The Ranked Choice Constitutional Referendum Bill

[Miestră Schivă, UrN]

BE IT ENACTED by the King, Cosă and Senäts of Talossa in Ziu assembled as followed, under the authority of Organic Law VII.13:

1. During the same month as the 3rd Clark of the 55th Cosa, the Chancery shall submit the following referendum question to the people:

What is your preference for Talossa's constitutional future?

2. This referendum shall be conducted as a Ranked Choice vote between the following four options, which shall appear on the ballot in a randomized order:

- the King of Talossa shall continue to have the political powers granted by the current Organic Law.
- the King of Talossa shall have no political powers except in cases of emergency or constitutional crisis.
- the king of Talossa shall share power with a periodically elected co-prince.
- the King of Talossa shall be replaced by an elected head of state.

3. The votes for this referendum shall be counted as follows:

   3.1. At the conclusion of the election, each option is assigned all ballots which express it as first preference. The option with the fewest ballots assigned to it is eliminated. Each ballot cast for the eliminated option is reassigned to the next expressed preference on the ballot.

    3.2 Once the ballots are reassigned, the option with the fewest ballots assigned to it is eliminated and the ballots cast for it reassigned as above. This process is repeated until one option wins by having a majority of non-abstention ballots assigned to it.

    3.3. If, after any iteration, there are two or more options with the fewest ballots assigned to them, the option with the fewest first preferences assigned to it shall be eliminated. If these options all have the same number of first preferences assigned to them, the option with the fewest second preferences assigned to it shall be eliminated, and so forth.

        3.3.1 If no such distinction can be made between these options because all have the same number of votes on every level of preference, the remaining iterations shall be conducted under multiple scenarios. Each scenario shall eliminate one of the tied options.

            3.3.1.1 If the different scenarios described above result in the same winner of the election overall, the winning option shall be declared successful.

            3.3.1.2 If the different scenarios described above result in different winners of the election overall, the result will be considered a tie between the two or three leading options.

    3.4. If any ballot assigned to an eliminated option does not express a next preference, the ballot is treated in the same way as an abstention.

    3.5 A option may not be assigned ballots after it has been eliminated. A ballot that would otherwise be reassigned to an eliminated option is instead assigned to the highest-ranked option that has not been eliminated, or treated as an abstention as above.

FURTHERMORE,

4. If an option involving a change in the Organic Law wins this referendum, the Government shall introduce an Organic Law amendment to that effect within the lifetime of the 55th Cosă.

(counting rules cut and pasted mutatis mutandis from El Lexhatx B.14)

[esbornatfiglheu]

In the case of the poll going to the King keeping his current powers, does that really need to go to a referendum?  It's essentially asking "Should we keep what we currently have?"  And what would it mean if that referendum were to be defeated?! 

And, pursuant to that, I guess... what's to stop the Govt. from simply doing that anyway?

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

There was a special midterm referendum on the monarchy just a few years ago, with 71% of respondents saying they wanted to keep the monarchy and 60% saying they didn't want it to be a figurehead.  I guess this question will be asked over and over in different ways until it produces the answer that is desired.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN]

In the case of the poll going to the King keeping his current powers, does that really need to go to a referendum?

Of course not.

If an option involving a change in the Organic Law wins this referendum,

[Miestră Schivă, UrN]

There was a special midterm referendum on the monarchy just a few years ago, with 71% of respondents saying they wanted to keep the monarchy and 60% saying they didn't want it to be a figurehead.  I guess this question will be asked over and over in different ways until it produces the answer that is desired.

Of course, that's precisely our strategy; eventually the people will vote for a New Republic just to shut us up.

All silliness aside, the referendum of July 2017 was before the Proclamation Crisis and the various shenanigans around the abortive Florencia-Fiova merger, which (anecdotally) shifted a lot of opinion on this front. Nevertheless, we're not happy to just shove fundamental reforms through the next Ziu, in which I confidentally predict we'll have a veto-proof majority to do so; we think it would be more democratic to seek a popular mandate on fundamental reforms before pushing them through the Ziu and over royal veto.

[Baron Alexandreu Davinescu]

I don't really foresee a lot of trouble for your bills, don't worry.

[Ian Plätschisch]

There was a special midterm referendum on the monarchy just a few years ago, with 71% of respondents saying they wanted to keep the monarchy and 60% saying they didn't want it to be a figurehead.  I guess this question will be asked over and over in different ways until it produces the answer that is desired.

Of course, that's precisely our strategy; eventually the people will vote for a New Republic just to shut us up.

All silliness aside, the referendum of July 2017 was before the Proclamation Crisis and the various shenanigans around the abortive Florencia-Fiova merger, which (anecdotally) shifted a lot of opinion on this front. Nevertheless, we're not happy to just shove fundamental reforms through the next Ziu, in which I confidentally predict we'll have a veto-proof majority to do so; we think it would be more democratic to seek a popular mandate on fundamental reforms before pushing them through the Ziu and over royal veto.

The FF merger aside, the Proclamation Crisis occurred in 2015.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN]

Miéida sant, time flies when you're having fun  ???

[Béneditsch Ardpresteir]

With a referendum of 3 choices, the present government composed of many republicans actually want to turn this country into a Republic by hook or by crook.  Even with a minority vote in its favour, there are high chances that they may succeed in the second round.

Well played, Miestra ! Definitely a move that you'll win if the citizens fail to see through you.   

[Ian Plätschisch]

With a referendum of 3 choices, the present government composed of many republicans actually want to turn this country into a Republic by hook or by crook.  Even with a minority vote in its favour, there are high chances that they may succeed in the second round.

Well played, Miestra ! Definitely a move that you'll win if the citizens fail to see through you.   

This comment seems not to understand that this would not be binding: any actual amendment would require a majority in favor.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN]

The Senator from Maricopa also does not seem to understand that, in a ranked-choice (IRV/PV) election, there isn't a "second round".

Of course, many true sentences can be made of the form: "The Senator from Maricopa also does not seem to understand that..."

[esbornatfiglheu]

I guess this question will be asked over and over in different ways until it produces the answer that is desired.

The real question is whether or not folks will still turn out to defend the monarchy.  There's little to worry about if it remains an unmitigated good, no?

[Miestră Schivă, UrN]

The good thing is that as long as the monarchist Usual Subjects are being outraged by the referendum, they'll have less energy to get outraged about the subsequent constitutional amendment, if any.

If the 2017 figure of 61% for status-quo re: monarchical power stands, then monarchists only need to worry about... oh, I don't know, the monarchist electorate sulking in their tent like Achilles, refusing to participate in Talossa in protest that the "Wrong Sort of People" now hold political power. But that would be a fantasy, surely.

Sadly, if the Florencia-Fiova referendum is any guide, said monarchists will rouse themselves from their torpor JUST long enough to vote for the status quo, then go back to doing nothing, and blaming their disinterest on the dastardly ex-Republicans.

[Eðo Grischun]

There was a special midterm referendum on the monarchy just a few years ago, with 71% of respondents saying they wanted to keep the monarchy and 60% saying they didn't want it to be a figurehead.  I guess this question will be asked over and over in different ways until it produces the answer that is desired.

Almost as if in a democratic society people can change their opinions over time.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN]

I don't really foresee a lot of trouble for your bills, don't worry.