Talossan Cycling Association Tour Season 3 Leg 2 Firenze -> Nice

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

My strategy of picking cyclers at random has not been working out for me XD

[Sir Lüc]

Quick note to report there's been some sort of illness going around all week - that and/or crashes have recently caused the retirements of the following TCAT riders (in addition to Vlasov and Pedersen earlier on):

- Tim Declercq (PTM)
- Soren Kragh Andersen and Jonas Rickaert (VFL)
- Fabio Jakobsen (MCB)
- Pello Bilbao (BDC/GHS/CHX)
- And sadly, Primož Roglič himself (MCB/VFL/MAN).

Dead2Last is the most impacted team, with 5 riders left; the Cabana Boys have six and BDC has seven. The only teams with all nine riders standing are Ardita, Fieschă, Cjovani and Dead Last.

My strategy of picking cyclers at random has not been working out for me XD

It did go pretty well in the last two legs considering you got 5th place this spring in Giro and 4th place last Vuelta (when you also swept all three side classifications, incidentally!), not as much this time around unfortunately :(

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

My strategy of picking cyclers at random has not been working out for me XD

It did go pretty well in the last two legs considering you got 5th place this spring in Giro and 4th place last Vuelta (when you also swept all three side classifications, incidentally!), not as much this time around unfortunately :(

Haha touché

RIP Fabio!

[Glüc]

Update to be posted here soon/later

Standings after stage 13:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	4664	+302
2nd	(+1)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4302	+392
3rd	(-1)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	4149	+199
4th	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	4008	+280
5th	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Tavulairs (BDC)	3787	+201
6th	(=)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	3681	+298
7th	(=)	Ardita Benito (ARB)	3624	+307
8th	(=)	Maricopan Manilows (MAN)	3623	+312
9th	(=)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	3616	+322
10th	(=)	Dead2Last (VFL)	2379	+78
11th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	2234	+51

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

Apparently I need to change our name from MCB to MCBB: Maricopa Cabana Bottom Boys.... wait.

[Glüc]

First Pyrenees stage yesterday. Pogacar won. Cyclohexane scored the most points.

Standings after stage 14:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	5314	+650
2nd	(=)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	4980	+678
3rd	(=)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	4909	+760
4th	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	4842	+834
5th	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Tavulairs (BDC)	4488	+701
6th	(+3)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	4217	+601
7th	(-1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4212	+531
8th	(-1)	Ardita Benito (ARB)	4041	+417
9th	(-1)	Maricopan Manilows (MAN)	3997	+374
10th	(=)	Dead2Last (VFL)	2660	+281
11th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	2416	+182

Today we get the second Pyrenees stage with a lot of climbing and opportunities for big timegaps.

[Sir Lüc]

Situation as of yesterday's stage 15, another Pyrenees summit finish that went to Pogacar, once again unreachable by Vingegaard, Evenepoel and all other GC outsiders:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	5948	+634
2nd	(+1)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	5669	+760
3rd	(+1)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5564	+722
4th	(-2)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	5548	+568
5th	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Tavulairs (BDC)	5096	+608
6th	(+1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4790	+578
7th	(-1)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	4766	+549
8th	(=)	Ardita Benito (ARB)	4531	+490
9th	(=)	Maricopan Manilows (MAN)	4344	+347
10th	(=)	Dead2Last (VFL)	2958	+298
11th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	2625	+209

Also a few usual words on the situation as we reach the third and last week.

I've chosen to focus a bit on the individual riders and specifically on identifying the "good picks", which I would describe as the riders who score 100 points or more per credit (so that would mean Pogacar scoring at least 2800 points, for instance).

I have already touched upon this metric, but I have refined my estimations by taking into account End of Tour Points, which are not scored during stages but rather at the end, as large bonuses to the top 30 riders in GC, top 10 riders in the Points Classification (typically sprinters), top 10 riders in the King of Mountains Classification (typically climbers) and all riders in the top 5 teams in the Teams's Classification.

