> Lekunberri

Week 2 ends with a stage fit for a breakaway - too easy for the GC riders, too hard for the sprinters. The breakaway comprised ten riders, among which were Remco Evenepoel (MCB/DED/PTM/GHS), Santiago Buitrago (GHS/CHX) and Einer Augusto Rubio (GNH).

However, the three-man attack that made it to the line only included Buitrago, who finished third, while a charging comeback by the rest of the breakaway came a few seconds short. Evenepoel took fourth and Rubio sixth. Meanwhile, the sprint among the peloton, about three minutes later, was won by Fieschă's David Gonzalez, who unexpectedly pipped Kaden Groves (MCB/VAL) and also Matevž Govekar (GHS).

No consequences of note in the GC, with all major contenders in the main peloton and Evenepoel's three minute gain still leaving him 15th and 16 minutes behind Sepp Kuss.

Gordon Hiatus Support Team takes the stage win today, thanks to Buitrago, Evenepoel and Govekar, and moves up to second place. Also gaining in the standings is Fieschă, though only eighth today. A relatively distant second place for Cyclohexane (also holding Buitrago), narrowly heading PTM and MCB.

Standings after stage 15:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	5079	+258
2nd	(+3)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4836	+485
3rd	(-1)	Dead Last (DED)	4819	+215
4th	(-1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4729	+267
5th	(-1)	Banque da Cézembre Paranoid Knights (BDC)	4618	+235
6th	(=)	Els Cantzelerïă Aþletici (SOS)	4250	+90
7th	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	4197	+291
8th	(=)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	3990	+107
9th	(+1)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	3932	+156
10th	(-1)	Cjovani Valcurias (VAL)	3864	+76
11th	(=)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	3853	+222

TCAT 2023's final rest day tomorrow, so strap in for analysis and side classifications!

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

TCAT 2023's final rest day tomorrow, so strap in for analysis and side classifications!

Maricopa will be there at the top for everyone to gaze upon our glory!





I've seen this gif several times, and never new what it was from until I looked it up... Might be a competitor for the new Cabana Boys theme song

[Sir Lüc]

So: while the week 1 analysis was mostly checking in on how everyone's picks looked like, as we have only six stages left I'll be finally looking at what's left on the table for the teams to fight for.

End of tour points (assuming the current classifications remain frozen to the end)

These are awarded to the top 30 riders in the final general classification (600 to the winner); the top 10 riders in the final points and KOM classifications (120 to the winner); and to all non-retired riders in the top 5 teams in the teams' classification (50 to the winning team).

Unsurprisingly, because of the Kuss-Roglic-Vingegaard trio heading the GC, Banqeu de Cézembre is on track to bring home a whopping 2080 end of tour points. Also scoring very well, and receiving a much needed boost are els Gagnheirs, the other team to field three riders in the top 5 (Roglic, Vingegaard and Mas).

Who's not faring particularly well are current high flyers Maricopa Cabana Boys and Dead Last - both Evenepoel teams whose only alternative is Mas. Granted, as things stand MCB is slated to do better than everyone else in  the end of tour points for both the points classification and KOM classification, thanks to Evenepoel, Bardet and Groves, but those points are simply too few to make a real dent.

Team	BDC	GNH	GHS	CHX	PTM	CJO	CFA	SOS	MCB	DED	VAL
GC EOT	1545	1280	1060	1120	950	990	935	895	435	530	410
PC+KOM+TC EOT	535	245	460	275	395	305	255	270	410	280	165
Total EOT	2080	1525	1520	1395	1345	1295	1190	1165	845	810	575

Daily classification points (assuming the current classifications remain frozen to the end)

These are the points given out at the end of each stage to the top 20 riders in the GC, the top 6 riders in the PC and KOM, the assist points given to active teammates of the top 3 riders in the GC, and the assist points given to all active riders of the top 3 teams in the teams's classification.

To get these figures, I'm simply assuming the daily classification points are paid out to the riders as they stand in their current positions, for each of the remaining 6 stages (reasonable enough to get a broad picture)

Unsurprisingly, since we're looking at the same classifications and applying different points scales, the situation is basically the same as the end of tour points. The gap between BDC and the rest is even wider because of the tighter points scales, and especially the fact that 6 Jumbo-Visma riders getting 14 GC assist points in each of the 6 remaining stages (due to the Kuss-Roglic-Vingegaard GC lead) amounts to a whopping and unmatchable 504 daily GC assist points - the closest are Cjovani and Gagnheirs both at just 132.

Team	BDC	GNH	GHS	CHX	PTM	CJO	CFA	SOS	MCB	DED	VAL
GC Daily	468	408	378	360	318	294	336	300	132	162	120
Other Daily	894	264	276	258	300	300	204	192	216	144	96
Total Daily	1326	672	654	618	618	594	540	492	348	306	216

Stage points

This assumes teams will keep scoring on average the same amount of "stage result"-based points at the end of each remaining stage. These are stage points "proper", summit points, intermediate sprint points and breakaway points. I did make sure retired riders would not be accounted for, but didn't particularly look at the different types of stages. This also leaves out assist points for the stage top 3, which I had no (quick) way to automatically scrape from Velogames.

