Election Predictions

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

FreeDems - 87
B - 33
LCC - 25
NPW - 23
TNC - 15
KLuP - 7
DIEN - 6
PT - 4

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

No exact science here, just trying to estimate the size of each party's draw.

The big story here I guess is my prediction of a dramatic decline for the LCC. This is really only because, when I founded the party just before the last election, there was literally no Monarchist competition, so it was the only game in town. Now there is the Balance Party for very conservative voters, Dien for very conservative voters who don't like the Balance Party's messaging, and the TNC for Monarchists who want to accept the compromise bill wholeheartedly.

I am pleased with the LCC's decision to carve out a unique position for itself (see its new 50 word statement), but it is only natural that it will not be able to get nearly as many votes as before. Obviously I hope it does better than what I am predicting.

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

The Balance Party's fortunes are heavily dependent on their ability to turn out the old RUMP base. That could really go either way. It went pretty poorly for the ZPT two elections ago, who won a meager 25 seats, even when the only other non-ceremonial Monarchist party at the time was AMP. However, that is partially because the family of the founder of that party did not vote. On the other hand, the LCC got a respectable 73 seats, which was in part due to ex-RUMP support.

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

I don't predict a lot of success for Dien, because I suspect that most conservative Monarchists are not really in Dien's "circle." Maybe I'm wrong but I don't see a big constituency for Dien's wholehearted support for the King outside of the camp who think the Balance Party's memes about hamster wheels are a slam dunk, or who are otherwise culturally attached to the old RUMP.

FYI this is not a rip on Dien; we should hang out the next time I'm in Savannah.

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

Recall that the PNP (Peculiar Nationalist Party, supported a ceremonial Monarchy) leader folded the party and joined the Free Democrats before the 55th Cosa. It appears about half of the party's support followed him there and the other half went to the NPW:

54th Cosa:
FREEDEM - 84
PNP - 25
NPW - 15

55th Cosa:
FREEDEM - 99
NPW - 28

So the NPW got 14% of the Cosa seats in the 55th, which is shockingly similar to the proportion of people who put the NPW's preferred option (a King/President duarchy) as their first choice in the referendum earlier this year:

10/72 = 13.89%

The NPW may have benefitted last time from a shortage of third parties (and there is no shortage of those this time), but there is strong evidence that their appeal has some staying power

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

My gut tells me that TNC support would mostly come from marginal FreeDem supporters (who might be getting bored of voting for the same party over and over and who now have another option to get the compromise proposal through), but the last time the TNC ran (way back in 2016) it mostly took support from the ModRads. Now, I'm not sure how relevant that is, but if it continues to be true it could be trouble for the LCC, which has now positioned itself as the most moderate party not wholeheartedly supporting the Compromise.

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

The FreeDem machinery and base are obviously in a class of their own compared to the other parties, and I can't remember the last time predicting the winner was so boring. However, I think there are just too many other parties for them to be able to improve on their 99 seats.

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

Finally, I predicted the jokester parties would do about as well as they usually do.

[Sir Ian Plätschisch]

Maybe all of this is wrong, who knows.

[Miestră Schivă, UrN-GC]

The FreeDem machinery and base are obviously in a class of their own compared to the other parties

Why, thank you - though our "machinery" is nothing but "Miestră reading the list of people who haven't voted yet and haranguing them"

Your figures would mean 129 for 55RZ21, 39 against, and 32 undetermined, which is technically defined as "a goddamn mess". (Worth noting that the KLüP politely refused to join our joint statement.)

[Munditenens Tresplet]

FYI this is not a rip on Dien; we should hang out the next time I'm in Savannah.

Absolutely, except that I'm giving up my lease at the end of June. My job has taken me back to Bryson City, NC, so unless you're coming down to GA one weekend between now and June, I'll have to take you around Bryson. The upside is we have good craft beer.

[Tierçéu Rôibeardescù]

FD: 80
B - 34
LCC - 40
NPW - 15
TNC - 12
KLuP - 8
DIEN - 7
PT - 4

No snubs, just predicting, I'm optimistic.... Is that a crime? xD

[Miestră Schivă, UrN-GC]

With numbers like that, the LCC might have to consider forming a government

[Tierçéu Rôibeardescù]

With numbers like that, the LCC might have to consider forming a government

If I understand the numbers so would the free Dems?

[xpb]

I suppose unless and until someone else joins the list at https://talossa.net/members/xpb/activity/439/ I would estimate the number of Balançeu / Balance at a total of 1.