TCAT Riders who have already scored 100 points per credit
Just two in TCAT: Anthony Turgis (CHX), overperforming by 37%, and Pascal Ackermann (DED/ARB/CJO), though not a stage winner, ammassed 3 third places and 3 other top 10s to currently overperform by 41%. (Non-TCAT, obviously, Biniam Girmay has overperformed by a massive 92%)

TCAT Riders who have already scored 100 points per credit considering expected End of Tour Points
(This basically means we're considering these riders to have already scored the EoT points computed on the classifications as they stand today. So they could do better, but they could also do worse if they lose positions in any of the classifications.)
These are:
- Tadej Pogačar (CHX/CFA/BDC/CJO/GHS)
- Remco Evenepoel (DED/CFA/PTM)
- João Almeida (ARB/MAN)
- Jonas Abrahamsen (DED)

TCAT Riders that have NOT already scored 100 points per credit, even considering expected EoT points, but can be reasonably expected to do so
(Meaning they will reach 100ppc with the six remaining stages and EoT points. This sounds worse somehow but they still are good picks because it might simply mean the schedule was not favouring them earlier on. This is particularly relevant below where I remark on the last two stages, which were both summit finishes for GC contenders, of which we have three left)
These are:
- Jonas Vingegaard (DED/ARB/VFL/CFA/CJO/PTM) needs to score 63 points per stage, has scored 92 per stage so far;
- Carlos Rodriguez (CHX/BDC/MAN/MCB/GHS) needs 68 per stage, has scored 46 per stage (but 172 and 97 in the last two);
- Adam Yates (CHX/BDC) needs 72 per stage, has scored 46 per stage (but 137 and 154 in the last two);
- Santiago Buitrago (CHX/GHS) needs 36 per stage, has scored 27 per stage (but 125 and 110 in the last two);
- Ben Healy (MAN) needs 49 per stage, has scored 25 per stage (but 62 and 40 in the last two - bit shakier this but he also has a good TT in him for stage 21);
- Derek Gee (CHX/DED/BDC/GHS) needs 22 per stage, has scored 32 per stage (but 72 and 52 in the last two).

Addendum: sprinters (and unclassed sprinters)
I've chosen to treat these separately as there's just one sprint finish left, plus five variously contestable intermediate sprints worth at most 20pts each (so a bit, but not much). This still considers EoT points as they would stand today.
- Fernando Gaviria (GHS) needs just 33 points across all six stages. Seems very doable.
- Ryan Gibbons (CFA) needs 143 - he scored 112 in his best stage so he needs to do that + contest intermediate sprints. Still a good pick even if he doesn't considering how cheap he is.
- Arnaud De Lie (ARB/BDC) needs 177 - a top five is worth 120 and he has five of those so far. He also has a passive income of 4 points per stage off his PC standing. Also doable, also a good pick.

All other sprinters, starting with Marijn van den Berg (CFA) and Bryan Coquard (CHX), need upwards of 280 points and are therefore probably not going to get the good pick badge.

[Sir Lüc]

So what does this mean for the current podium contenders?
- DED has five good picks - 62 credits's worth of them, no retirements, and an additional stage winner in Groenewegen;
- CFA has four, but worth 74 credits, and also no retirements - which is why I still think they're poised to win;
- CHX has six! good picks, worth 76 credits, but is dogged by two retirements and Coquard being decent but not good enough;
- GHS has five good picks (worth 64c), one retirement, and a definite disappointment in Philipsen (needs 407 points to reach 100ppc, so that disqualification really hurt);

The other teams actually have their fair share of good picks (5 for BDC, 4 for ARD for instance), but have mostly either dealt with retirements, or perhaps the good picks were worth too few credits, or they made bad picks which dragged them backwards.

I haven't analysed bad picks in particular depth but the riders that are placed the worst at the moment are Simon Yates (595 points behind where he'd need to be at this point to be worth it), Enric Mas (566), Mathieu van der Poel (550), Lenny Martinez (549), Egan Bernal (532), Jai Hindley (514) and Magnus Cort (498).

(Yup, leader DED has two "worst picks"! But they're no worse than retirements, and CFA's Haig and Poels are no much better.)

[Tric’hard Lenxheir]

So what does this mean for the current podium contenders?
- DED has five good picks - 62 credits's worth of them, no retirements, and an additional stage winner in Groenewegen;
- CFA has four, but worth 74 credits, and also no retirements - which is why I still think they're poised to win;
- CHX has six! good picks, worth 76 credits, but is dogged by two retirements and Coquard being decent but not good enough;
- GHS has five good picks (worth 64c), one retirement, and a definite disappointment in Philipsen (needs 407 points to reach 100ppc, so that disqualification really hurt);

The other teams actually have their fair share of good picks (5 for BDC, 4 for ARD for instance), but have mostly either dealt with retirements, or perhaps the good picks were worth too few credits, or they made bad picks which dragged them backwards.