Because at the end of each day daily classification points are also awarded, this is not simply an average of the points each team was awarded after each stage: just the four points scales listed above. Nonetheless, the standings for this projection do look quite similar to the current overall standings: MCB in first, DED in second, BDC way behind because of assist points not counting here.

Team	MCB	DED	GHS	PTM	SOS	VAL	CJO	CFA	CHX	GNH	BDC
Avg stg pts/stage	276	239	232	226	203	202	201	193	190	180	162
x 6 rem stgs	1656	1434	1392	1356	1218	1212	1206	1158	1140	1080	972

[Sir Lüc]

Final projection

(Simply the current points, plus each of the previous three projections: EOT, daily and stage.)

Pos	±	Team	Pts Now	Proj	Pts Final
1st	(+5)	Banqeu da Cézembre Paranoid Knights (BDC)	4618	+4414	9032
2nd	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4836	+3566	8402
3th	(+1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4729	+3319	8048
4th	(-3)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	5079	+2849	7928
5th	(-2)	Dead Last (DED)	4819	+2550	7369
6th	(+1)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	4197	+3153	7350
7th	(+4)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	3853	+3277	7130
8th	(-2)	Els Cantzelerïă Aþletici (SOS)	4250	+2875	7125
9th	(-1)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	3990	+3095	7085
10th	(-1)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	3932	+2888	6280
11th	(-1)	Cjovani Valcurias (VAL)	3864	+2003	5867

Is the projection gospel? Of course not, the standings will change, the stage results (and therefore the stage points) will not stick to the average. The actual number of predicted points is not important. What's important is the ballpark: bar any final week surprises, who are the teams you are actually competing with?

Since it takes into account the end of tour points, and it gives you an idea of how many daily and stage points are actually on offer for you, look at this table if you actually want to know where you're on target to finish, and who (and by how much) you should outperform to do better.


TLDR: Glüc will likely win, but everything can happen.

[Glüc]

Stage 17 Ribadesella/Ribeseya -> Altu de L'Angliru

Today was another tough mountain stage, finishing on the Angliru, one of the most challenging climbs of any grand tour with an average gradient of over 10% and sections of 24%.

Evenepoel (MCB/DED/PTM/GHS) made the stage interesting, attacking several times and increasing his lead in the KOM classification along the way. However, in the end it was the trio from BdC that decided the stage. Roglic (SOS/GHS/CJO/GNH/BDC) won the stage, followed by Vingegaard (CHX/CJO/GNH/CFA/BDC). Kuss (CHX/BDC) came in third, losing time on his teammates but barely keeping the lead in GC and the red jersey.

Behind the trio, Almeida (SOS/GHS/CFA), Uijtdebroeks (GHS), Buitrago (GHS/CHX), Ayuso (PTM/VAL) and Mas (MCB/DED/PTM/GNH) all finished in the top 10.

It was another ridiculous score for Banqeu da Cézembre, who take over the lead in GC. GHST also did well, climbing to place 2. Sadly, the Cabana boys had a bad day, falling off the podium, with the third spot being taken by Port Maxhestic.

Standings after stage 17:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(+1)	Banque da Cézembre Paranoid Knights (BDC)	6231	+961
2nd	(+2)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	5901	+736
3rd	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	5512	+345
4th	(-3)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	5510	+223
5th	(+1)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5254	+604
6th	(-1)	Dead Last (DED)	5153	+171
7th	(=)	Els Cantzelerïă Aþletici (SOS)	5107	+534
8th	(+2)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	5056	+664
9th	(-1)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	5032	+626
10th	(-1)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	4894	+501
11th	(=)	Cjovani Valcurias (VAL)	4166	+104

Tomorrow we stay in Asturias for another mountain stage, though plausibly one that could be won by a breakaway.

[Tric'hard Lenxheir]

The big question is...Can Dead Last make it all the way to the bottom of the standings???

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

At this point, I think GNH has a better chance of that achievement.  Even with today's good luck.

[Glüc]

Standings after stage 18:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banque da Cézembre Paranoid Knights (BDC)	6620	+389
2nd	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	6446	+545
3rd	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	6085	+573
4th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	5970	+460
5th	(+1)	Dead Last (DED)	5688	+535
6th	(-1)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5495	+241
7th	(+1)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	5464	+408
8th	(-1)	Els Cantzelerïă Aþletici (SOS)	5264	+157
9th	(=)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	5249	+217
10th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	5044	+150
11th	(=)	Cjovani Valcurias (VAL)	4304	+138

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

[Glüc]

Standings after stage 19:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Banque da Cézembre Paranoid Knights (BDC)	6856	+236
2nd	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	6735	+289
3rd	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	6343	+258
4th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	6328	+358
5th	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	5919	+231
6th	(+1)	Els Gagnheirs (GNH)	5805	+341
7th	(-1)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5632	+137
8th	(+1)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	5383	+134
9th	(-1)	Els Cantzelerïă Aþletici (SOS)	5351	+87
10th	(=)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	5249	+205
11th	(=)	Cjovani Valcurias (VAL)	4631	+327

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

Ok, ok... might still be in this thing.

[Glüc]

The peloton has arrived at the finish in Madrid. Apologies for the limited updates in the final days. Full results and some overall recap still to come, but it might take a while before everything is posted.

This was the final leg of the season. After the results have been revealed it feels like a good time for the peloton to take a break. TCAT will return in may next year for a new season!

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

Good hustle everyone!