I haven't analysed bad picks in particular depth but the riders that are placed the worst at the moment are Simon Yates (595 points behind where he'd need to be at this point to be worth it), Enric Mas (566), Mathieu van der Poel (550), Lenny Martinez (549), Egan Bernal (532), Jai Hindley (514) and Magnus Cort (498).

(Yup, leader DED has two "worst picks"! But they're no worse than retirements, and CFA's Haig and Poels are no much better.)

I am still confident that everyone can catch me!

[Glüc]

Stage 16 Gruissan -> Nîmes

Unusually, because the finish is not in Paris, today was already the final sprint stage. There was a crash near the finish that took some riders out of contention for the stage win. Philipsen (MAN/GHS) won his second stage, with Van Aert (PTM), Ackermann (DED/ARB/CJO), Coquard (CHX), Gibbons (CFA), Bissegger (CJO), Van der Poel (ARB/MAN), Gaviria (GHS) and Groenewegen (DED) also making the top 20 in that order. Groenewegen and De Lie didn't really compete for the top spots which is bad news for BdC, Dead Last and Ardita.

GHST got the most points today and gained two places. However, they will not be happy with this being the last sprint. It will be difficult for them to defend their second place against Cyclohexane and Fiescha, who are looking well positioned to challenge Dead Last for the overall victory.

Unfortunately the count of dropouts (especially due to sickness) also continues to rise with Van Gils (ARB) and Harper (CJO) not starting today.


Standings after stage 16:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	6167	+219
2nd	(+2)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	5919	+371
3rd	(-1)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	5870	+201
4th	(-1)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5824	+260
5th	(=)	Banqeu da Cézembre Tavulairs (BDC)	5216	+120
6th	(+1)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	5016	+250
7th	(-1)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	4989	+199
8th	(=)	Ardita Benito (ARB)	4786	+255
9th	(=)	Maricopan Manilows (MAN)	4713	+369
10th	(=)	Dead2Last (VFL)	3002	+44
11th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	2651	+26

Tomorrow we arrive at the outskirts of the Alps for a sort of intermediate climbing stage with an uphill finish at something called Superdevoluy (which isn't quite as exciting as the Super Plance des Belles Filles, or as we call it, the Supergaaf, but nice name nonetheless). This could be one for the GC contenders, but an early break could definitely also be succesful.

[Tric’hard Lenxheir]

Come on MCB, VFL, MAN, ARB, PTM, CJO, BDC, CHX, CFA and GHS I know you can all catch me!!!

[Sir Lüc]

Come on MCB, VFL, MAN, ARB, PTM, CJO, BDC, CHX, CFA and GHS I know you can all catch me!!!

That seems unlikely to me ;)

[Carlüs Éovart Vilaçafat]

I prefer to take solace in stealing Breneir's dream of stealing last place from Dead Last.

[Glüc]

Yesterday we got a big break. The stage was won by Carapaz, which resulted in Port Maxhestic scoring the most points.

Standings after stage 17:

Pos	±	Team	Pts Ove	Pts Today
1st	(=)	Dead Last (DED)	6402	+235
2nd	(+1)	Cézembre Fieschā (CFA)	6081	+211
3rd	(-1)	Gordon Hiatus Support Team (GHS)	6063	+144
4th	(=)	Cyclohexane (CHX)	5959	+135
5th	(+2)	Port Maxhestic AC (PTM)	5439	+450
6th	(-1)	Banqeu da Cézembre Tavulairs (BDC)	5329	+113
7th	(-1)	Naziun Cjovani (CJO)	5143	+127
8th	(=)	Ardita Benito (ARB)	5069	+283
9th	(=)	Maricopan Manilows (MAN)	4811	+98
10th	(=)	Dead2Last (VFL)	3177	+175
11th	(=)	Maricopa Cabana Boys (MCB)	2842	+191

[Breneir Tzaracomprada]

I prefer to take solace in stealing Breneir's dream of stealing last place from Dead Last.

I am so disappointed that we will not achieve the Deads bracketing.